TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ DET

Comerica Park is live · 1.18×

TB @ DET

Comerica Park · 6:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 7 mph out 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

6:40p

+4 ↑

7:40p

+3 ↑

8:40p

+2 ↑

9:40p

+1 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +6

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 17 · vs Valdez ⟷ Colt Keith conv 12 · vs Rasmussen → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Framber Valdez LHP · DET

leak 66

0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero +305 C ●●●○○

2 Yandy Diaz +525 D ●○○○○

3 Taylor Walls — D ●○○○○

FADE Drew Rasmussen RHP · TB

leak 50

0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · stingy — thin edge

1 Colt Keith +625 D ●●○○○

2 Dillon Dingler +525 D ●○○○○

3 Gleyber Torres +750 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 15.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ COOL vs Valdez Edge +305 0.255 · 92.9 · 9.2% 15.4% 18.0% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· DET Colt Keith vs Rasmussen Edge +625 0.151 · 89.1 · 6.8% 14.3% 9.3% F B O D 38

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Valdez Edge +525 0.163 · 90.8 · 6.7% 0.0% 17.0% F B O D 39

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Valdez Edge — 0.076 · 85.6 · 3.6% 9.1% 7.8% F B O D 28

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Rasmussen +525 0.231 · 88.8 · 8.1% 0.0% 16.0% F B O D 49

· DET Gleyber Torres COOL vs Rasmussen +750 0.125 · 86.2 · 6.4% 8.3% 7.6% F B O D 35

· DET Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Rasmussen +525 0.185 · 89.3 · 8.9% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 44

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle HOT vs Rasmussen Edge +625 0.138 · 88.1 · 6.5% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 36

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Rasmussen Edge +950 0.106 · 85.6 · 3.8% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 27

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Valdez Edge — 0.101 · 85.3 · 3.7% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 30

· TB Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Valdez +750 0.137 · 91.0 · 7.9% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 40

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Valdez — 0.113 · 86.4 · 4.9% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 32

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Valdez — 0.148 · 87.7 · 5.1% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 37

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Valdez — 0.055 · 83.9 · — 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 18

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.6% ← leak BRK 33.6% OFF 18.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R Edge

15.5% 11.9% 7.5% 13.2% C 59 +305

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jonathan Aranda L

10.5% 13.2% 4.7% 10.0% D 40 +750

Yandy Diaz R Edge

5.6% 10.6% 4.0% 7.0% D 39 +525

Cedric Mullins L

3.7% 3.0% 8.1% 4.1% D 37 —

107

Richie Palacios L

4.7% 1.7% 3.1% 3.7% D 32 —

115

Nick Fortes R Edge

2.8% 1.8% 0.0% 2.2% D 30 —

124

Taylor Walls S Edge

2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% D 28 —

134

Chandler Simpson L

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 18 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.6% usage) carries Valdez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 81.2% ← leak OFF 12.1% BRK 6.7% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Dillon Dingler R

11.9% 6.5% 8.3% 10.3% D 49 +525

Spencer Torkelson R

13.4% 12.5% 10.8% 12.7% D 44 +525

Colt Keith L Edge

6.9% 3.1% 14.9% 7.4% D 38 +625

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

8.1% 1.5% 6.4% 6.7% D 36 +625

Gleyber Torres R

8.1% 0.0% 5.0% 6.5% D 35 +750

127

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

3.2% 0.0% 1.6% 2.3% D 27 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (81.2% usage) carries Rasmussen's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero

Legend

attack side — vs Valdez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.98× Wind 7 mph out 72°F open

↑

7 mph · out

70°F

6:40p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

70°F

7:40p

↑

4 mph · out

69°F

8:40p

↑

3 mph · out

68°F

9:40p

↑

3 mph · out

66°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.18× 72°F, wind 7 mph NW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Framber Valdez · LHP 0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 59 C +305 COOL 13 0.255 92.9 9.2% 33.3%vs LHP 413 25.2% 15.4% 18.0% 44

2 Jonathan Aranda 40 D +750 COOL 78 0.137 91.0 7.9% 4.3%vs LHP 386 10.7% 0.0% 6.7% 36

3 Yandy Diaz 39 D +525 · 80 0.163 90.8 6.7% 20.6%vs LHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 17.0% 50

4 Cedric Mullins 37 D — WARM 91 0.148 87.7 5.1% 0.0%vs LHP 389 11.7% 0.0% 6.6% 31

5 Richie Palacios 32 D — COOL 107 0.113 86.4 4.9% 7.1% 398 4.1% 0.0% 6.7% 33

6 Nick Fortes 30 D — COOL 115 0.101 85.3 3.7% 5.6%vs LHP 396 4.4% 0.0% 6.8% 9

7 Taylor Walls 28 D — COOL 124 0.076 85.6 3.6% 3.9%vs LHP 383 1.0% 9.1% 7.8% 34

8 Chandler Simpson 18 D — COOL 134 0.055 83.9 — 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 48

vs Drew Rasmussen · RHP 0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 49 D +525 COOL 37 0.231 88.8 8.1% 30.0%vs RHP 398 19.3% 0.0% 16.0% 31

2 Spencer Torkelson 44 D +525 COOL 59 0.185 89.3 8.9% 23.3%vs RHP 394 14.4% 0.0% 11.9% 19

3 Colt Keith 38 D +625 WARM 86 0.151 89.1 6.8% 13.4%vs RHP 385 6.7% 14.3% 9.3% 23

4 Kevin Mcgonigle 36 D +625 HOT 94 0.138 88.1 6.5% 9.3%vs RHP 397 20.0% 0.0% 8.2% 39

5 Gleyber Torres 35 D +750 COOL 96 0.125 86.2 6.4% 14.6%vs RHP 393 9.5% 8.3% 7.6% 43

6 Zach Mckinstry 27 D +950 COOL 127 0.106 85.6 3.8% 6.2%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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