TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ SF

Neutral air · 1.03×

CIN @ SF

Oracle Park · 9:45p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.85× Wind 9 mph out 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

6:45p

+3 ↑

7:45p

+3 ↑

8:45p

+2 ↑

9:45p

+2 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 6:45p at +6

Best of game Bryce Eldridge conv 22 · vs Burns ⟷ Matt Mclain conv 23 · vs Proxy → edge: Jj Bleday

ATTACK Chase Burns RHP · CIN

leak 85

0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.25 · leakiest side of this game

1 Bryce Eldridge +575 D ●●●○○

2 Drew Gilbert — D ●●●○○

3 Willy Adames — D ●●●○○

FADE SF Bullpen Proxy · SF

leak 37

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Mclain +950 D ●●●●○

2 Jj Bleday +750 D ●●●○○

3 Sal Stewart +525 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jj Bleday: Match 11.4% · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Sal Stewart COOL vs Proxy +525 0.211 · 90.1 · 12.6% 14.3% 11.2% F B O C 51

· CIN Elly De La Cruz COOL vs Proxy +700 0.212 · 93.8 · 13.7% 7.1% 11.5% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· CIN Matt Mclain vs Proxy +950 0.164 · 88.0 · 10.5% 33.3% 13.1% F B O D 43

· CIN Jj Bleday ✶ COOL vs Proxy +750 0.225 · 88.8 · 10.0% 33.3% 11.4% F B O D 48

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Burns Edge +575 0.187 · 92.4 · 9.3% 25.0% 18.8% F B O D 45

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs Burns Edge — 0.135 · 86.4 · 5.8% 30.0% 13.0% F B O D 32

· SF Willy Adames vs Burns — 0.195 · 87.3 · 8.0% 22.2% 15.7% F B O D 42

· SF Rafael Devers vs Burns Edge +500 0.228 · 92.5 · 8.9% 16.7% 19.1% F B O D 48

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Proxy +750 0.167 · 91.2 · 12.4% 8.3% 13.0% F B O D 45

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Burns Edge — 0.138 · 87.0 · 4.3% 9.1% 7.4% F B O D 27

· CIN Eugenio Suarez COOL vs Proxy +575 0.203 · 88.7 · 10.9% 0.0% 14.0% F B O D 42

· CIN Tj Friedl COOL vs Proxy — 0.077 · 87.4 · 2.4% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for SF Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 56.5% ← leak BRK 38.3% OFF 5.1% Overall Score

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Rafael Devers L Edge

12.0% 10.0% 7.6% 10.6% D 48 +500

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

11.9% 8.7% 15.6% 11.7% D 45 +575

Willy Adames R

8.1% 8.1% 13.8% 8.6% D 42 —

106

Drew Gilbert L Edge

5.1% 6.1% 0.0% 4.5% D 32 —

128

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.5% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.5% usage) carries Burns's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bleday Mclain Devers Eldridge Adames Gilbert

Legend

attack side — vs Burns fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Bryce Eldridge +575 · 45

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.85× Wind 9 mph out 73°F open

↑

10 mph · out

74°F

6:45p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

69°F

7:45p

↑

8 mph · out

66°F

8:45p

↑

7 mph · out

65°F

9:45p

↑

7 mph · out

63°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.03× 73°F, wind 9 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs SF Bullpen Proxy 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz 53 C +700 COOL 35 0.212 93.8 13.7% 23.6% 398 16.2% 7.1% 11.5% 37

2 Sal Stewart 51 C +525 COOL 42 0.211 90.1 12.6% 21.3% 397 16.4% 14.3% 11.2% 45

3 Jj Bleday ✶ 48 D +750 COOL 56 0.225 88.8 10.0% 17.5% 387 25.0% 33.3% 11.4% 35

4 Tyler Stephenson 45 D +750 · 63 0.167 91.2 12.4% 13.8% 392 8.7% 8.3% 13.0% 25

5 Matt Mclain 43 D +950 WARM 79 0.164 88.0 10.5% 12.5% 394 20.0% 33.3% 13.1% 33

6 Eugenio Suarez 42 D +575 COOL 84 0.203 88.7 10.9% 20.9% 394 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 31

7 Tj Friedl 23 D — COOL 132 0.077 87.4 2.4% 4.8% 374 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 8

vs Chase Burns · RHP 0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.25 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 48 D +500 · 41 0.228 92.5 8.9% 26.8%vs RHP 398 18.1% 16.7% 19.1% 31

2 Bryce Eldridge 45 D +575 WARM 54 0.187 92.4 9.3% 20.4%vs RHP 400 19.0% 25.0% 18.8% 32

3 Willy Adames 42 D — WARM 62 0.195 87.3 8.0% 21.0%vs RHP 389 15.4% 22.2% 15.7% 22

4 Drew Gilbert 32 D — HOT 106 0.135 86.4 5.8% 16.7%vs RHP 392 6.4% 30.0% 13.0% 20

5 Jung Hoo Lee 27 D — · 128 0.138 87.0 4.3% 11.9%vs RHP 382 5.9% 9.1% 7.4% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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