TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ MIA

Suppressed air · 0.85×

BOS @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 6:40p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.85× Wind 10 mph in 86°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-15 ↑

6:40p

-15 ↑

7:40p

-14 ↑

8:40p

-12 ↑

9:40p

-11 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks -11

Best of game Javier Sanoja conv 15 · vs Suarez ⟷ Willson Contreras conv 25 · vs Alcantara → edge: Willson Contreras

ATTACK Ranger Suarez LHP · BOS

leak 87

0.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.51 · leakiest side of this game

1 Javier Sanoja — D ●●○○○

2 Owen Caissie — D ●●○○○

3 Jakob Marsee — D ●●○○○

FADE Sandy Alcantara RHP · MIA

leak 55

0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.26 · stingy — thin edge

1 Willson Contreras +500 C ●●●●○

2 Wilyer Abreu +500 D ●●○○○

3 Jarren Duran +700 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willson Contreras: 13.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Willson Contreras ✶ COOL vs Alcantara +500 0.253 · 89.9 · 8.8% 25.0% 25.5% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Suarez Edge — 0.144 · 86.5 · 3.4% 22.2% 8.7% F B O D 28

· MIA Owen Caissie vs Suarez — 0.201 · 91.2 · 8.6% 11.1% 17.6% F B O D 41

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Suarez — 0.114 · 87.2 · 4.2% 20.0% 8.7% F B O D 26

· BOS Wilyer Abreu COOL vs Alcantara Edge +500 0.210 · 89.9 · 8.4% 15.4% 11.1% F B O D 45

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Suarez Edge +525 0.225 · 91.6 · 8.0% 0.0% 24.6% F B O D 39

· BOS Jarren Duran COOL vs Alcantara Edge +700 0.154 · 89.6 · 7.2% 9.1% 9.3% F B O D 37

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Alcantara +850 0.175 · 86.4 · 5.6% 8.3% 9.1% F B O D 36

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Alcantara — 0.145 · 83.6 · 3.9% 7.7% 7.8% F B O D 29

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Suarez Edge — 0.098 · 87.1 · 4.2% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 22

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Alcantara +950 0.159 · 88.2 · 6.4% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 34

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Suarez Edge +950 0.138 · 89.1 · 5.6% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 60.7% ← leak OFF 20.2% BRK 19.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Willson Contreras R

11.3% 23.7% 15.3% 13.9% C 53 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

11.4% 11.9% 15.4% 12.5% D 45 +500

Jarren Duran L Edge

12.0% 7.0% 6.7% 9.5% D 37 +700

Ceddanne Rafaela R

3.4% 11.8% 7.0% 5.7% D 36 +850

100

Andruw Monasterio R

7.4% 13.3% 6.7% 7.6% D 34 +950

116

Caleb Durbin R

3.1% 2.6% 2.2% 2.8% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.7% usage) carries Alcantara's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 66.1% ← leak BRK 20.1% OFF 13.8% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Owen Caissie L

16.2% 9.3% 17.6% 14.6% D 41 —

Heriberto Hernández R Edge

12.2% 12.9% 14.3% 12.6% D 39 +525

119

Javier Sanoja R Edge

2.4% 3.1% 0.0% 2.3% D 28 —

122

Otto Lopez R Edge

8.8% 3.8% 2.9% 6.1% D 28 +950

129

Jakob Marsee L

3.1% 1.8% 7.7% 3.5% D 26 —

131

Xavier Edwards S Edge

4.1% 2.3% 2.6% 3.4% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (66.1% usage) carries Suarez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Contreras Abreu Caissie Sanoja Marsee

Legend

attack side — vs Suarez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Willson Contreras +500 · 53

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.85× Wind 10 mph in 86°F retractable

-15

↑

12 mph · in

84°F

6:40p

-15

↑

12 mph · in

83°F

7:40p

-14

↑

11 mph · in

82°F

8:40p

-12

↑

9 mph · in

80°F

9:40p

-11

↑

7 mph · in

79°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.85× 86°F, wind 10 mph SE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sandy Alcantara · RHP 0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.26 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 53 C +500 COOL 24 0.253 89.9 8.8% 32.2%vs RHP 405 20.2% 25.0% 25.5% 32

2 Wilyer Abreu 45 D +500 COOL 53 0.210 89.9 8.4% 17.1%vs RHP 407 15.9% 15.4% 11.1% 40

3 Jarren Duran 37 D +700 COOL 90 0.154 89.6 7.2% 29.6%vs RHP 398 13.2% 9.1% 9.3% 30

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 36 D +850 COOL 93 0.175 86.4 5.6% 16.4%vs RHP 382 12.8% 8.3% 9.1% 42

5 Andruw Monasterio 34 D +950 COOL 100 0.159 88.2 6.4% 2.2%vs RHP 390 11.1% 0.0% 6.5% 41

6 Caleb Durbin 29 D — COOL 116 0.145 83.6 3.9% 20.0%vs RHP 376 9.0% 7.7% 7.8% 43

vs Ranger Suarez · LHP 0.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.51 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Owen Caissie 41 D — · 64 0.201 91.2 8.6% 22.0% 398 14.1% 11.1% 17.6% 14

2 Heriberto Hernández 39 D +525 WARM 81 0.225 91.6 8.0% 45.0%vs LHP 407 0.0% 0.0% 24.6% 23

3 Javier Sanoja 28 D — WARM 119 0.144 86.5 3.4% 16.7%vs LHP 378 7.0% 22.2% 8.7% 33

4 Otto Lopez 28 D +950 COOL 122 0.138 89.1 5.6% 7.4%vs LHP 402 6.3% 0.0% 5.9% 43

5 Jakob Marsee 26 D — · 129 0.114 87.2 4.2% 11.1%vs LHP 381 7.8% 20.0% 8.7% 32

6 Xavier Edwards 22 D — COOL 131 0.098 87.1 4.2% 21.1%vs LHP 396 4.0% 0.0% 6.8% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

9 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.