TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ LAA

Angel Stadium is live · 1.19×

CLE @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 9:38p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.85× Wind 9 mph out 88°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

6:38p

+5 ↑

7:38p

+4 ↑

8:38p

+3 ↑

9:38p

+2 ↑

10:38p

best window is early — 6:38p at +7

Best of game Zach Neto conv 13 · vs Messick ⟷ Brayan Rocchio conv 8 · vs Klassen → edge: Zach Neto

ATTACK Parker Messick LHP · CLE

leak 82

0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · leakiest side of this game

1 Zach Neto +330 D ●●○○○

2 Josh Lowe — D ●●○○○

3 Mike Trout +390 D ●○○○○

FADE George Klassen RHP · LAA

leak 34

0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brayan Rocchio +850 D ●○○○○

2 Angel Martinez — D ●○○○○

3 Chase Delauter +400 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Zach Neto: 11.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 15.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· LAA Zach Neto ✶ vs Messick Edge +330 0.195 · 89.4 · 7.8% 15.4% 11.1% F B O D 41

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Messick — 0.150 · 89.0 · 6.7% 15.4% 9.6% F B O D 34

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Messick Edge +390 0.193 · 89.8 · 9.2% 7.7% 11.0% F B O D 41

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Klassen Edge +850 0.119 · 86.7 · 5.3% 10.0% 6.2% F B O D 31

· CLE Angel Martinez COOL vs Klassen Edge — 0.184 · 87.3 · 8.3% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 37

· CLE Chase Delauter COOL vs Klassen Edge +400 0.154 · 91.2 · 7.5% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 36

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Messick Edge — 0.123 · 87.4 · 6.0% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 28

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Klassen Edge +750 0.119 · 90.6 · 7.9% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 34

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Klassen Edge +700 0.132 · 88.1 · 6.5% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 33

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Klassen Edge +400 0.140 · 89.3 · 6.6% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 31

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Messick Edge +950 0.125 · 87.8 · 5.7% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 28

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Klassen Edge +850 0.060 · 83.8 · 1.6% 0.0% 5.3% F B O D 18

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 48.5% ← leak BRK 30.8% OFF 20.7% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Angel Martinez S Edge

8.0% 14.3% 2.8% 7.7% D 37 —

Chase Delauter L Edge

8.1% 6.6% 1.5% 6.4% D 36 +400

Patrick Bailey S Edge

8.5% 4.3% 4.5% 6.5% D 34 +750

104

Travis Bazzana L Edge

5.2% 3.4% 2.8% 4.5% D 33 +700

108

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 31 +400

112

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.8% 4.5% 1.1% 3.3% D 31 +850

133

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 18 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.5% usage) carries Klassen's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 61.2% ← leak OFF 23.6% BRK 15.2% Overall Score

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Mike Trout R Edge

15.2% 11.1% 22.0% 16.1% D 41 +390

Zach Neto R Edge

14.3% 9.1% 7.4% 11.6% D 41 +330

Josh Lowe L

11.2% 5.6% 4.9% 8.4% D 34 —

120

Oswald Peraza R Edge

6.0% 10.3% 6.8% 6.9% D 28 —

123

Vaughn Grissom R Edge

8.2% 0.0% 5.7% 6.1% D 28 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.2% usage) carries Messick's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Neto

Legend

attack side — vs Messick fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 6:38p · roof open

Park 0.85× Wind 9 mph out 88°F open

↑

10 mph · out

87°F

6:38p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

83°F

7:38p

↑

8 mph · out

80°F

8:38p

↑

7 mph · out

78°F

9:38p

↑

6 mph · out

76°F

10:38p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.19× 88°F, wind 9 mph SW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs George Klassen · RHP 0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 37 D — COOL 87 0.184 87.3 8.3% 25.6%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 27

2 Chase Delauter 36 D +400 COOL 92 0.154 91.2 7.5% 24.1%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 30

3 Patrick Bailey 34 D +750 · 99 0.119 90.6 7.9% 14.6%vs RHP 409 6.7% 0.0% 6.8% 19

4 Travis Bazzana 33 D +700 COOL 104 0.132 88.1 6.5% 17.0%vs RHP 396 9.4% 0.0% 6.7% 35

5 Jose Ramirez 31 D +400 COOL 108 0.140 89.3 6.6% 10.4%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 31

6 Brayan Rocchio 31 D +850 WARM 112 0.119 86.7 5.3% 12.1%vs RHP 384 7.4% 10.0% 6.2% 28

7 Steven Kwan 18 D +850 COOL 133 0.060 83.8 1.6% 3.0%vs RHP 372 1.7% 0.0% 5.3% 41

vs Parker Messick · LHP 0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 41 D +390 COOL 65 0.193 89.8 9.2% 18.5%vs LHP 409 14.7% 7.7% 11.0% 35

2 Zach Neto ✶ 41 D +330 · 72 0.195 89.4 7.8% 17.1%vs LHP 404 16.1% 15.4% 11.1% 40

3 Josh Lowe 34 D — COOL 98 0.150 89.0 6.7% 0.0%vs LHP 392 10.2% 15.4% 9.6% 24

4 Oswald Peraza 28 D — COOL 120 0.123 87.4 6.0% 22.7%vs LHP 386 5.4% 0.0% 7.9% 12

5 Vaughn Grissom 28 D +950 COOL 123 0.125 87.8 5.7% 0.0%vs LHP 390 7.8% 0.0% 5.5% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

9 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.