TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 2.01×

MIN @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 9:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.25× Wind 12 mph out 87°F Roof open

Hourly window

+21 ↑

6:40p

+19 ↑

7:40p

+18 ↑

8:40p

+15 ↑

9:40p

+14 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +21

Best of game Brooks Lee conv 25 · vs Springs ⟷ Lawrence Butler conv 26 · vs Matthews → edge: Byron Buxton

ATTACK Jeffrey Springs LHP · ATH

leak 93

2.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.32 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brooks Lee +500 C ●●●●○

2 Josh Bell +400 C ●●●○○

3 Kody Clemens +400 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Zebby Matthews RHP · MIN

leak 91

1.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.06 · stingy — thin edge

1 Lawrence Butler +500 C ●●●●○

2 Jeff Mcneil +575 D ●●●○○

3 Henry Bolte +525 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Byron Buxton: 16.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Matthews Edge +500 0.135 · 89.3 · 9.1% 30.8% 20.6% F B O C 55

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Springs Edge +500 0.180 · 87.9 · 5.9% 25.0% 24.8% F B O C 58

· MIN Josh Bell vs Springs Edge +400 0.171 · 90.0 · 9.6% 16.7% 15.9% F B O C 59

· MIN Kody Clemens vs Springs +400 0.230 · 92.4 · 10.6% 10.0% 21.8% F B O C+ 67

· MIN Byron Buxton ✶ COOL vs Springs Edge +198 0.262 · 90.3 · 12.3% 0.0% 23.9% F B O B 71

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Springs Edge +305 0.175 · 89.8 · 10.4% 0.0% 16.4% F B O C 59

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Springs — 0.150 · 87.6 · 8.3% 0.0% 14.2% F B O C 52

· ATH Jonah Heim COOL vs Matthews Edge +525 0.176 · 87.6 · 8.6% 0.0% 12.8% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· ATH Jeff Mcneil HOT vs Matthews Edge +575 0.094 · 86.8 · 4.6% 25.0% 10.5% F B O D 41

· MIN Luke Keaschall HOT vs Springs Edge +575 0.110 · 85.1 · 5.7% 16.7% 10.9% F B O D 46

· ATH Henry Bolte COOL vs Matthews +525 0.097 · 90.9 · 8.7% 7.7% 10.1% F B O D 48

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Matthews Edge +500 0.144 · 89.3 · 8.3% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 49

· MIN Victor Caratini vs Springs Edge — 0.105 · 89.5 · 7.9% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 45

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.9% ← leak BRK 30.3% OFF 23.9% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Byron Buxton R Edge

18.3% 13.8% 12.5% 16.2% B 71 +198

Neutral · 5

Kody Clemens L

9.7% 18.6% 11.1% 11.9% C+ 67 +400

Royce Lewis R Edge

14.0% 7.0% 9.4% 11.5% C 59 +305

Josh Bell S Edge

10.4% 12.2% 6.2% 9.8% C 59 +400

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.7% C 58 +500

Trevor Larnach L

7.6% 8.8% 4.7% 7.4% C 52 —

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Luke Keaschall R Edge

4.3% 3.1% 0.0% 3.5% D 46 +575

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.8% 11.4% 5.7% 6.6% D 45 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.9% usage) carries Springs's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.8% ← leak BRK 34.4% OFF 12.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Lawrence Butler L Edge

8.0% 9.1% 3.5% 7.2% C 55 +500

Jonah Heim S Edge

6.8% 3.9% 9.6% 6.8% C 52 +525

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Carlos Cortes L Edge

7.1% 3.6% 7.5% 6.3% D 49 +500

Henry Bolte R

7.3% 7.8% 3.8% 7.0% D 48 +525

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

1.6% 3.0% 1.5% 1.9% D 41 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.8% usage) carries Matthews's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Buxton Clemens Bell Lee Keaschall Butler Mcneil

Legend

attack side — vs Springs fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Lawrence Butler +500 · 55

Brooks Lee +500 · 58

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.25× Wind 12 mph out 87°F open

+21

↑

12 mph · out

87°F

6:40p · peak

+19

↑

11 mph · out

83°F

7:40p

+18

↑

10 mph · out

79°F

8:40p

+15

↑

8 mph · out

76°F

9:40p

+14

↑

7 mph · out

73°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 2.01× 87°F, wind 12 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jeffrey Springs · LHP 2.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.32 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Byron Buxton ✶ 71 B +198 COOL 2 0.262 90.3 12.3% 25.0%vs LHP 402 25.8% 0.0% 23.9% 22

2 Kody Clemens 67 C+ +400 · 5 0.230 92.4 10.6% 25.0%vs LHP 391 16.7% 10.0% 21.8% 27

3 Royce Lewis 59 C +305 COOL 11 0.175 89.8 10.4% 21.1%vs LHP 400 14.9% 0.0% 16.4% 34

4 Josh Bell 59 C +400 · 12 0.171 90.0 9.6% 13.9%vs LHP 407 11.7% 16.7% 15.9% 37

5 Brooks Lee 58 C +500 WARM 14 0.180 87.9 5.9% 12.9%vs LHP 370 16.0% 25.0% 24.8% 37

6 Trevor Larnach 52 C — WARM 26 0.150 87.6 8.3% 25.0%vs LHP 397 9.0% 0.0% 14.2% 25

7 Luke Keaschall 46 D +575 HOT 47 0.110 85.1 5.7% 3.6%vs LHP 374 7.1% 16.7% 10.9% 35

8 Victor Caratini 45 D — · 50 0.105 89.5 7.9% 12.5%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 14

vs Zebby Matthews · RHP 1.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.06 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Lawrence Butler 55 C +500 WARM 21 0.135 89.3 9.1% 20.0%vs RHP 409 8.1% 30.8% 20.6% 34

2 Jonah Heim 52 C +525 COOL 27 0.176 87.6 8.6% 5.6%vs RHP 414 8.5% 0.0% 12.8% 27

3 Carlos Cortes 49 D +500 COOL 36 0.144 89.3 8.3% 14.3%vs RHP 403 4.4% 0.0% 12.1% 28

4 Henry Bolte 48 D +525 COOL 40 0.097 90.9 8.7% 4.5%vs RHP 410 10.0% 7.7% 10.1% 38

5 Jeff Mcneil 41 D +575 HOT 66 0.094 86.8 4.6% 11.3%vs RHP 381 5.4% 25.0% 10.5% 43

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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