TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.23×

TOR @ WSH

Nationals Park · 1:05p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 15 mph cross 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

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1:05p

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2:05p

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4:05p

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5:05p

conditions hold steady across the window · -3 FIT

Best of game George Springer conv 23 · vs Littell ⟷ James Wood conv 18 · vs Yesavage → edge: James Wood

ATTACK Zack Littell RHP · WSH

leak 75

2.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 George Springer — C ●●●○○

2 Kazuma Okamoto — C+ ●●●○○

3 Yohendrick Piñango — D ●○○○○

FADE Trey Yesavage RHP · TOR

leak 47

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 James Wood — C+ ●●●○○

2 Cj Abrams — C ●●○○○

3 Jacob Young — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: 22.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 9.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TOR George Springer vs Littell — 0.162 · 88.6 · 9.2% 27.3% 17.9% F B O C 54

· WSH James Wood ✶ vs Yesavage Edge — 0.282 · 95.2 · 12.0% 9.1% 26.3% F B O C+ 67

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Littell — 0.217 · 90.9 · 12.2% 9.1% 24.6% F B O C+ 63

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Yesavage Edge — 0.273 · 89.8 · 8.6% 0.0% 30.4% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Yesavage — 0.149 · 88.7 · 6.6% 11.1% 10.8% F B O D 42

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Yesavage Edge — 0.160 · 88.1 · 7.2% 11.1% 9.2% F B O D 43

· WSH Brady House vs Yesavage — 0.179 · 89.1 · 8.4% 0.0% 17.8% F B O D 47

· TOR Yohendrick Piñango HOT vs Littell Edge — 0.142 · 90.8 · 9.4% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 49

· TOR Davis Schneider COOL vs Littell — 0.135 · 88.3 · 10.8% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 47

· TOR Nathan Lukes COOL vs Littell Edge — 0.113 · 86.4 · 3.3% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 37

· WSH Jorbit Vivas COOL vs Yesavage Edge — 0.099 · 83.3 · 4.9% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 34

· TOR Daulton Varsho vs Littell Edge — 0.133 · 86.2 · 8.5% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 44

· TOR Andres Gimenez vs Littell Edge — 0.125 · 86.0 · 6.5% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 39

· TOR Alejandro Kirk vs Littell — 0.112 · 87.7 · 5.7% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 41

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Littell — 0.129 · 85.1 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 40

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Yesavage Edge — 0.043 · 84.5 · 1.6% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 41.8% ← leak BRK 37.9% OFF 20.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kazuma Okamoto R

15.5% 8.7% 17.6% 13.8% C+ 63 —

George Springer R

8.0% 6.7% 8.7% 7.6% C 54 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Yohendrick Piñango L Edge

9.4% 8.3% 6.1% 8.3% D 49 —

Davis Schneider R

13.2% 0.0% 20.0% 11.1% D 47 —

106

Daulton Varsho L Edge

9.2% 2.8% 5.6% 6.8% D 44 —

132

Alejandro Kirk R

1.9% 6.2% 0.0% 3.0% D 41 —

140

Ernie Clement R

2.4% 2.6% 2.3% 2.5% D 40 —

147

Andres Gimenez L Edge

4.2% 2.6% 5.9% 3.9% D 39 —

162

Nathan Lukes L Edge

0.0% 2.1% 2.9% 1.0% D 37 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (41.8% usage) carries Littell's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.9% ← leak OFF 29.1% BRK 24.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

James Wood L Edge

21.7% 11.8% 27.3% 22.0% C+ 67 —

Cj Abrams L Edge

12.5% 14.0% 8.9% 11.5% C 54 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Brady House R

11.8% 0.0% 12.5% 10.8% D 47 —

115

Daylen Lile L Edge

8.3% 4.0% 10.4% 8.0% D 43 —

123

Jacob Young R

8.6% 3.4% 4.3% 6.7% D 42 —

187

Jorbit Vivas L Edge

3.1% 3.7% 4.8% 3.6% D 34 —

257

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.9% usage) carries Yesavage's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Springer Wood Abrams

Legend

attack side — vs Littell fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 1:05p · roof open

Park 1.02× Wind 15 mph cross 84°F open

-3

↑

11 mph · cross

78°F

1:05p · peak

-3

↑

11 mph · cross

78°F

2:05p

-3

↑

11 mph · cross

78°F

3:05p

-3

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11 mph · cross

78°F

4:05p

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11 mph · cross

78°F

5:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.23× 84°F, wind 15 mph NNW (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Zack Littell · RHP 2.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.04 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 63 C+ — COOL 12 0.217 90.9 12.2% 30.0%vs RHP 397 19.5% 9.1% 24.6% 27

2 George Springer 54 C — · 36 0.162 88.6 9.2% 23.8%vs RHP 393 12.2% 27.3% 17.9% 39

3 Yohendrick Piñango 49 D — HOT 67 0.142 90.8 9.4% 17.4%vs RHP 403 12.5% 0.0% 10.5% 8

4 Davis Schneider 47 D — COOL 78 0.135 88.3 10.8% 12.5%vs RHP 399 4.7% 0.0% 10.4% 3

5 Daulton Varsho 44 D — WARM 106 0.133 86.2 8.5% 11.1%vs RHP 386 6.5% 0.0% 9.0% 34

6 Alejandro Kirk 41 D — WARM 132 0.112 87.7 5.7% 15.8%vs RHP 403 6.1% 0.0% 8.5% 23

7 Ernie Clement 40 D — COOL 140 0.129 85.1 5.1% 6.9%vs RHP 375 7.9% 0.0% 7.4% 42

8 Andres Gimenez 39 D — WARM 147 0.125 86.0 6.5% 10.6%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 22

9 Nathan Lukes 37 D — COOL 162 0.113 86.4 3.3% 12.8%vs RHP 378 6.0% 0.0% 9.2% 31

vs Trey Yesavage · RHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 67 C+ — · 6 0.282 95.2 12.0% 37.5%vs RHP 413 28.1% 9.1% 26.3% 29

2 Cj Abrams 54 C — WARM 31 0.273 89.8 8.6% 32.4%vs RHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 30.4% 35

3 Brady House 47 D — WARM 76 0.179 89.1 8.4% 25.0%vs RHP 391 13.3% 0.0% 17.8% 7

4 Daylen Lile 43 D — WARM 115 0.160 88.1 7.2% 11.2%vs RHP 403 8.4% 11.1% 9.2% 27

5 Jacob Young 42 D — COOL 123 0.149 88.7 6.6% 17.5%vs RHP 396 8.3% 11.1% 10.8% 24

6 Jorbit Vivas 34 D — COOL 187 0.099 83.3 4.9% 8.8%vs RHP 392 3.4% 0.0% 9.1% 7

7 Nasim Nunez 23 D — COOL 257 0.043 84.5 1.6% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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