TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.41×

CHC @ AZ

Chase Field · 9:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 13 mph slight_out 103°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+2 ↑

6:40p

+1 ↑

7:40p

-3 ↑

8:40p

-9 ↑

9:40p

-11 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +2

Best of game Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 40 · vs Kelly ⟷ Nolan Arenado conv 25 · vs Gausman → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Merrill Kelly RHP · AZ

leak 95

1.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.03 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +330 B ●●●●●

2 Alex Bregman +700 C ●●●●○

3 Seiya Suzuki +475 C ●●●●○

FADE Kevin Gausman RHP · TOR

leak 66

1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nolan Arenado +625 D ●●●●○

2 Corbin Carroll +425 C ●●○○○

3 Tim Tawa +700 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: 12.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Kelly Edge +330 0.275 · 90.2 · 12.2% 50.0% 30.3% F B O B 71

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Kelly +700 0.165 · 88.4 · 8.0% 33.3% 18.6% F B O C 50

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Kelly +475 0.211 · 88.2 · 11.3% 25.0% 24.6% F B O C 59

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Kelly Edge +525 0.197 · 89.3 · 11.7% 20.0% 20.7% F B O C 58

· CHC Michael Busch vs Kelly Edge +500 0.151 · 88.2 · 10.5% 18.2% 13.3% F B O C 50

· — Corbin Carroll vs Gausman Edge +425 0.235 · 91.7 · 9.2% 16.7% 14.7% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· — Nolan Arenado COOL vs Gausman +625 0.203 · 85.1 · 7.1% 27.3% 22.7% F B O D 47

· — Tim Tawa vs Gausman +700 0.164 · 90.6 · 8.2% 18.2% 12.5% F B O D 42

· — Gabriel Moreno HOT vs Gausman +850 0.161 · 89.6 · 7.7% 16.7% 10.3% F B O D 41

· — Ildemaro Vargas vs Gausman Edge — 0.140 · 87.5 · 5.1% 10.0% 7.6% F B O D 33

· — Jose Fernandez vs Gausman +850 0.099 · 87.6 · 5.5% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 30

· CHC Nico Hoerner COOL vs Kelly — 0.099 · 85.9 · 3.6% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 31

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Kelly +850 0.110 · 87.2 · 8.0% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 39

· — Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Gausman +950 0.113 · 87.5 · 6.8% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 32

· — Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Gausman Edge — 0.126 · 87.5 · 4.7% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.1% ← leak OFF 27.4% BRK 21.5% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

11.1% 12.7% 13.8% 12.2% B 71 +330

Neutral · 4

Seiya Suzuki R

11.5% 12.0% 9.1% 10.7% C 59 +475

Ian Happ S Edge

15.4% 1.3% 13.9% 11.3% C 58 +525

Alex Bregman R

4.0% 8.3% 7.7% 5.3% C 50 +700

Michael Busch L Edge

11.9% 2.0% 5.0% 9.0% C 50 +500

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Carson Kelly R

6.0% 5.6% 4.1% 5.3% D 39 +850

110

Nico Hoerner R

1.0% 2.1% 0.9% 1.1% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.1% usage) carries Kelly's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 50.9% ← leak OFF 39.5% BRK 9.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Corbin Carroll L Edge

10.6% 9.0% 14.5% 11.5% C 51 +425

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Nolan Arenado R

9.8% 5.7% 1.9% 6.8% D 47 +625

Tim Tawa R

8.9% 8.7% 10.0% 9.1% D 42 +700

Gabriel Moreno R

8.5% 7.3% 7.8% 8.1% D 41 +850

103

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.7% 1.4% 2.8% 3.6% D 33 —

105

Ryan Waldschmidt R

7.4% 0.0% 6.7% 6.3% D 32 +950

111

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

3.9% 2.1% 1.5% 3.0% D 31 —

113

Jose Fernandez R

3.9% 0.0% 5.7% 4.2% D 30 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.9% usage) carries Gausman's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Happ Bregman Busch Carroll Arenado Tawa Moreno

Legend

attack side — vs Kelly fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Pete Crow-Armstrong +330 · 71

Alex Bregman +700 · 50

Seiya Suzuki +475 · 59

Ian Happ +525 · 58

Nolan Arenado +625 · 47

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.94× Wind 13 mph slight_out 103°F retractable

↑

9 mph · slight_out

103°F

6:40p · peak

↑

10 mph · slight_out

100°F

7:40p

-3

↑

10 mph · cross

98°F

8:40p

-9

↑

11 mph · in

96°F

9:40p

-11

↑

12 mph · in

94°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.41× 103°F, wind 13 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Merrill Kelly · RHP 1.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.03 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 71 B +330 · 3 0.275 90.2 12.2% 24.5%vs RHP 394 22.1% 50.0% 30.3% 38

2 Seiya Suzuki 59 C +475 WARM 9 0.211 88.2 11.3% 22.7%vs RHP 406 16.7% 25.0% 24.6% 31

3 Ian Happ 58 C +525 COOL 15 0.197 89.3 11.7% 23.7%vs RHP 404 18.0% 20.0% 20.7% 28

4 Alex Bregman 50 C +700 WARM 32 0.165 88.4 8.0% 20.0%vs RHP 389 11.7% 33.3% 18.6% 38

5 Michael Busch 50 C +500 · 33 0.151 88.2 10.5% 12.8%vs RHP 403 13.0% 18.2% 13.3% 29

6 Carson Kelly 39 D +850 COOL 83 0.110 87.2 8.0% 6.5%vs RHP 413 6.7% 0.0% 7.2% 25

7 Nico Hoerner 31 D — COOL 110 0.099 85.9 3.6% 7.6%vs RHP 381 5.5% 0.0% 7.4% 42

vs Kevin Gausman · RHP 1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 51 C +425 · 30 0.235 91.7 9.2% 16.7%vs RHP 402 13.5% 16.7% 14.7% 38

2 Nolan Arenado 47 D +625 COOL 43 0.203 85.1 7.1% 20.9%vs RHP 389 15.8% 27.3% 22.7% 29

3 Tim Tawa 42 D +700 · 61 0.164 90.6 8.2% 22.6%vs RHP 400 9.1% 18.2% 12.5% 36

4 Gabriel Moreno 41 D +850 HOT 68 0.161 89.6 7.7% 14.8%vs RHP 401 9.5% 16.7% 10.3% 39

5 Ildemaro Vargas 33 D — WARM 103 0.140 87.5 5.1% 10.3%vs RHP 396 5.2% 10.0% 7.6% 40

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 32 D +950 COOL 105 0.113 87.5 6.8% 7.4%vs RHP 419 2.5% 0.0% 7.2% 26

7 Geraldo Perdomo 31 D — COOL 111 0.126 87.5 4.7% 10.3%vs RHP 383 7.0% 0.0% 7.0% 39

8 Jose Fernandez 30 D +850 WARM 113 0.099 87.6 5.5% 23.1%vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 13

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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