TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ MIA

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PHI @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 12:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 11 mph slight_out 85°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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12:10p

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1:10p

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2:10p

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3:10p

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4:10p

best window is early — 12:10p at +1

Best of game Heriberto Hernández conv 15 · vs Luzardo ⟷ Bryce Harper conv 24 · vs Gusto → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Jesús Luzardo LHP · PHI

leak 80

0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · leakiest side of this game

1 Heriberto Hernández +500 D ●●○○○

2 Kyle Stowers +700 D ●●○○○

3 Liam Hicks — D ●○○○○

FADE Ryan Gusto RHP · MIA

leak 41

0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · stingy — thin edge

1 Bryce Harper +400 C ●●●●○

2 Trea Turner +700 D ●●●○○

3 Alec Bohm +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 17.3% · 14D pace 10.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Gusto Edge +400 0.239 · 90.1 · 9.7% 20.0% 27.4% F B O C 55

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Gusto Edge +210 0.293 · 93.3 · 12.1% 10.0% 17.3% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· PHI Trea Turner HOT vs Gusto +700 0.145 · 89.0 · 7.3% 30.0% 13.3% F B O D 41

· MIA Heriberto Hernández HOT vs Luzardo Edge +500 0.241 · 92.2 · 8.7% 0.0% 29.9% F B O D 44

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Gusto +750 0.143 · 90.5 · 6.6% 20.0% 9.5% F B O D 38

· PHI Brandon Marsh vs Gusto Edge +575 0.180 · 89.6 · 8.8% 12.5% 10.7% F B O D 44

· MIA Kyle Stowers vs Luzardo +700 0.208 · 91.7 · 8.2% 10.0% 12.8% F B O D 43

· MIA Liam Hicks COOL vs Luzardo — 0.159 · 85.2 · 4.8% 10.0% 8.8% F B O D 34

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Gusto Edge +525 0.157 · 89.1 · 7.8% 10.0% 7.8% F B O D 39

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Luzardo Edge +850 0.165 · 89.4 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 34

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Luzardo Edge — 0.112 · 87.0 · 4.9% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 27

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Luzardo — 0.094 · 86.8 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 26

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Luzardo Edge — 0.125 · 86.8 · 3.0% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 26

· PHI J.T. Realmuto COOL vs Gusto +850 0.131 · — · 6.1% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 29

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Gusto Edge — 0.084 · 86.6 · 2.7% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.5% BRK 28.5% OFF 18.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

17.7% 15.3% 26.9% 18.0% C+ 61 +210

Bryce Harper L Edge

10.2% 15.0% 7.0% 11.2% C 55 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Brandon Marsh L Edge

8.3% 15.1% 2.8% 9.4% D 44 +575

118

Trea Turner R

8.5% 5.0% 0.0% 6.5% D 41 +700

140

Bryson Stott L Edge

9.3% 4.8% 5.8% 7.4% D 39 +525

146

Alec Bohm R

5.0% 4.8% 9.1% 5.4% D 38 +750

207

J.T. Realmuto R

4.4% 4.0% 6.2% 4.5% D 29 +850

232

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% D 24 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Gusto's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 43.4% ← leak BRK 37.7% OFF 18.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Heriberto Hernández R Edge

12.7% 13.5% 14.3% 13.1% D 44 +500

107

Kyle Stowers L

11.8% 16.3% 5.4% 11.7% D 43 +700

169

Otto Lopez R Edge

10.1% 3.9% 2.0% 6.7% D 34 +850

171

Liam Hicks L

3.4% 5.8% 3.8% 4.0% D 34 —

218

Xavier Edwards S Edge

5.0% 2.7% 3.2% 4.2% D 27 —

222

Jakob Marsee L

2.8% 2.3% 8.3% 3.5% D 26 —

224

Javier Sanoja R Edge

1.5% 2.5% 0.0% 1.7% D 26 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.4% usage) carries Luzardo's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Turner Bohm Hernández

Legend

attack side — vs Luzardo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Bryce Harper +400 · 55

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 12:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 11 mph slight_out 85°F retractable

↑

12 mph · slight_out

83°F

12:10p · peak

↑

12 mph · slight_out

83°F

1:10p

-1

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13 mph · slight_out

83°F

2:10p

↑

13 mph · slight_out

84°F

3:10p

↑

14 mph · slight_out

85°F

4:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.10× 85°F, wind 11 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Gusto · RHP 0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 61 C+ +210 COOL 15 0.293 93.3 12.1% 41.2%vs RHP 403 24.2% 10.0% 17.3% 23

2 Bryce Harper 55 C +400 · 33 0.239 90.1 9.7% 36.5%vs RHP 401 19.6% 20.0% 27.4% 22

3 Brandon Marsh 44 D +575 · 99 0.180 89.6 8.8% 23.2%vs RHP 393 13.5% 12.5% 10.7% 23

4 Trea Turner 41 D +700 HOT 118 0.145 89.0 7.3% 19.3%vs RHP 391 13.0% 30.0% 13.3% 28

5 Bryson Stott 39 D +525 · 140 0.157 89.1 7.8% 9.9%vs RHP 389 8.2% 10.0% 7.8% 23

6 Alec Bohm 38 D +750 WARM 146 0.143 90.5 6.6% 18.9%vs RHP 396 12.1% 20.0% 9.5% 33

7 J.T. Realmuto 29 D +850 COOL 207 0.131 — 6.1% 18.2%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 25

8 Justin Crawford 24 D — COOL 232 0.084 86.6 2.7% 5.6%vs RHP 382 2.7% 0.0% 6.1% 18

vs Jesús Luzardo · LHP 0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Heriberto Hernández 44 D +500 HOT 95 0.241 92.2 8.7% 42.1%vs LHP 410 0.0% 0.0% 29.9% 25

2 Kyle Stowers 43 D +700 · 107 0.208 91.7 8.2% 14.3%vs LHP 397 11.7% 10.0% 12.8% 22

3 Otto Lopez 34 D +850 COOL 169 0.165 89.4 6.2% 8.7%vs LHP 402 7.8% 0.0% 8.7% 29

4 Liam Hicks 34 D — COOL 171 0.159 85.2 4.8% 7.1%vs LHP 378 14.8% 10.0% 8.8% 28

5 Xavier Edwards 27 D — COOL 218 0.112 87.0 4.9% 23.5%vs LHP 396 4.9% 0.0% 8.5% 26

6 Jakob Marsee 26 D — WARM 222 0.094 86.8 4.5% 12.5%vs LHP 379 6.0% 0.0% 7.9% 15

7 Javier Sanoja 26 D — WARM 224 0.125 86.8 3.0% 12.5%vs LHP 385 4.4% 0.0% 7.4% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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