TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ PIT

PNC Park is live · 1.11×

AZ @ PIT

PNC Park · 12:35p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.80× Wind 10 mph out 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

12:35p

+2 ↑

1:35p

+2 ↑

2:35p

+2 ↑

3:35p

+1 ↑

4:35p

best window is early — 12:35p at +2

Best of game Corbin Carroll conv 19 · vs Jones ⟷ Nick Gonzales conv 20 · vs Rodriguez → edge: Corbin Carroll

ATTACK Jared Jones RHP · PIT

leak 99

1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · leakiest side of this game

1 Corbin Carroll +350 D ●●●○○

2 Ketel Marte +400 D ●●●○○

3 Nolan Arenado +525 D ●●●○○

FADE Eduardo Rodriguez LHP · AZ

leak 35

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nick Gonzales +850 D ●●●○○

2 Ryan O'Hearn +625 D ●○○○○

3 Brandon Lowe +425 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Corbin Carroll: 12.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 18.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· PIT Nick Gonzales HOT vs Rodriguez Edge +850 0.097 · 86.1 · 5.4% 33.3% 6.0% F B O D 31

· AZ Corbin Carroll ✶ HOT vs Jones Edge +350 0.234 · 91.7 · 9.7% 18.2% 20.6% F B O D 49

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Jones Edge +400 0.201 · 90.7 · 8.9% 20.0% 15.1% F B O D 45

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Jones +525 0.178 · 85.2 · 7.4% 22.2% 12.0% F B O D 39

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Jones Edge +700 0.122 · 87.1 · 4.9% 18.2% 9.2% F B O D 29

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn COOL vs Rodriguez +625 0.187 · 89.6 · 8.4% 8.3% 8.9% F B O D 42

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Jones +750 0.141 · 89.6 · 7.7% 9.1% 5.9% F B O D 34

· PIT Brandon Lowe COOL vs Rodriguez +425 0.227 · 90.9 · 10.5% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 47

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Rodriguez Edge +425 0.185 · 90.9 · 10.2% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 43

· AZ Adrian Del Castillo COOL vs Jones Edge +625 0.125 · 88.8 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 32

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Jones Edge — 0.133 · 87.4 · 5.0% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 28

· PIT Marcell Ozuna COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +575 0.125 · 89.3 · 8.6% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 35

· PIT Jake Mangum COOL vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.067 · 84.6 · 3.6% 0.0% 4.8% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.2% ← leak BRK 41.2% OFF 13.6% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Corbin Carroll L Edge

10.9% 14.6% 12.3% 12.4% D 49 +350

Ketel Marte S Edge

14.2% 8.0% 3.9% 10.4% D 45 +400

133

Nolan Arenado R

10.5% 2.4% 3.7% 7.2% D 39 +525

176

Gabriel Moreno R

7.6% 7.1% 9.7% 7.7% D 34 +750

189

Adrian Del Castillo L Edge

11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% D 32 +625

208

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

3.8% 1.9% 2.6% 3.2% D 29 +700

211

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.3% 1.7% 1.6% 3.2% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.2% usage) carries Jones's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 60.1% ← leak OFF 26.8% BRK 13.1% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Brandon Lowe L

17.1% 9.6% 6.6% 12.1% D 47 +425

109

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.2% 7.9% 15.3% 11.5% D 43 +425

116

Ryan O'Hearn L

8.8% 4.3% 7.0% 7.9% D 42 +625

167

Marcell Ozuna R Edge

8.5% 0.0% 10.7% 8.2% D 35 +575

197

Nick Gonzales R Edge

2.1% 0.0% 5.6% 3.0% D 31 +850

237

Jake Mangum S Edge

2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.1% usage) carries Rodriguez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Carroll Marte Arenado Perdomo Gonzales

Legend

attack side — vs Jones fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 12:35p · roof open

Park 0.80× Wind 10 mph out 76°F open

↑

10 mph · out

73°F

12:35p · peak

↑

10 mph · out

75°F

1:35p

↑

10 mph · out

77°F

2:35p

↑

10 mph · out

78°F

3:35p

↑

9 mph · out

79°F

4:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.11× 76°F, wind 10 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jared Jones · RHP 1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll ✶ 49 D +350 HOT 66 0.234 91.7 9.7% 17.5%vs RHP 401 13.8% 18.2% 20.6% 30

2 Ketel Marte 45 D +400 COOL 88 0.201 90.7 8.9% 14.9%vs RHP 412 15.9% 20.0% 15.1% 34

3 Nolan Arenado 39 D +525 · 133 0.178 85.2 7.4% 19.6%vs RHP 391 13.4% 22.2% 12.0% 27

4 Gabriel Moreno 34 D +750 · 176 0.141 89.6 7.7% 13.6%vs RHP 399 8.1% 9.1% 5.9% 38

5 Adrian Del Castillo 32 D +625 COOL 189 0.125 88.8 7.2% 16.7%vs RHP 400 7.5% 0.0% 8.5% 14

6 Geraldo Perdomo 29 D +700 COOL 208 0.122 87.1 4.9% 10.6%vs RHP 382 7.6% 18.2% 9.2% 34

7 Ildemaro Vargas 28 D — COOL 211 0.133 87.4 5.0% 9.4%vs RHP 399 5.2% 0.0% 7.7% 29

vs Eduardo Rodriguez · LHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 47 D +425 COOL 73 0.227 90.9 10.5% 15.4%vs LHP 392 14.9% 0.0% 10.5% 20

2 Bryan Reynolds 43 D +425 WARM 109 0.185 90.9 10.2% 23.1%vs LHP 409 12.6% 0.0% 9.6% 23

3 Ryan O'Hearn 42 D +625 COOL 116 0.187 89.6 8.4% 17.4%vs LHP 385 14.1% 8.3% 8.9% 25

4 Marcell Ozuna 35 D +575 COOL 167 0.125 89.3 8.6% 21.1%vs LHP 404 9.0% 0.0% 6.7% 13

5 Nick Gonzales 31 D +850 HOT 197 0.097 86.1 5.4% 4.2%vs LHP 397 8.0% 33.3% 6.0% 35

6 Jake Mangum 22 D — COOL 237 0.067 84.6 3.6% 0.0%vs LHP 408 3.2% 0.0% 4.8% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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