TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.48×

SEA @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.34× Wind 6 mph out 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

+14 ↑

7:10p

+14 ↑

8:10p

+14 ↑

9:10p

+14 ↑

10:10p

+14 ↑

11:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · +14 FIT

Best of game Dominic Canzone conv 35 · vs Lauer ⟷ Max Muncy conv 43 · vs Hancock → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Eric Lauer LHP · LAD

leak 95

2.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.79 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dominic Canzone +350 B ●●●●●

2 Julio Rodríguez +280 C+ ●●●○○

3 Cal Raleigh +225 C ●●●○○

FADE Emerson Hancock RHP · SEA

leak 85

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · stingy — thin edge

1 Max Muncy +280 C+ ●●●●●

2 Dalton Rushing +390 C ●●●●○

3 Kyle Tucker +475 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: 14.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 44.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ vs Hancock Edge +280 0.244 · 90.2 · 11.3% 44.4% 40.7% F B O C+ 69

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Lauer +350 0.248 · 92.2 · 12.5% 20.0% 50.1% F B O B 72

· LAD Dalton Rushing COOL vs Hancock Edge +390 0.217 · 89.4 · 10.4% 11.1% 35.0% F B O C 58

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Lauer Edge +280 0.161 · 90.0 · 9.9% 20.0% 19.7% F B O C+ 60

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Lauer Edge +225 0.135 · 88.2 · 11.1% 20.0% 19.2% F B O C 58

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Lauer Edge +330 0.170 · 91.1 · 9.4% 18.2% 18.6% F B O C 59

· SEA Luke Raley vs Lauer — 0.216 · 90.8 · 13.2% 0.0% 32.9% F B O C+ 67

· SEA Cole Young vs Lauer +575 0.146 · 88.5 · 7.6% 18.2% 13.7% F B O C 53

· LAD Shohei Ohtani vs Hancock Edge +198 0.238 · 93.6 · 12.3% 9.1% 22.7% F B O C+ 66

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Hancock +400 0.181 · 90.5 · 8.7% 9.1% 19.2% F B O C 53

· SEA Colt Emerson COOL vs Lauer +700 0.162 · 86.3 · 7.4% 0.0% 17.7% F B O C 52

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Hancock Edge +330 0.190 · 90.1 · 9.5% 0.0% 17.0% F B O C 54

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Hancock +370 0.191 · 89.0 · 8.6% 0.0% 15.8% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 4 long shots

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Hancock Edge +475 0.137 · 88.9 · 7.8% 20.0% 16.3% F B O D 48

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Lauer — 0.135 · — · 8.3% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 47

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs Hancock +400 0.139 · 89.3 · 9.0% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 44

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Lauer +525 0.097 · 87.6 · 7.1% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 45

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 63.2% ← leak BRK 20.8% OFF 15.9% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Dominic Canzone L

17.1% 16.2% 8.6% 14.6% B 72 +350

Neutral · 6

Luke Raley L

18.8% 13.2% 10.0% 16.0% C+ 67 —

Julio Rodríguez R Edge

9.4% 8.6% 8.3% 9.0% C+ 60 +280

Randy Arozarena R Edge

8.8% 8.4% 6.4% 8.3% C 59 +330

Cal Raleigh S Edge

9.6% 14.0% 12.8% 11.4% C 58 +225

Cole Young L

4.5% 9.7% 2.1% 5.3% C 53 +575

Colt Emerson L

5.0% 5.6% 4.8% 5.1% C 52 +700

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

J.P. Crawford L

5.2% 7.1% 11.5% 6.4% D 47 —

Josh Naylor L

4.2% 7.9% 1.9% 4.7% D 45 +525

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.2% usage) carries Lauer's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 74.1% ← leak BRK 20.8% OFF 5.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 6

Max Muncy L Edge

16.9% 15.5% 6.8% 14.0% C+ 69 +280

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

20.5% 10.5% 14.9% 16.5% C+ 66 +198

Dalton Rushing L Edge

13.4% 17.5% 2.9% 12.1% C 58 +390

Freddie Freeman L Edge

10.1% 9.3% 10.0% 9.9% C 54 +330

Mookie Betts R

10.3% 3.6% 6.7% 8.3% C 53 +400

Andy Pages R

7.6% 8.8% 9.7% 8.2% C 53 +370

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Kyle Tucker L Edge

10.1% 3.4% 1.5% 6.7% D 48 +475

Teoscar Hernandez R

7.8% 13.2% 8.3% 9.0% D 44 +400

Read the columns: the fastball family (74.1% usage) carries Hancock's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Canzone Raley Rodríguez Arozarena Raleigh Young Muncy Ohtani Rushing Betts Tucker

Legend

attack side — vs Lauer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Max Muncy +280 · 69

Dominic Canzone +350 · 72

Julio Rodríguez +280 · 60

Cal Raleigh +225 · 58

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.34× Wind 6 mph out 80°F open

+14

↑

4 mph · out

70°F

7:10p · peak

+14

↑

4 mph · out

70°F

8:10p

+14

↑

4 mph · out

70°F

9:10p

+14

↑

4 mph · out

70°F

10:10p

+14

↑

4 mph · out

70°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.48× 80°F, wind 6 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Eric Lauer · LHP 2.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.79 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 72 B +350 COOL 1 0.248 92.2 12.5% 40.0%vs LHP 403 18.1% 20.0% 50.1% 31

2 Luke Raley 67 C+ — WARM 5 0.216 90.8 13.2% 25.0% 385 12.8% 0.0% 32.9% 14

3 Julio Rodríguez 60 C+ +280 · 17 0.161 90.0 9.9% 26.7%vs LHP 409 16.7% 20.0% 19.7% 33

4 Randy Arozarena 59 C +330 · 20 0.170 91.1 9.4% 16.7%vs LHP 394 12.5% 18.2% 18.6% 33

5 Cal Raleigh 58 C +225 · 23 0.135 88.2 11.1% 12.5%vs LHP 393 13.3% 20.0% 19.2% 22

6 Cole Young 53 C +575 WARM 41 0.146 88.5 7.6% 14.3%vs LHP 388 11.7% 18.2% 13.7% 40

7 Colt Emerson 52 C +700 COOL 44 0.162 86.3 7.4% 28.6%vs LHP 369 10.0% 0.0% 17.7% 27

8 J.P. Crawford 47 D — COOL 75 0.135 — 8.3% 10.0%vs LHP — 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 19

9 Josh Naylor 45 D +525 COOL 93 0.097 87.6 7.1% 5.6%vs LHP 390 6.9% 0.0% 10.6% 37

vs Emerson Hancock · RHP 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 69 C+ +280 WARM 2 0.244 90.2 11.3% 25.3%vs RHP 411 19.4% 44.4% 40.7% 22

2 Shohei Ohtani 66 C+ +198 · 8 0.238 93.6 12.3% 22.0%vs RHP 406 19.6% 9.1% 22.7% 33

3 Dalton Rushing 58 C +390 COOL 22 0.217 89.4 10.4% 38.5%vs RHP 400 8.3% 11.1% 35.0% 14

4 Freddie Freeman 54 C +330 COOL 35 0.190 90.1 9.5% 16.7%vs RHP 398 12.6% 0.0% 17.0% 31

5 Mookie Betts 53 C +400 · 37 0.181 90.5 8.7% 19.3%vs RHP 389 10.8% 9.1% 19.2% 31

6 Andy Pages 53 C +370 COOL 40 0.191 89.0 8.6% 20.7%vs RHP 391 13.5% 0.0% 15.8% 28

7 Kyle Tucker 48 D +475 WARM 71 0.137 88.9 7.8% 10.9%vs RHP 397 7.0% 20.0% 16.3% 28

8 Teoscar Hernandez 44 D +400 COOL 96 0.139 89.3 9.0% 19.1%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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