TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ CWS

Neutral air · 1.04×

TEX @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Miguel Vargas conv 31 · vs Rocker ⟷ Jake Burger conv 17 · vs Proxy → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Kumar Rocker RHP · TEX

leak 84

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · leakiest side of this game

1 Miguel Vargas +425 C+ ●●●●●

2 Munetaka Murakami +265 B ●●●●●

3 Tristan Peters +850 D ●●●●○

FADE CWS Bullpen Proxy · CWS

leak 43

1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jake Burger +500 C ●●●○○

2 Joc Pederson +305 C+ ●●○○○

3 Corey Seager +290 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: 20.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Rocker +425 0.253 · 90.8 · 10.8% 33.3% 29.0% F B O C+ 66

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Rocker Edge +265 0.296 · 94.0 · 12.7% 25.0% 35.7% F B O B 71

· TEX Jake Burger vs Proxy +500 0.181 · 89.8 · 10.7% 16.7% 18.0% F B O C 54

· TEX Joc Pederson vs Proxy +305 0.242 · 92.2 · 10.9% 12.5% 18.7% F B O C+ 60

· TEX Corey Seager vs Proxy +290 0.191 · 91.5 · 15.1% 16.7% 14.1% F B O C 59

· CWS Colson Montgomery vs Rocker Edge +350 0.219 · 88.9 · 9.9% 8.3% 16.5% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Rocker Edge +850 0.161 · 87.2 · 6.5% 30.0% 17.1% F B O D 47

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Proxy +400 0.200 · 89.4 · 7.4% 7.7% 12.3% F B O D 49

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Rocker Edge +625 0.145 · 89.3 · 5.8% 8.3% 9.7% F B O D 41

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Proxy +850 0.169 · 88.7 · 6.0% 7.7% 10.2% F B O D 44

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Rocker +950 0.130 · 87.8 · 6.0% 8.3% 9.1% F B O D 40

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Rocker Edge +575 0.176 · 88.9 · 8.1% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 48

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Proxy +525 0.158 · 92.1 · 10.2% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 48

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Rocker Edge +850 0.122 · 87.4 · 6.6% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 39

· TEX Evan Carter vs Proxy +850 0.126 · 87.9 · 5.5% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 37

· TEX Nicky Lopez vs Proxy — 0.040 · 84.4 · — 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for CWS Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 56.8% ← leak BRK 38.3% OFF 5.0% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

23.8% 16.9% 15.4% 20.3% B 71 +265

Neutral · 2

Miguel Vargas R

16.9% 11.5% 13.5% 14.9% C+ 66 +425

Colson Montgomery L Edge

12.6% 10.9% 14.0% 12.5% C 57 +350

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

11.9% 4.4% 5.3% 8.5% D 48 +575

Tristan Peters L Edge

7.0% 4.9% 0.0% 5.5% D 47 +850

Braden Montgomery S Edge

6.0% 2.9% 2.2% 4.2% D 41 +625

Chase Meidroth R

4.4% 5.6% 3.8% 4.6% D 40 +950

Sam Antonacci L Edge

7.1% 4.8% 0.0% 5.5% D 39 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.8% usage) carries Rocker's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Seager Burger Murakami Vargas Peters

Legend

attack side — vs Rocker fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Miguel Vargas +425 · 66

Munetaka Murakami +265 · 71

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.04× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.04× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs CWS Bullpen Proxy 1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson 60 C+ +305 WARM 18 0.242 92.2 10.9% 24.4% 396 21.3% 12.5% 18.7% 18

2 Corey Seager 59 C +290 · 20 0.191 91.5 15.1% 20.0% 394 16.9% 16.7% 14.1% 36

3 Jake Burger 54 C +500 · 31 0.181 89.8 10.7% 18.3% 400 15.4% 16.7% 18.0% 26

4 Wyatt Langford 49 D +400 COOL 49 0.200 89.4 7.4% 15.2% 398 15.4% 7.7% 12.3% 36

5 Brandon Nimmo 48 D +525 COOL 55 0.158 92.1 10.2% 11.7% 403 10.0% 0.0% 9.2% 40

6 Ezequiel Duran 44 D +850 · 75 0.169 88.7 6.0% 13.8% 393 12.5% 7.7% 10.2% 32

7 Evan Carter 37 D +850 · 101 0.126 87.9 5.5% 8.5% 374 7.2% 0.0% 7.3% 27

8 Nicky Lopez 21 D — · 135 0.040 84.4 — 3.2% 397 1.9% 0.0% 6.6% 16

vs Kumar Rocker · RHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 71 B +265 · 1 0.296 94.0 12.7% 39.0%vs RHP 404 20.0% 25.0% 35.7% 28

2 Miguel Vargas 66 C+ +425 WARM 7 0.253 90.8 10.8% 17.2%vs RHP 393 21.4% 33.3% 29.0% 36

3 Colson Montgomery 57 C +350 · 16 0.219 88.9 9.9% 24.7%vs RHP 399 21.5% 8.3% 16.5% 26

4 Andrew Benintendi 48 D +575 COOL 39 0.176 88.9 8.1% 17.3%vs RHP 388 12.9% 0.0% 12.2% 26

5 Tristan Peters 47 D +850 WARM 44 0.161 87.2 6.5% 10.6%vs RHP 376 9.8% 30.0% 17.1% 29

6 Braden Montgomery 41 D +625 WARM 70 0.145 89.3 5.8% 15.0%vs RHP 390 7.1% 8.3% 9.7% 33

7 Chase Meidroth 40 D +950 COOL 77 0.130 87.8 6.0% 16.3%vs RHP 379 8.1% 8.3% 9.1% 38

8 Sam Antonacci 39 D +850 COOL 82 0.122 87.4 6.6% 13.6%vs RHP 390 8.8% 0.0% 8.6% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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