TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ SD

Neutral air · 0.99×

PIT @ SD

Petco Park · 9:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 5 mph slight_out 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

6:40p

+1 ↑

7:40p

-1 ↑

8:40p

-2 ↑

9:40p

-2 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +1

Best of game Jackson Merrill conv 22 · vs Ashcraft ⟷ Oneil Cruz conv 35 · vs Ray → edge: Oneil Cruz

ATTACK Braxton Ashcraft RHP · PIT

leak 77

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.46 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Merrill +425 D ●●●○○

2 Ty France +625 D ●●●○○

3 Gavin Sheets +750 D ●●○○○

FADE Robbie Ray LHP · SF

leak 8

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · stingy — thin edge

1 Oneil Cruz +370 C ●●●●●

2 Brandon Lowe +500 C ●●●○○

3 Jared Triolo — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Oneil Cruz: 17.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Oneil Cruz ✶ vs Ray +370 0.228 · 96.0 · 12.3% 50.0% 19.4% F B O C 59

· — Brandon Lowe COOL vs Ray +500 0.227 · 91.2 · 10.2% 18.2% 16.2% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Ashcraft Edge +425 0.171 · 90.7 · 8.8% 25.0% 18.6% F B O D 46

· SD Ty France COOL vs Ashcraft +625 0.223 · 92.2 · 8.3% 16.7% 17.5% F B O D 48

· SD Gavin Sheets vs Ashcraft Edge +750 0.181 · 87.5 · 7.0% 11.1% 20.5% F B O D 41

· SD Xander Bogaerts HOT vs Ashcraft +850 0.107 · 88.9 · 6.5% 16.7% 10.6% F B O D 33

· SD Manny Machado COOL vs Ashcraft +475 0.194 · 90.8 · 8.1% 8.3% 12.7% F B O D 45

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Ashcraft Edge +850 0.078 · 87.1 · 4.9% 8.3% 7.3% F B O D 26

· — Jared Triolo vs Ray Edge — 0.068 · 87.2 · 4.5% 10.0% 5.6% F B O D 27

· SD Fernando Tatis HOT vs Ashcraft — 0.153 · 92.8 · 9.0% 0.0% 14.3% F B O D 37

· — Bryan Reynolds vs Ray Edge +425 0.166 · 90.6 · 9.8% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 44

· — Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Ray — 0.147 · 86.8 · 7.9% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 38

· SD Freddy Fermin COOL vs Ashcraft +950 0.112 · 87.1 · 5.1% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 29

· — Jake Mangum vs Ray Edge — 0.090 · 85.3 · 4.2% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 27

· — Nick Gonzales COOL vs Ray Edge +850 0.091 · 86.2 · 4.8% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 48.9% FB 46.7% OFF 4.5% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Ty France R

10.1% 10.3% 10.0% 10.2% D 48 +625

Jackson Merrill L Edge

10.3% 13.2% 8.1% 11.3% D 46 +425

Manny Machado R

6.1% 11.5% 8.9% 9.7% D 45 +475

Gavin Sheets L Edge

5.9% 9.7% 1.7% 7.2% D 41 +750

Fernando Tatis R

13.0% 11.0% 15.2% 12.0% D 37 —

102

Xander Bogaerts R

4.5% 7.3% 3.4% 6.2% D 33 +850

117

Freddy Fermin R

4.9% 2.8% 9.1% 3.8% D 29 +950

130

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

2.6% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% D 26 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Ashcraft's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.5% ← leak BRK 35.5% OFF 18.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Oneil Cruz L

17.5% 21.3% 10.0% 17.2% C 59 +370

Brandon Lowe L

15.9% 7.6% 10.0% 12.2% C 54 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.8% 12.5% 8.3% 11.3% D 44 +425

Spencer Horwitz L

7.0% 6.3% 10.0% 7.2% D 38 —

118

Nick Gonzales R Edge

2.2% 4.6% 0.0% 2.7% D 28 +850

125

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.5% 1.1% 0.0% 2.1% D 27 —

126

Jared Triolo R Edge

2.9% 2.4% 0.0% 2.4% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.5% usage) carries Ray's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → France Merrill Sheets Bogaerts Cruz Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Ashcraft fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Oneil Cruz +370 · 59

Jackson Merrill +425 · 46

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.90× Wind 5 mph slight_out 82°F open

↑

5 mph · out

78°F

6:40p · peak

↑

4 mph · out

76°F

7:40p

-1

↑

3 mph · slight_out

75°F

8:40p

-2

↑

3 mph · slight_out

74°F

9:40p

-2

↑

3 mph · slight_out

74°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 0.99× 82°F, wind 5 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Braxton Ashcraft · RHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.46 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 48 D +625 COOL 38 0.223 92.2 8.3% 28.0%vs RHP 394 16.0% 16.7% 17.5% 34

2 Jackson Merrill 46 D +425 WARM 48 0.171 90.7 8.8% 19.5%vs RHP 412 16.3% 25.0% 18.6% 30

3 Manny Machado 45 D +475 COOL 52 0.194 90.8 8.1% 27.0%vs RHP 397 17.6% 8.3% 12.7% 38

4 Gavin Sheets 41 D +750 · 67 0.181 87.5 7.0% 30.9%vs RHP 395 10.6% 11.1% 20.5% 13

5 Fernando Tatis 37 D — HOT 88 0.153 92.8 9.0% 13.2%vs RHP 414 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 40

6 Xander Bogaerts 33 D +850 HOT 102 0.107 88.9 6.5% 16.7%vs RHP 400 8.2% 16.7% 10.6% 29

7 Freddy Fermin 29 D +950 COOL 117 0.112 87.1 5.1% 6.7%vs RHP 382 2.6% 0.0% 6.5% 15

8 Jake Cronenworth 26 D +850 COOL 130 0.078 87.1 4.9% 9.1%vs RHP 392 2.4% 8.3% 7.3% 30

vs Robbie Ray · LHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Oneil Cruz ✶ 59 C +370 WARM 10 0.228 96.0 12.3% 50.0%vs LHP 415 25.0% 50.0% 19.4% 7

2 Brandon Lowe 54 C +500 COOL 22 0.227 91.2 10.2% 16.1%vs LHP 391 16.9% 18.2% 16.2% 28

3 Bryan Reynolds 44 D +425 · 58 0.166 90.6 9.8% 17.6%vs LHP 409 10.9% 0.0% 9.6% 35

4 Spencer Horwitz 38 D — COOL 85 0.147 86.8 7.9% 14.3%vs LHP 395 9.9% 0.0% 7.1% 26

5 Nick Gonzales 28 D +850 COOL 118 0.091 86.2 4.8% 3.5%vs LHP 397 6.6% 0.0% 6.0% 25

6 Jake Mangum 27 D — WARM 125 0.090 85.3 4.2% 5.9%vs LHP 393 4.7% 0.0% 6.3% 25

7 Jared Triolo 27 D — WARM 126 0.068 87.2 4.5% 0.0%vs LHP 407 1.4% 10.0% 5.6% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.