TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.93×

BOS @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 9:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.21× Wind 12 mph out 88°F Roof open

Hourly window

+18 ↑

6:40p

+17 ↑

7:40p

+16 ↑

8:40p

+15 ↑

9:40p

+13 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +18

Best of game Tyler Soderstrom conv 33 · vs Sandoval ⟷ Willson Contreras conv 27 · vs Lopez → edge: Willson Contreras

ATTACK Patrick Sandoval LHP · TOR

leak 88

0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.98 · leakiest side of this game

1 Tyler Soderstrom +370 C+ ●●●●●

2 Nick Kurtz +290 C+ ●●●●●

3 Jacob Wilson +850 D ●●●○○

FADE Jacob Lopez LHP · ATH

leak 76

1.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · stingy — thin edge

1 Willson Contreras +220 C+ ●●●●○

2 Ceddanne Rafaela +475 C ●●●●○

3 Wilyer Abreu +330 C+ ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willson Contreras: 14.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 18.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Tyler Soderstrom vs Sandoval +370 0.228 · 90.2 · 7.0% 30.0% 36.3% F B O C+ 60

· — Nick Kurtz vs Sandoval +290 0.232 · 93.5 · 9.6% 33.3% 25.9% F B O C+ 63

· BOS Willson Contreras ✶ vs Lopez Edge +220 0.256 · 90.6 · 8.8% 18.2% 35.4% F B O C+ 69

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela vs Lopez Edge +475 0.165 · 86.5 · 5.2% 33.3% 20.1% F B O C 54

· BOS Wilyer Abreu COOL vs Lopez +330 0.184 · 89.8 · 8.2% 25.0% 23.9% F B O C+ 60

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Lopez Edge +425 0.191 · 88.6 · 6.9% 0.0% 15.1% F B O C 54

· BOS Jarren Duran COOL vs Lopez +525 0.144 · 89.5 · 7.5% 0.0% 9.7% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· — Jacob Wilson vs Sandoval Edge +850 0.124 · 83.8 · 3.5% 30.0% 10.4% F B O D 41

· — Carlos Cortes COOL vs Sandoval — 0.156 · 90.0 · 6.0% 14.3% 15.3% F B O D 46

· BOS Masataka Yoshida vs Lopez — 0.120 · 88.7 · 3.8% 20.0% 8.9% F B O D 46

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Lopez Edge +500 0.157 · 84.0 · 3.7% 8.3% 12.1% F B O D 46

· BOS Carlos Narvaez vs Lopez Edge +500 0.092 · 91.4 · 6.3% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 43

· — Henry Bolte COOL vs Sandoval Edge +575 0.079 · 89.8 · 5.7% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 39

· — Lawrence Butler COOL vs Sandoval — 0.097 · 88.9 · 5.4% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 38

· — Jeff Mcneil vs Sandoval +950 0.086 · 86.2 · 2.5% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 59.3% ← leak BRK 31.6% OFF 9.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Willson Contreras R Edge

11.9% 15.4% 22.6% 14.0% C+ 69 +220

Wilyer Abreu L

12.7% 12.7% 11.9% 12.5% C+ 60 +330

Ceddanne Rafaela R Edge

4.0% 5.7% 7.5% 5.0% C 54 +475

Andruw Monasterio R Edge

7.8% 8.3% 16.7% 8.8% C 54 +425

Jarren Duran L

13.2% 7.4% 7.0% 10.3% C 51 +525

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Caleb Durbin R Edge

2.7% 1.6% 3.6% 2.6% D 46 +500

Masataka Yoshida L

3.5% 0.0% 2.7% 2.8% D 46 —

103

Carlos Narvaez R Edge

7.8% 8.8% 0.0% 7.2% D 43 +500

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.3% usage) carries Lopez's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 40.9% BRK 30.2% OFF 24.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Nick Kurtz L

17.0% 21.4% 17.9% 18.4% C+ 63 +290

Tyler Soderstrom L

9.2% 16.9% 0.0% 9.7% C+ 60 +370

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Carlos Cortes L

7.9% 4.5% 8.9% 7.4% D 46 —

121

Jacob Wilson R Edge

4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% D 41 +850

136

Henry Bolte R Edge

6.2% 7.7% 5.6% 6.5% D 39 +575

147

Lawrence Butler L

5.9% 8.6% 2.1% 5.5% D 38 —

179

Jeff Mcneil L

0.7% 1.9% 1.8% 1.2% D 33 +950

Read the columns: no single family leads Sandoval's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Contreras Abreu Rafaela Yoshida Kurtz Soderstrom Cortes Wilson

Legend

attack side — vs Sandoval fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Tyler Soderstrom +370 · 60

Nick Kurtz +290 · 63

Ceddanne Rafaela +475 · 54

Wilyer Abreu +330 · 60

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.21× Wind 12 mph out 88°F open

+18

↑

11 mph · out

87°F

6:40p · peak

+17

↑

11 mph · out

84°F

7:40p

+16

↑

11 mph · out

80°F

8:40p

+15

↑

10 mph · out

77°F

9:40p

+13

↑

9 mph · out

73°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.93× 88°F, wind 12 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jacob Lopez · LHP 1.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 69 C+ +220 · 2 0.256 90.6 8.8% 25.9%vs LHP 406 20.6% 18.2% 35.4% 19

2 Wilyer Abreu 60 C+ +330 COOL 20 0.184 89.8 8.2% 16.1%vs LHP 405 13.7% 25.0% 23.9% 30

3 Ceddanne Rafaela 54 C +475 WARM 37 0.165 86.5 5.2% 16.0%vs LHP 374 11.9% 33.3% 20.1% 38

4 Andruw Monasterio 54 C +425 COOL 40 0.191 88.6 6.9% 19.1%vs LHP 383 16.7% 0.0% 15.1% 18

5 Jarren Duran 51 C +525 COOL 59 0.144 89.5 7.5% 7.1%vs LHP 398 12.2% 0.0% 9.7% 32

6 Caleb Durbin 46 D +500 COOL 80 0.157 84.0 3.7% 16.7%vs LHP 373 9.2% 8.3% 12.1% 33

7 Masataka Yoshida 46 D — WARM 81 0.120 88.7 3.8% 7.5% 367 10.9% 20.0% 8.9% 29

8 Carlos Narvaez 43 D +500 WARM 103 0.092 91.4 6.3% 0.0%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 7

vs Patrick Sandoval · LHP 0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.98 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Nick Kurtz 63 C+ +290 WARM 10 0.232 93.5 9.6% 25.0%vs LHP 412 21.1% 33.3% 25.9% 3

2 Tyler Soderstrom 60 C+ +370 · 16 0.228 90.2 7.0% 30.4%vs LHP 402 16.5% 30.0% 36.3% 30

3 Carlos Cortes 46 D — COOL 78 0.156 90.0 6.0% 13.5% 403 5.5% 14.3% 15.3% 16

4 Jacob Wilson 41 D +850 WARM 121 0.124 83.8 3.5% 8.7%vs LHP 386 7.8% 30.0% 10.4% 39

5 Henry Bolte 39 D +575 COOL 136 0.079 89.8 5.7% 37.5%vs LHP 422 8.0% 0.0% 9.3% 18

6 Lawrence Butler 38 D — COOL 147 0.097 88.9 5.4% 0.0%vs LHP 402 3.5% 0.0% 8.0% 19

7 Jeff Mcneil 33 D +950 WARM 179 0.086 86.2 2.5% 0.0%vs LHP 377 3.6% 0.0% 8.0% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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