TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ SD

Playable air · 1.09×

COL @ SD

Petco Park · 4:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind 8 mph slight_out 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

1:10p

+1 ↑

2:10p

+1 ↑

3:10p

+1 ↑

4:10p

+1 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at +2

Best of game Hunter Goodman conv 26 · vs Proxy ⟷ Ty France conv 31 · vs Hughes → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK SD Bullpen Proxy · ATL

leak 55

1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Hunter Goodman +280 B ●●●●○

2 Willi Castro — D ●●●○○

3 Jake Mccarthy +850 D ●○○○○

FADE Gabriel Hughes RHP · COL

leak 3

0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.59 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ty France +500 C ●●●●●

2 Jackson Merrill +400 D ●●●●○

3 Manny Machado +350 D ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: Match 27.8% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Ty France vs Hughes +500 0.260 · 92.5 · 7.5% 40.0% 22.0% F B O C 51

· — Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Proxy +280 0.297 · 90.7 · 17.0% 25.0% 27.8% F B O B 70

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· SD Jackson Merrill HOT vs Hughes Edge +400 0.160 · 89.8 · 7.0% 44.4% 11.8% F B O D 41

· SD Manny Machado vs Hughes +350 0.228 · 90.4 · 7.2% 30.0% 19.4% F B O D 48

· — Willi Castro vs Proxy — 0.137 · 87.9 · 7.6% 33.3% 12.1% F B O D 41

· — Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Proxy +850 0.204 · 85.3 · 5.3% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 39

· — Tj Rumfield vs Proxy +750 0.177 · 83.7 · 5.2% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 35

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs Hughes Edge +525 0.183 · 87.7 · 5.7% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 35

· — Kyle Karros COOL vs Proxy +750 0.162 · 89.6 · 8.2% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 40

· — Edouard Julien COOL vs Proxy +850 0.084 · 91.2 · 7.0% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 32

· — Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Proxy +575 0.122 · 87.3 · 6.4% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 33

· — Tyler Freeman COOL vs Proxy — 0.072 · 87.6 · 1.4% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 23

· — Troy Johnston vs Proxy +850 0.110 · 89.8 · 2.0% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 26

· SD Xander Bogaerts COOL vs Hughes +700 0.103 · 88.1 · 5.4% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 27

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Hughes Edge +575 0.079 · 88.1 · 5.0% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.4% BRK 29.7% OFF 8.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Ty France R

12.2% 12.7% 7.7% 11.8% C 51 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Manny Machado R

13.5% 7.1% 7.9% 10.9% D 48 +350

119

Jackson Merrill L Edge

12.4% 10.1% 6.3% 10.4% D 41 +400

166

Gavin Sheets L Edge

9.4% 4.4% 1.9% 6.8% D 35 +525

219

Xander Bogaerts R

7.9% 2.7% 4.0% 6.1% D 27 +700

230

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

5.6% 4.8% 4.5% 5.3% D 25 +575

Read the columns: no single family leads Hughes's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for SD Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → France Machado Merrill Goodman Castro

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Ty France +500 · 51

Hunter Goodman +280 · 70

Manny Machado +350 · 48

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.91× Wind 8 mph slight_out 84°F open

↑

8 mph · slight_out

82°F

1:10p · peak

↑

9 mph · slight_out

84°F

2:10p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

83°F

3:10p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

82°F

4:10p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

81°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.09× 84°F, wind 8 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Gabriel Hughes · RHP 0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.59 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 51 C +500 WARM 56 0.260 92.5 7.5% 37.1%vs RHP 394 20.0% 40.0% 22.0% 32

2 Manny Machado 48 D +350 WARM 69 0.228 90.4 7.2% 30.6%vs RHP 397 21.0% 30.0% 19.4% 34

3 Jackson Merrill 41 D +400 HOT 119 0.160 89.8 7.0% 18.2%vs RHP 409 14.3% 44.4% 11.8% 32

4 Gavin Sheets 35 D +525 COOL 166 0.183 87.7 5.7% 30.0%vs RHP 397 11.0% 0.0% 9.1% 25

5 Xander Bogaerts 27 D +700 COOL 219 0.103 88.1 5.4% 16.0%vs RHP 396 8.2% 0.0% 5.6% 28

6 Jake Cronenworth 25 D +575 COOL 230 0.079 88.1 5.0% 14.3%vs RHP 389 1.8% 0.0% 5.5% 24

vs SD Bullpen Proxy 1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 70 B +280 COOL 6 0.297 90.7 17.0% 31.6% 411 24.7% 25.0% 27.8% 16

2 Willi Castro 41 D — WARM 148 0.137 87.9 7.6% 10.8% 414 10.0% 33.3% 12.1% 25

3 Kyle Karros 40 D +750 COOL 157 0.162 89.6 8.2% 13.2% 417 10.8% 0.0% 8.8% 21

4 Jake Mccarthy 39 D +850 COOL 162 0.204 85.3 5.3% 13.7% 419 14.3% 0.0% 11.2% 30

5 Tj Rumfield 35 D +750 · 192 0.177 83.7 5.2% 12.4% 410 7.1% 0.0% 9.5% 24

6 Ezequiel Tovar 33 D +575 COOL 205 0.122 87.3 6.4% 8.3% 410 7.5% 0.0% 6.6% 14

7 Edouard Julien 32 D +850 COOL 210 0.084 91.2 7.0% 8.6% 400 3.8% 0.0% 6.7% 10

8 Troy Johnston 26 D +850 WARM 236 0.110 89.8 2.0% 4.5% 415 1.3% 0.0% 6.2% 20

9 Tyler Freeman 23 D — COOL 240 0.072 87.6 1.4% 5.8% 369 2.1% 0.0% 6.3% 16

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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