TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ DET

Suppressed air · 0.95×

BAL @ DET

Comerica Park · 6:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.87× Wind 7 mph in 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

-9 ↑

6:40p

-5 ↑

7:40p

-5 ↑

8:40p

-3 ↑

9:40p

+0 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +0

Best of game Dillon Dingler conv 25 · vs Bradish ⟷ Coby Mayo conv 19 · vs Montero → edge: Dillon Dingler

ATTACK Kyle Bradish RHP · BAL

leak 84

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dillon Dingler +500 C ●●●●○

2 Spencer Torkelson +425 C ●●●○○

3 Riley Greene +400 D ●●●○○

FADE Keider Montero RHP · DET

leak 76

0.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.59 · stingy — thin edge

1 Coby Mayo — D ●●●○○

2 Pete Alonso +320 D ●●○○○

3 Gunnar Henderson +400 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dillon Dingler: Match 27.9% · 14D pace 22.2% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Dillon Dingler ✶ vs Bradish +500 0.260 · 89.7 · 9.5% 22.2% 27.9% F B O C 55

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Bradish +425 0.212 · 89.9 · 10.7% 22.2% 22.8% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Montero — 0.205 · 92.4 · 9.1% 20.0% 17.6% F B O D 45

· DET Riley Greene vs Bradish Edge +400 0.183 · 91.6 · 11.1% 20.0% 14.8% F B O D 47

· BAL Pete Alonso vs Montero +320 0.211 · 94.0 · 9.6% 10.0% 13.1% F B O D 48

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Montero Edge +400 0.183 · 89.4 · 7.2% 10.0% 9.5% F B O D 40

· BAL Taylor Ward vs Montero +525 0.106 · 89.4 · 6.5% 10.0% 6.1% F B O D 30

· DET Kerry Carpenter COOL vs Bradish Edge +425 0.209 · 89.8 · 8.7% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 43

· DET Colt Keith COOL vs Bradish Edge +575 0.141 · 88.6 · 7.8% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 34

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Montero Edge +400 0.125 · 87.0 · 8.7% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 35

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Bradish +750 0.105 · 85.5 · 7.6% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 31

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Bradish Edge +525 0.138 · 88.2 · 7.7% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 33

· DET Matt Vierling vs Bradish +750 0.119 · 87.6 · 6.3% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 31

· DET Zach Mckinstry HOT vs Bradish Edge +850 0.098 · 85.1 · 4.8% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 26

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Montero Edge +700 0.117 · 87.0 · 5.7% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.7% ← leak BRK 32.6% OFF 13.7% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Pete Alonso R

14.2% 7.3% 15.2% 12.3% D 48 +320

Coby Mayo R

11.5% 10.9% 10.5% 11.2% D 45 —

105

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

7.5% 6.5% 7.6% 7.2% D 40 +400

134

Colton Cowser L Edge

14.9% 10.8% 2.5% 10.4% D 35 +400

162

Taylor Ward R

7.8% 1.3% 2.9% 5.5% D 30 +525

165

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.3% 9.3% 0.0% 4.5% D 28 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.7% usage) carries Montero's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.4% BRK 48.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Dillon Dingler R

12.6% 10.0% 11.4% C 55 +500

Spencer Torkelson R

15.4% 10.9% 14.4% C 51 +425

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Riley Greene L Edge

17.6% 16.4% 15.6% D 47 +400

Kerry Carpenter L Edge

9.7% 11.1% 9.6% D 43 +425

140

Colt Keith L Edge

7.7% 13.5% 7.8% D 34 +575

147

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

8.9% 7.7% 7.5% D 33 +525

155

Gleyber Torres R

8.6% 6.1% 7.4% D 31 +750

156

Matt Vierling R

7.8% 2.8% 5.1% D 31 +750

173

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

4.1% 2.0% 3.0% D 26 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Bradish's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Mayo Dingler Torkelson Greene

Legend

attack side — vs Bradish fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Dillon Dingler +500 · 55

Spencer Torkelson +425 · 51

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.87× Wind 7 mph in 86°F open

-9

↑

7 mph · in

86°F

6:40p

-5

↑

3 mph · in

84°F

7:40p

-5

↑

4 mph · cross

80°F

8:40p

-3

↑

5 mph · slight_out

77°F

9:40p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

73°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.95× 86°F, wind 7 mph S (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Keider Montero · RHP 0.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.59 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 48 D +320 WARM 56 0.211 94.0 9.6% 27.0%vs RHP 401 19.0% 10.0% 13.1% 26

2 Coby Mayo 45 D — WARM 76 0.205 92.4 9.1% 10.7%vs RHP 406 15.4% 20.0% 17.6% 8

3 Gunnar Henderson 40 D +400 COOL 105 0.183 89.4 7.2% 17.9%vs RHP 390 16.5% 10.0% 9.5% 25

4 Colton Cowser 35 D +400 WARM 134 0.125 87.0 8.7% 18.2%vs RHP 417 13.5% 0.0% 6.9% 12

5 Taylor Ward 30 D +525 WARM 162 0.106 89.4 6.5% 5.4%vs RHP 388 6.6% 10.0% 6.1% 28

6 Leody Taveras 28 D +700 COOL 165 0.117 87.0 5.7% 11.4%vs RHP 420 2.8% 0.0% 6.2% 16

vs Kyle Bradish · RHP 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler ✶ 55 C +500 · 23 0.260 89.7 9.5% 31.8%vs RHP 396 19.6% 22.2% 27.9% 24

2 Spencer Torkelson 51 C +425 · 42 0.212 89.9 10.7% 25.8%vs RHP 394 16.7% 22.2% 22.8% 22

3 Riley Greene 47 D +400 WARM 63 0.183 91.6 11.1% 18.1%vs RHP 399 12.5% 20.0% 14.8% 28

4 Kerry Carpenter 43 D +425 COOL 84 0.209 89.8 8.7% 23.2%vs RHP 380 14.6% 0.0% 12.5% 25

5 Colt Keith 34 D +575 COOL 140 0.141 88.6 7.8% 13.6%vs RHP 389 6.8% 0.0% 7.5% 22

6 Kevin Mcgonigle 33 D +525 COOL 147 0.138 88.2 7.7% 8.2%vs RHP 399 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 29

7 Gleyber Torres 31 D +750 WARM 155 0.105 85.5 7.6% 10.3%vs RHP 388 6.6% 0.0% 6.9% 13

8 Matt Vierling 31 D +750 · 156 0.119 87.6 6.3% 7.9%vs RHP 377 7.0% 0.0% 6.6% 18

9 Zach Mckinstry 26 D +850 HOT 173 0.098 85.1 4.8% 7.4%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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