TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ CIN

Great American Ball Park is live · 1.46×

CLE @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 7:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.22× Wind 7 mph slight_out 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

7:10p

+7 ↑

8:10p

+7 ↑

9:10p

+7 ↑

10:10p

+7 ↑

11:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · +7 FIT

Best of game Kyle Manzardo conv 26 · vs Singer ⟷ Sal Stewart conv 35 · vs Cantillo → edge: Sal Stewart

ATTACK Brady Singer RHP · CIN

leak 93

1.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.13 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Manzardo — C ●●●●○

2 Patrick Bailey — C ●●●○○

3 Travis Bazzana — C ●●●○○

FADE Joey Cantillo LHP · CLE

leak 77

1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · stingy — thin edge

1 Sal Stewart — C+ ●●●●●

2 Elly De La Cruz — C+ ●●●●●

3 Ke'Bryan Hayes — D ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Sal Stewart: 13.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 36.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Sal Stewart ✶ vs Cantillo Edge — 0.217 · 90.5 · 10.1% 36.4% 33.1% F B O C+ 65

· CIN Elly De La Cruz vs Cantillo Edge — 0.227 · 94.3 · 10.4% 25.0% 39.3% F B O C+ 66

· CLE Kyle Manzardo HOT vs Singer Edge — 0.149 · 89.5 · 10.3% 30.0% 22.4% F B O C 59

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Singer Edge — 0.110 · 90.3 · 8.2% 25.0% 18.0% F B O C 51

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Singer Edge — 0.161 · 88.1 · 6.5% 21.4% 18.7% F B O C 53

· CIN Eugenio Suarez HOT vs Cantillo Edge +750 0.195 · 88.4 · 8.6% 0.0% 29.3% F B O C 52

· CIN Tyler Stephenson HOT vs Cantillo Edge +950 0.147 · 91.0 · 9.1% 10.0% 16.4% F B O C 50

· CLE Gabriel Arias COOL vs Singer — 0.153 · 91.4 · 10.2% 0.0% 17.4% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· CIN Ke'Bryan Hayes vs Cantillo Edge — 0.091 · 90.9 · 7.5% 33.3% 15.9% F B O D 46

· CLE Petey Halpin COOL vs Singer Edge — 0.124 · 87.0 · 8.5% 9.1% 11.9% F B O D 49

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Singer Edge — 0.130 · 86.6 · 5.5% 7.1% 10.8% F B O D 46

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Singer Edge — 0.165 · 91.1 · 7.8% 0.0% 15.3% F B O D 49

· CIN Noelvi Marte COOL vs Cantillo Edge — 0.166 · 87.7 · 6.3% 0.0% 15.0% F B O D 48

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Singer Edge — 0.169 · 89.4 · 7.5% 0.0% 13.5% F B O D 49

· CIN Dane Myers COOL vs Cantillo Edge — 0.114 · 89.8 · 6.6% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 43

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Singer Edge — 0.060 · 83.4 · 1.7% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 32

· CIN Edwin Arroyo COOL vs Cantillo — 0.041 · 87.5 · 2.7% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.7% ← leak BRK 42.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Kyle Manzardo L Edge

11.9% 13.0% 11.5% C 59 —

Gabriel Arias R

3.4% 23.1% 11.1% C 54 —

Travis Bazzana L Edge

4.4% 3.9% 4.2% C 53 —

Patrick Bailey S Edge

10.7% 5.1% 7.5% C 51 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Chase Delauter L Edge

9.2% 5.3% 6.6% D 49 —

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — D 49 —

Petey Halpin L Edge

7.5% 10.5% 7.9% D 49 —

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.5% 5.3% 3.2% D 46 —

210

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.5% 0.0% 0.3% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.7% usage) carries Singer's damage — FB is the leak. 8 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 40.4% ← leak BRK 32.7% OFF 26.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

19.6% 12.2% 3.8% 14.6% C+ 66 —

Sal Stewart R Edge

17.1% 9.5% 10.3% 13.9% C+ 65 —

Eugenio Suarez R Edge

12.0% 5.9% 6.7% 10.2% C 52 +750

Tyler Stephenson R Edge

14.3% 7.5% 6.2% 11.6% C 50 +950

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Noelvi Marte R Edge

1.6% 12.1% 7.1% 5.4% D 48 —

Ke'Bryan Hayes R Edge

8.9% 6.5% 0.0% 7.7% D 46 —

114

Dane Myers R Edge

5.5% 6.5% 6.7% 5.9% D 43 —

183

Edwin Arroyo L

1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (40.4% usage) carries Cantillo's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Manzardo Bazzana Bailey Cruz Stewart Suarez Stephenson Hayes

Legend

attack side — vs Singer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Sal Stewart — · 65

Elly De La Cruz — · 66

Kyle Manzardo — · 59

Patrick Bailey — · 51

Travis Bazzana — · 53

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.22× Wind 7 mph slight_out 79°F open

↑

5 mph · cross

75°F

7:10p · peak

↑

5 mph · cross

75°F

8:10p

↑

5 mph · cross

75°F

9:10p

↑

5 mph · cross

75°F

10:10p

↑

5 mph · cross

75°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.46× 79°F, wind 7 mph N (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brady Singer · RHP 1.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.13 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Manzardo 59 C — HOT 19 0.149 89.5 10.3% 20.0%vs RHP 383 12.6% 30.0% 22.4% 17

2 Gabriel Arias 54 C — COOL 34 0.153 91.4 10.2% 50.0%vs RHP 416 10.0% 0.0% 17.4% 11

3 Travis Bazzana 53 C — WARM 38 0.161 88.1 6.5% 20.0%vs RHP 396 12.3% 21.4% 18.7% 31

4 Patrick Bailey 51 C — WARM 50 0.110 90.3 8.2% 12.9%vs RHP 405 6.3% 25.0% 18.0% 21

5 Chase Delauter 49 D — · 60 0.165 91.1 7.8% 23.4%vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 15.3% 34

6 Jose Ramirez 49 D — COOL 61 0.169 89.4 7.5% 12.1%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 23

7 Petey Halpin 49 D — COOL 64 0.124 87.0 8.5% 8.7%vs RHP 404 4.8% 9.1% 11.9% 34

8 Brayan Rocchio 46 D — · 85 0.130 86.6 5.5% 14.0%vs RHP 386 7.8% 7.1% 10.8% 40

9 Steven Kwan 32 D — COOL 210 0.060 83.4 1.7% 1.8%vs RHP 381 1.0% 0.0% 8.8% 36

vs Joey Cantillo · LHP 1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz 66 C+ — · 7 0.227 94.3 10.4% 45.0%vs LHP 398 17.4% 25.0% 39.3% 33

2 Sal Stewart ✶ 65 C+ — · 10 0.217 90.5 10.1% 30.0%vs LHP 393 15.4% 36.4% 33.1% 30

3 Eugenio Suarez 52 C +750 HOT 42 0.195 88.4 8.6% 28.6%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 29.3% 21

4 Tyler Stephenson 50 C +950 HOT 58 0.147 91.0 9.1% 5.9%vs LHP 395 7.2% 10.0% 16.4% 18

5 Noelvi Marte 48 D — COOL 72 0.166 87.7 6.3% 30.0%vs LHP 407 11.6% 0.0% 15.0% 18

6 Ke'Bryan Hayes 46 D — WARM 80 0.091 90.9 7.5% 16.7%vs LHP 372 8.6% 33.3% 15.9% 13

7 Dane Myers 43 D — COOL 114 0.114 89.8 6.6% 11.8%vs LHP 378 5.4% 0.0% 9.5% 19

8 Edwin Arroyo 34 D — COOL 183 0.041 87.5 2.7% 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 22

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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