TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ DET

Comerica Park is live · 1.22×

BAL @ DET

Comerica Park · 1:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.87× Wind 12 mph slight_out 78°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

1:10p

+5 ↑

2:10p

+5 ↑

3:10p

+5 ↑

4:10p

+4 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at +5

Best of game Coby Mayo conv 29 · vs Skubal ⟷ Dillon Dingler conv 22 · vs Rogers → edge: Dillon Dingler

ATTACK Tarik Skubal LHP · DET

leak 68

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · leakiest side of this game

1 Coby Mayo +370 D ●●●●●

2 Gunnar Henderson +625 D ●●○○○

3 Pete Alonso +320 D ●●○○○

FADE Trevor Rogers LHP · BAL

leak 63

0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · stingy — thin edge

1 Dillon Dingler +390 C ●●●○○

2 Spencer Torkelson +350 D ●●●○○

3 Riley Greene +425 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dillon Dingler: 11.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 20.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Dillon Dingler ✶ COOL vs Rogers Edge +390 0.255 · 89.4 · 8.7% 20.0% 23.4% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Skubal Edge +370 0.213 · 92.5 · 8.7% 33.3% 25.5% F B O D 46

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Rogers Edge +350 0.210 · 90.0 · 9.7% 20.0% 17.9% F B O D 48

· DET Riley Greene vs Rogers +425 0.181 · 91.4 · 10.3% 18.2% 10.4% F B O D 44

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Skubal +625 0.180 · 89.4 · 7.0% 9.1% 16.9% F B O D 39

· BAL Pete Alonso vs Skubal Edge +320 0.216 · 94.1 · 9.3% 9.1% 11.7% F B O D 45

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Skubal Edge +850 0.124 · 87.3 · 5.8% 12.5% 6.3% F B O D 28

· BAL Taylor Ward vs Skubal Edge +525 0.104 · 89.2 · 6.3% 9.1% 7.2% F B O D 28

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Skubal — 0.125 · 87.0 · 8.5% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 33

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Rogers Edge +525 0.101 · 85.5 · 7.0% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 30

· DET Colt Keith COOL vs Rogers — 0.141 · 88.6 · 7.1% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 33

· DET Matt Vierling vs Rogers Edge +700 0.117 · 87.7 · 5.8% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 29

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Rogers +575 0.135 · 88.1 · 7.1% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 31

· DET Zach Mckinstry vs Rogers — 0.104 · 85.2 · 4.4% 0.0% 4.8% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 56.3% ← leak OFF 25.3% BRK 18.4% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Coby Mayo R Edge

11.0% 10.5% 10.9% 10.9% D 46 +370

Pete Alonso R Edge

14.1% 15.2% 8.3% 12.5% D 45 +320

141

Gunnar Henderson L

7.4% 7.6% 6.2% 7.1% D 39 +625

183

Colton Cowser L

14.7% 2.5% 10.8% 10.3% D 33 —

213

Taylor Ward R Edge

8.2% 2.9% 1.3% 5.7% D 28 +525

214

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.2% 0.0% 9.3% 4.4% D 28 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.3% usage) carries Skubal's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 64.6% ← leak OFF 22.6% BRK 12.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dillon Dingler R Edge

12.5% 8.1% 9.8% 11.3% C 52 +390

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Spencer Torkelson R Edge

15.2% 16.7% 10.9% 14.3% D 48 +350

101

Riley Greene L

17.3% 8.0% 16.4% 15.4% D 44 +425

184

Colt Keith L

7.6% 3.8% 13.2% 7.6% D 33 —

198

Kevin Mcgonigle L

8.8% 1.9% 7.6% 7.4% D 31 +575

203

Gleyber Torres R Edge

8.4% 0.0% 5.9% 7.2% D 30 +525

209

Matt Vierling R Edge

7.6% 0.0% 2.8% 5.0% D 29 +700

227

Zach Mckinstry L

4.0% 0.0% 1.9% 2.9% D 26 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.6% usage) carries Rogers's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Mayo Dingler Torkelson Greene

Legend

attack side — vs Skubal fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Dillon Dingler +390 · 52

Coby Mayo +370 · 46

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.87× Wind 12 mph slight_out 78°F open

↑

12 mph · slight_out

75°F

1:10p · peak

↑

12 mph · slight_out

76°F

2:10p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

77°F

3:10p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

78°F

4:10p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

79°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.22× 78°F, wind 12 mph NNE (slight_out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tarik Skubal · LHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Coby Mayo 46 D +370 WARM 82 0.213 92.5 8.7% 43.5%vs LHP 405 16.5% 33.3% 25.5% 12

2 Pete Alonso 45 D +320 WARM 93 0.216 94.1 9.3% 16.1%vs LHP 401 18.9% 9.1% 11.7% 31

3 Gunnar Henderson 39 D +625 COOL 141 0.180 89.4 7.0% 35.0%vs LHP 390 16.3% 9.1% 16.9% 27

4 Colton Cowser 33 D — WARM 183 0.125 87.0 8.5% 20.0%vs LHP 417 13.5% 0.0% 10.6% 12

5 Taylor Ward 28 D +525 · 213 0.104 89.2 6.3% 17.4%vs LHP 388 6.5% 9.1% 7.2% 31

6 Leody Taveras 28 D +850 COOL 214 0.124 87.3 5.8% 8.3%vs LHP 419 4.2% 12.5% 6.3% 21

vs Trevor Rogers · LHP 0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler ✶ 52 C +390 COOL 51 0.255 89.4 8.7% 20.8%vs LHP 396 19.4% 20.0% 23.4% 28

2 Spencer Torkelson 48 D +350 · 71 0.210 90.0 9.7% 12.0%vs LHP 394 16.5% 20.0% 17.9% 26

3 Riley Greene 44 D +425 WARM 101 0.181 91.4 10.3% 10.0%vs LHP 399 12.4% 18.2% 10.4% 31

4 Colt Keith 33 D — COOL 184 0.141 88.6 7.1% 10.3% 389 6.7% 0.0% 6.2% 25

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 31 D +575 COOL 198 0.135 88.1 7.1% 7.4%vs LHP 399 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 32

6 Gleyber Torres 30 D +525 WARM 203 0.101 85.5 7.0% 11.1%vs LHP 388 6.6% 0.0% 6.5% 13

7 Matt Vierling 29 D +700 · 209 0.117 87.7 5.8% 7.7%vs LHP 377 6.9% 0.0% 6.2% 21

8 Zach Mckinstry 26 D — WARM 227 0.104 85.2 4.4% 0.0%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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