TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ MIN

Target Field is live · 1.13×

KC @ MIN

Target Field · 7:40p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.87× Wind 6 mph in 90°F Roof open

Hourly window

-6 ↑

6:40p

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7:40p

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8:40p

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9:40p

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10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · -6 FIT

Best of game Salvador Perez conv 25 · vs Ryan ⟷ Kody Clemens conv 14 · vs Dobnak → edge: Kody Clemens

ATTACK Joe Ryan RHP · MIN

leak 92

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · leakiest side of this game

1 Salvador Perez +950 D ●●●●○

2 Lane Thomas — D ●●●○○

3 Jac Caglianone +750 D ●●○○○

FADE Randy Dobnak RHP · KC

leak 65

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kody Clemens +525 C ●●○○○

2 Trevor Larnach +850 D ●●○○○

3 Brooks Lee +850 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kody Clemens: 12.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 10.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIN Kody Clemens ✶ vs Dobnak Edge +525 0.245 · 92.7 · 8.7% 10.0% 18.6% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 17 long shots

· KC Salvador Perez vs Ryan +950 0.156 · 89.1 · 10.5% 36.4% 13.9% F B O D 45

· KC Lane Thomas vs Ryan — 0.170 · 89.5 · 8.4% 27.3% 15.2% F B O D 42

· KC Jac Caglianone vs Ryan Edge +750 0.199 · 93.0 · 12.7% 12.5% 13.5% F B O D 48

· MIN Trevor Larnach COOL vs Dobnak Edge +850 0.162 · 87.1 · 6.9% 16.7% 8.5% F B O D 38

· KC Carter Jensen vs Ryan Edge +950 0.188 · 90.8 · 10.2% 10.0% 11.4% F B O D 44

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs Dobnak Edge +850 0.175 · 87.6 · 4.9% 10.0% 9.9% F B O D 38

· KC Nick Loftin COOL vs Ryan +1000 0.157 · 87.3 · 7.3% 11.1% 7.6% F B O D 35

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Ryan Edge +1000 0.126 · 88.3 · 7.9% 10.0% 7.1% F B O D 33

· MIN Ryan Kreidler vs Dobnak — 0.175 · 87.9 · 7.0% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 37

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Dobnak +700 0.165 · 89.3 · 8.7% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 41

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs Dobnak Edge +750 0.169 · 90.0 · 7.8% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 39

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Ryan Edge +850 0.166 · 89.9 · 8.3% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 36

· KC Josh Rojas vs Ryan Edge +950 0.123 · 84.7 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 30

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Dobnak Edge +1000 0.122 · 89.9 · 6.5% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 33

· MIN Alan Roden vs Dobnak Edge — 0.000 · 90.5 · 6.5% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 33

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Dobnak — 0.084 · 84.7 · 4.2% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 25

· KC Tyler Tolbert COOL vs Ryan — 0.110 · 85.6 · 6.1% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 55.6% ← leak BRK 32.3% OFF 12.0% Overall Score

Long shots · 9 — below the fade line

Jac Caglianone L Edge

15.2% 16.5% 11.8% 14.9% D 48 +750

Salvador Perez R

13.6% 6.5% 9.1% 10.1% D 45 +950

102

Carter Jensen L Edge

11.2% 9.0% 7.0% 9.6% D 44 +950

119

Lane Thomas R

7.6% 2.7% 5.6% 6.5% D 42 —

167

Michael Massey L Edge

7.8% 6.1% 2.4% 6.4% D 36 +850

174

Nick Loftin R

7.2% 2.2% 0.0% 4.9% D 35 +1000

198

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.1% 11.1% 0.0% 5.8% D 33 +1000

212

Tyler Tolbert R

2.9% 6.7% 0.0% 3.4% D 32 —

223

Josh Rojas L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 2.5% D 30 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.6% usage) carries Ryan's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 50.2% ← leak BRK 23.9% OFF 22.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kody Clemens L Edge

8.9% 20.7% 11.9% 12.1% C 51 +525

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

127

Royce Lewis R

13.5% 9.1% 8.7% 11.6% D 41 +700

143

Josh Bell S Edge

9.4% 14.1% 6.1% 9.7% D 39 +750

151

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.4% 0.0% 1.3% 3.8% D 38 +850

154

Trevor Larnach L Edge

8.5% 8.3% 3.0% 7.6% D 38 +850

160

Ryan Kreidler R

11.0% 2.4% 8.3% 7.9% D 37 —

197

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.7% 12.9% 6.5% 6.9% D 33 +1000

199

Alan Roden L Edge

11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% D 33 —

248

Luke Keaschall R

3.6% 2.5% 0.0% 2.9% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.2% usage) carries Dobnak's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caglianone Perez Thomas Clemens

Legend

attack side — vs Ryan fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.87× Wind 6 mph in 90°F open

-6

↑

9 mph · cross

77°F

6:40p · peak

-6

↑

9 mph · cross

77°F

7:40p

-6

↑

9 mph · cross

77°F

8:40p

-6

↑

9 mph · cross

77°F

9:40p

-6

↑

9 mph · cross

77°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.13× 90°F, wind 6 mph ESE (in) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Joe Ryan · RHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 48 D +750 · 73 0.199 93.0 12.7% 26.8%vs RHP 416 12.9% 12.5% 13.5% 24

2 Salvador Perez 45 D +950 WARM 91 0.156 89.1 10.5% 20.3%vs RHP 404 16.3% 36.4% 13.9% 29

3 Carter Jensen 44 D +950 · 102 0.188 90.8 10.2% 17.1%vs RHP 394 14.6% 10.0% 11.4% 27

4 Lane Thomas 42 D — · 119 0.170 89.5 8.4% 20.7%vs RHP 409 15.9% 27.3% 15.2% 27

5 Michael Massey 36 D +850 COOL 167 0.166 89.9 8.3% 9.0%vs RHP 398 5.8% 0.0% 9.0% 28

6 Nick Loftin 35 D +1000 COOL 174 0.157 87.3 7.3% 13.3%vs RHP 397 10.4% 11.1% 7.6% 30

7 Isaac Collins 33 D +1000 COOL 198 0.126 88.3 7.9% 9.3%vs RHP 394 6.7% 10.0% 7.1% 26

8 Tyler Tolbert 32 D — COOL 212 0.110 85.6 6.1% 15.4% 377 15.4% 0.0% 6.5% 13

9 Josh Rojas 30 D +950 WARM 223 0.123 84.7 5.1% 10.0%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 15

vs Randy Dobnak · RHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens ✶ 51 C +525 · 49 0.245 92.7 8.7% 20.0%vs RHP 389 17.5% 10.0% 18.6% 30

2 Royce Lewis 41 D +700 COOL 127 0.165 89.3 8.7% 17.4%vs RHP 396 15.6% 0.0% 9.7% 29

3 Josh Bell 39 D +750 COOL 143 0.169 90.0 7.8% 20.4%vs RHP 404 9.9% 0.0% 9.6% 26

4 Brooks Lee 38 D +850 COOL 151 0.175 87.6 4.9% 20.0%vs RHP 370 14.4% 10.0% 9.9% 32

5 Trevor Larnach 38 D +850 COOL 154 0.162 87.1 6.9% 13.7%vs RHP 400 8.3% 16.7% 8.5% 20

6 Ryan Kreidler 37 D — · 160 0.175 87.9 7.0% 20.0%vs RHP 411 5.4% 0.0% 10.7% 26

7 Victor Caratini 33 D +1000 COOL 197 0.122 89.9 6.5% 17.1%vs RHP 404 7.1% 0.0% 7.1% 23

8 Alan Roden 33 D — · 199 0.000 90.5 6.5% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 18

9 Luke Keaschall 25 D — WARM 248 0.084 84.7 4.2% 7.1%vs RHP 370 4.4% 0.0% 6.7% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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