TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.18×

COL @ WSH

Nationals Park · 6:45p · 12 ranked batters

Park 1.18× Wind 7 mph cross 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

6:45p

+2 ↑

7:45p

+1 ↑

8:45p

+0 ↑

9:45p

+1 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 6:45p at +4

Best of game Keibert Ruiz conv 13 · vs Feltner ⟷ Mickey Moniak conv 23 · vs Cavalli → edge: Mickey Moniak

ATTACK Ryan Feltner RHP · COL

leak 83

1.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.80 · leakiest side of this game

1 Keibert Ruiz +625 C ●●○○○

2 Cj Abrams — C+ ●●○○○

3 Jacob Young +950 C ●●○○○

FADE Cade Cavalli RHP · WSH

leak 75

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · stingy — thin edge

1 Mickey Moniak +425 C+ ●●●●○

2 Willi Castro +700 D ●●○○○

3 Jake Mccarthy +750 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Mickey Moniak: 10.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 18.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Mickey Moniak ✶ COOL vs Cavalli Edge +425 0.276 · 89.5 · 8.6% 18.2% 28.8% F B O C+ 63

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Feltner Edge +625 0.165 · 88.3 · 7.3% 14.3% 11.5% F B O C 53

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs Feltner Edge — 0.250 · 89.5 · 10.5% 0.0% 22.2% F B O C+ 67

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Feltner +950 0.148 · 88.3 · 8.2% 10.0% 11.4% F B O C 52

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Feltner +475 0.145 · 90.8 · 10.2% 10.0% 11.0% F B O C 57

· WSH Daylen Lile COOL vs Feltner Edge +500 0.157 · 88.3 · 9.5% 0.0% 11.6% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· COL Willi Castro COOL vs Cavalli Edge +700 0.155 · 88.0 · 7.7% 8.3% 11.7% F B O D 47

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Cavalli Edge +750 0.191 · 84.9 · 5.9% 0.0% 14.2% F B O D 47

· COL Tj Rumfield vs Cavalli Edge +750 0.152 · 83.9 · 5.6% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 41

· COL Ezequiel Tovar vs Cavalli +850 0.120 · 87.2 · 6.6% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 41

· COL Troy Johnston vs Cavalli Edge — 0.110 · 89.5 · 4.0% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 36

· WSH Nasim Nunez vs Feltner Edge — 0.035 · 85.2 · 1.8% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.3% ← leak BRK 39.8% OFF 7.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Mickey Moniak L Edge

9.4% 20.0% 2.0% 10.0% C+ 63 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

6.3% 1.2% 5.9% 5.0% D 47 +750

Willi Castro S Edge

10.5% 6.8% 5.1% 8.3% D 47 +700

Tj Rumfield L Edge

5.4% 1.8% 5.4% 4.3% D 41 +750

Ezequiel Tovar R

6.0% 6.4% 6.9% 6.3% D 41 +850

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.3% 2.4% 1.6% 2.2% D 36 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.3% usage) carries Cavalli's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 42.1% BRK 41.0% OFF 16.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Cj Abrams L Edge

10.6% 9.2% 11.8% 10.3% C+ 67 —

Dylan Crews R

6.6% 19.0% 14.3% 9.8% C 57 +475

Daylen Lile L Edge

8.0% 12.5% 4.3% 8.4% C 54 +500

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

6.1% 4.5% 2.3% 5.0% C 53 +625

Jacob Young R

8.3% 3.5% 2.9% 6.2% C 52 +950

Long shots · 1 — below the fade line

114

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 30 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Feltner's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Moniak

Legend

attack side — vs Feltner fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 1.18× Wind 7 mph cross 77°F open

↑

7 mph · cross

76°F

6:45p · peak

↑

7 mph · cross

74°F

7:45p

↑

6 mph · cross

71°F

8:45p

↑

6 mph · in

68°F

9:45p

↑

5 mph · in

65°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.18× 77°F, wind 7 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cade Cavalli · RHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mickey Moniak ✶ 63 C+ +425 COOL 8 0.276 89.5 8.6% 22.7%vs RHP 415 18.2% 18.2% 28.8% 28

2 Jake Mccarthy 47 D +750 COOL 45 0.191 84.9 5.9% 15.0%vs RHP 416 11.1% 0.0% 14.2% 39

3 Willi Castro 47 D +700 COOL 46 0.155 88.0 7.7% 16.4%vs RHP 410 11.0% 8.3% 11.7% 30

4 Tj Rumfield 41 D +750 · 73 0.152 83.9 5.6% 14.6%vs RHP 410 5.6% 0.0% 11.2% 30

5 Ezequiel Tovar 41 D +850 WARM 74 0.120 87.2 6.6% 14.5%vs RHP 408 7.2% 0.0% 9.4% 18

6 Troy Johnston 36 D — WARM 95 0.110 89.5 4.0% 6.8%vs RHP 415 1.1% 0.0% 8.6% 16

vs Ryan Feltner · RHP 1.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.80 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams 67 C+ — COOL 6 0.250 89.5 10.5% 29.9%vs RHP 395 33.3% 0.0% 22.2% 21

2 Dylan Crews 57 C +475 · 17 0.145 90.8 10.2% 11.9%vs RHP 407 15.4% 10.0% 11.0% 32

3 Daylen Lile 54 C +500 COOL 23 0.157 88.3 9.5% 12.3%vs RHP 400 9.4% 0.0% 11.6% 37

4 Keibert Ruiz 53 C +625 COOL 25 0.165 88.3 7.3% 8.9%vs RHP 378 9.7% 14.3% 11.5% 22

5 Jacob Young 52 C +950 COOL 28 0.148 88.3 8.2% 13.0%vs RHP 399 7.6% 10.0% 11.4% 28

6 Nasim Nunez 30 D — WARM 114 0.035 85.2 1.8% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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