TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ SEA

Neutral air · 1.00×

PHI @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 9:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 8 mph in 71°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-5 ↑

6:40p

-5 ↑

7:40p

-5 ↑

8:40p

-4 ↑

9:40p

-4 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 9:40p window peaks -4

Best of game Randy Arozarena conv 32 · vs Wheeler ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 30 · vs Gilbert → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Zack Wheeler RHP · PHI

leak 90

1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · leakiest side of this game

1 Randy Arozarena +700 C ●●●●●

2 Cal Raleigh +370 D ●●●○○

3 Dominic Canzone +475 C ●●○○○

FADE Logan Gilbert RHP · SEA

leak 80

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber +235 C+ ●●●●●

2 Bryce Harper +425 C ●●○○○

3 Brandon Marsh +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 17.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Randy Arozarena COOL vs Wheeler +700 0.187 · 90.7 · 6.9% 41.7% 23.1% F B O C 50

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs Gilbert Edge +235 0.283 · 92.8 · 13.1% 25.0% 34.8% F B O C+ 69

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Gilbert Edge +425 0.235 · 90.2 · 10.4% 8.3% 18.4% F B O C 56

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Wheeler Edge +475 0.227 · 91.0 · 8.6% 8.3% 17.2% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Wheeler Edge +370 0.146 · 89.3 · 8.6% 18.2% 15.7% F B O D 44

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Gilbert Edge +750 0.163 · 89.6 · 9.2% 10.0% 11.1% F B O D 45

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Wheeler +575 0.160 · 90.0 · 7.5% 8.3% 10.8% F B O D 43

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Gilbert +950 0.142 · 90.6 · 7.6% 10.0% 8.9% F B O D 41

· SEA Cole Young COOL vs Wheeler Edge +750 0.137 · 88.7 · 5.3% 9.1% 9.5% F B O D 37

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Gilbert Edge +750 0.149 · 89.1 · 7.6% 9.1% 8.7% F B O D 40

· PHI Trea Turner COOL vs Gilbert +750 0.146 · 88.6 · 7.7% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 41

· PHI J.T. Realmuto COOL vs Gilbert +850 0.127 · 89.8 · 6.6% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 34

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Wheeler Edge +750 0.102 · 87.6 · 5.3% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 31

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Gilbert Edge — 0.089 · 87.1 · 3.7% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.3% ← leak BRK 32.3% OFF 21.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

16.6% 14.9% 30.0% 17.4% C+ 69 +235

Bryce Harper L Edge

10.9% 13.5% 6.9% 11.0% C 56 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Brandon Marsh L Edge

7.0% 15.2% 3.7% 8.7% D 45 +750

Trea Turner R

7.9% 4.3% 2.4% 6.0% D 41 +750

Alec Bohm R

4.6% 6.7% 10.5% 5.8% D 41 +950

Bryson Stott L Edge

7.6% 3.7% 4.8% 5.9% D 40 +750

J.T. Realmuto R

3.7% 6.2% 4.2% 4.4% D 34 +850

121

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.9% 1.2% 0.0% 1.4% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.3% usage) carries Gilbert's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 61.6% ← leak BRK 22.7% OFF 15.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Dominic Canzone L Edge

14.8% 10.9% 8.3% 12.3% C 51 +475

Randy Arozarena R

8.2% 8.0% 6.6% 7.8% C 50 +700

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Cal Raleigh S Edge

10.7% 15.7% 13.0% 12.3% D 44 +370

Julio Rodríguez R

10.0% 7.8% 8.7% 9.2% D 43 +575

Cole Young L Edge

4.1% 8.6% 1.6% 4.6% D 37 +750

109

Josh Naylor L Edge

4.4% 8.0% 1.5% 4.7% D 31 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.6% usage) carries Wheeler's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Arozarena Raleigh

Legend

attack side — vs Wheeler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Randy Arozarena +700 · 50

Kyle Schwarber +235 · 69

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 1.00× Wind 8 mph in 71°F retractable

-5

↑

8 mph · in

72°F

6:40p

-5

↑

7 mph · in

70°F

7:40p

-5

↑

6 mph · in

69°F

8:40p

-4

↑

5 mph · in

68°F

9:40p · peak

-4

↑

4 mph · in

66°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.00× 71°F, wind 8 mph N (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Gilbert · RHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 69 C+ +235 · 4 0.283 92.8 13.1% 41.7%vs RHP 401 23.1% 25.0% 34.8% 38

2 Bryce Harper 56 C +425 · 19 0.235 90.2 10.4% 33.3%vs RHP 402 19.0% 8.3% 18.4% 29

3 Brandon Marsh 45 D +750 COOL 51 0.163 89.6 9.2% 19.7%vs RHP 391 12.0% 10.0% 11.1% 27

4 Trea Turner 41 D +750 COOL 69 0.146 88.6 7.7% 20.0%vs RHP 392 13.1% 0.0% 9.9% 29

5 Alec Bohm 41 D +950 WARM 71 0.142 90.6 7.6% 13.8%vs RHP 397 10.8% 10.0% 8.9% 38

6 Bryson Stott 40 D +750 COOL 76 0.149 89.1 7.6% 8.9%vs RHP 385 7.5% 9.1% 8.7% 37

7 J.T. Realmuto 34 D +850 COOL 97 0.127 89.8 6.6% 17.1%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 27

8 Justin Crawford 28 D — COOL 121 0.089 87.1 3.7% 4.3%vs RHP 382 2.1% 0.0% 7.1% 31

vs Zack Wheeler · RHP 1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 51 C +475 COOL 29 0.227 91.0 8.6% 25.0%vs RHP 402 15.1% 8.3% 17.2% 35

2 Randy Arozarena 50 C +700 COOL 34 0.187 90.7 6.9% 25.4%vs RHP 387 15.1% 41.7% 23.1% 34

3 Cal Raleigh 44 D +370 WARM 57 0.146 89.3 8.6% 11.3%vs RHP 391 13.5% 18.2% 15.7% 24

4 Julio Rodríguez 43 D +575 WARM 60 0.160 90.0 7.5% 18.6%vs RHP 405 15.8% 8.3% 10.8% 33

5 Cole Young 37 D +750 COOL 89 0.137 88.7 5.3% 17.3%vs RHP 385 11.2% 9.1% 9.5% 34

6 Josh Naylor 31 D +750 COOL 109 0.102 87.6 5.3% 11.5%vs RHP 392 6.5% 0.0% 8.4% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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