TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ TB

Suppressed air · 0.93×

TEX @ TB

Tropicana Field · 6:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.93× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Nick Fortes conv 20 · vs Gore ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 35 · vs Legumina → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK MacKenzie Gore LHP · TEX

leak 82

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.16 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nick Fortes +850 D ●●●○○

2 Junior Caminero +235 C ●●●○○

3 Cedric Mullins — D ●○○○○

FADE Casey Legumina RHP · TB

leak 65

0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.46 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson — C ●●●●●

2 Jake Burger +370 C ●●●●○

3 Wyatt Langford +370 C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: Match 28.0% · 14D pace 42.9% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Legumina Edge — 0.257 · 91.9 · 9.6% 42.9% 28.0% F B O C 59

· TEX Jake Burger vs Legumina +370 0.192 · 90.0 · 9.4% 33.3% 19.8% F B O C 51

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Legumina +370 0.234 · 89.3 · 8.5% 30.0% 22.8% F B O C 52

· TB Junior Caminero COOL vs Gore Edge +235 0.257 · 93.0 · 10.7% 18.2% 19.0% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· TB Nick Fortes vs Gore Edge +850 0.109 · 85.9 · 4.6% 28.6% 11.4% F B O D 32

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Legumina +700 0.183 · 88.7 · 7.3% 20.0% 16.2% F B O D 45

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Legumina Edge — 0.150 · 88.0 · 6.9% 14.3% 8.6% F B O D 39

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Legumina Edge +425 0.164 · 92.3 · 9.8% 10.0% 9.0% F B O D 44

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Gore — 0.147 · 88.0 · 5.9% 12.5% 6.1% F B O D 37

· TB Yandy Diaz COOL vs Gore Edge +425 0.158 · 90.7 · 7.7% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 36

· TB Ben Williamson COOL vs Gore Edge — 0.078 · 87.3 · 3.7% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 26

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Gore — 0.109 · 85.8 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 31

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Gore +525 0.155 · 91.1 · 9.4% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 41

· TEX Alejandro Osuna COOL vs Legumina Edge +950 0.044 · 86.9 · 2.4% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 24

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Gore Edge — 0.073 · 85.3 · 4.8% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 25

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Gore — 0.063 · 83.7 · — 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 16

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 62.3% BRK 26.5% OFF 11.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Joc Pederson L Edge

14.2% 11.9% 4.3% 11.4% C 59 —

Wyatt Langford R

5.7% 12.8% 17.6% 8.9% C 52 +370

Jake Burger R

9.9% 12.8% 10.3% 10.9% C 51 +370

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Ezequiel Duran R

8.2% 7.0% 0.0% 6.7% D 45 +700

100

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

9.8% 17.5% 10.0% 11.9% D 44 +425

138

Evan Carter L Edge

8.0% 5.1% 0.0% 6.0% D 39 —

231

Alejandro Osuna L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0.7% D 24 +950

Read the columns: no single family leads Legumina's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 59.0% ← leak BRK 30.3% OFF 10.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R Edge

16.6% 10.7% 6.7% 13.1% C 58 +235

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

124

Jonathan Aranda L

10.9% 13.3% 5.6% 10.4% D 41 +525

155

Cedric Mullins L

3.2% 3.8% 9.1% 4.2% D 37 —

158

Yandy Diaz R Edge

5.0% 10.9% 5.0% 7.0% D 36 +425

187

Nick Fortes R Edge

3.1% 2.0% 0.0% 2.5% D 32 +850

195

Richie Palacios L

5.0% 2.1% 3.7% 4.0% D 31 —

223

Ben Williamson R Edge

2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% D 26 —

228

Taylor Walls S Edge

3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% D 25 —

241

Chandler Simpson L

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 16 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.0% usage) carries Gore's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Langford Burger Duran Caminero Fortes

Legend

attack side — vs Gore fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Joc Pederson — · 59

Jake Burger +370 · 51

Wyatt Langford +370 · 52

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof unknown

Park 0.93× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Suppress · Combined 0.93× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Casey Legumina · RHP 0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.46 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 59 C — · 23 0.257 91.9 9.6% 31.1%vs RHP 394 21.9% 42.9% 28.0% 23

2 Wyatt Langford 52 C +370 · 47 0.234 89.3 8.5% 21.6%vs RHP 401 18.2% 30.0% 22.8% 32

3 Jake Burger 51 C +370 WARM 57 0.192 90.0 9.4% 26.8%vs RHP 398 16.8% 33.3% 19.8% 24

4 Ezequiel Duran 45 D +700 WARM 87 0.183 88.7 7.3% 23.3%vs RHP 392 14.3% 20.0% 16.2% 27

5 Brandon Nimmo 44 D +425 COOL 100 0.164 92.3 9.8% 12.7%vs RHP 404 9.5% 10.0% 9.0% 27

6 Evan Carter 39 D — COOL 138 0.150 88.0 6.9% 15.1%vs RHP 374 9.7% 14.3% 8.6% 20

7 Alejandro Osuna 24 D +950 COOL 231 0.044 86.9 2.4% 5.3%vs RHP 364 2.6% 0.0% 6.3% 12

vs MacKenzie Gore · LHP 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.16 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 58 C +235 COOL 28 0.257 93.0 10.7% 41.2%vs LHP 408 26.5% 18.2% 19.0% 39

2 Jonathan Aranda 41 D +525 · 124 0.155 91.1 9.4% 5.0%vs LHP 387 12.2% 0.0% 7.2% 23

3 Cedric Mullins 37 D — COOL 155 0.147 88.0 5.9% 0.0%vs LHP 393 13.4% 12.5% 6.1% 22

4 Yandy Diaz 36 D +425 COOL 158 0.158 90.7 7.7% 19.2%vs LHP 386 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 38

5 Nick Fortes 32 D +850 WARM 187 0.109 85.9 4.6% 5.9%vs LHP 396 5.4% 28.6% 11.4% 21

6 Richie Palacios 31 D — COOL 195 0.109 85.8 5.9% 7.4% 394 3.7% 0.0% 7.5% 17

7 Ben Williamson 26 D — COOL 223 0.078 87.3 3.7% 14.3%vs LHP 398 2.8% 0.0% 7.7% 26

8 Taylor Walls 25 D — COOL 228 0.073 85.3 4.8% 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 16

9 Chandler Simpson 16 D — COOL 241 0.063 83.7 — 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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