TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ STL

Busch Stadium is live · 1.30×

CHC @ STL

Busch Stadium · 7:45p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.87× Wind 8 mph out 95°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

6:45p

+4 ↑

7:45p

+2 ↑

8:45p

+0 ↑

9:45p

+1 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 6:45p at +5

Best of game Seiya Suzuki conv 26 · vs Proxy ⟷ Jj Wetherholt conv 22 · vs Peterson → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK STL Bullpen Proxy

leak 46

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Seiya Suzuki +370 C ●●●●○

2 Pete Crow-Armstrong +370 C ●●●○○

3 Michael Busch +525 D ●●●○○

FADE David Peterson LHP · NYM

leak 23

0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jj Wetherholt +575 D ●●●○○

2 Jordan Walker +350 D ●○○○○

3 Alec Burleson +575 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 22.5% · 14D pace 22.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Seiya Suzuki vs Proxy +370 0.202 · 89.0 · 10.1% 33.3% 18.5% F B O C 50

· — Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ COOL vs Proxy +370 0.253 · 89.9 · 11.3% 22.2% 22.5% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· — Jj Wetherholt vs Peterson +575 0.142 · 90.0 · 6.9% 33.3% 10.3% F B O D 37

· — Michael Busch vs Proxy +525 0.156 · 88.5 · 9.9% 22.2% 12.0% F B O D 43

· — Michael Conforto COOL vs Proxy — 0.240 · 91.9 · 12.4% 0.0% 22.5% F B O D 49

· — Ian Happ COOL vs Proxy +425 0.205 · 89.4 · 11.8% 11.1% 11.2% F B O D 49

· — Alex Bregman vs Proxy +525 0.117 · 87.9 · 4.2% 12.5% 6.1% F B O D 29

· — Jordan Walker COOL vs Peterson Edge +350 0.227 · 93.5 · 9.6% 0.0% 14.1% F B O D 49

· — Dansby Swanson vs Proxy +500 0.195 · 89.7 · 7.6% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 41

· — Alec Burleson vs Peterson +575 0.182 · 91.6 · 8.7% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 42

· — Nathan Church COOL vs Peterson — 0.133 · 86.0 · 6.9% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 33

· — Ivan Herrera vs Peterson Edge +575 0.132 · 89.2 · 6.1% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 30

· — Carson Kelly COOL vs Proxy +525 0.118 · 87.8 · 6.2% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 31

· — José Fermín vs Peterson Edge +950 0.119 · 85.7 · 3.6% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 28

· — Nico Hoerner COOL vs Proxy +850 0.090 · 86.1 · 0.8% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 20

· — Masyn Winn vs Peterson Edge +850 0.081 · 88.1 · 4.6% 0.0% 5.0% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for STL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 52.9% ← leak BRK 34.9% OFF 12.3% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jordan Walker R Edge

14.1% 12.6% 16.1% 13.8% D 49 +350

Alec Burleson L

11.4% 10.4% 11.4% 11.1% D 42 +575

120

Jj Wetherholt L

10.3% 2.6% 2.2% 7.3% D 37 +575

145

Nathan Church L

8.7% 6.2% 6.0% 7.2% D 33 —

157

Ivan Herrera R Edge

5.0% 4.9% 7.3% 5.3% D 30 +575

164

José Fermín R Edge

2.2% 2.8% 0.0% 2.0% D 28 +950

178

Masyn Winn R Edge

3.8% 2.3% 3.4% 3.3% D 25 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.9% usage) carries Peterson's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Busch Wetherholt

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Seiya Suzuki +370 · 50

Pete Crow-Armstrong +370 · 56

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.87× Wind 8 mph out 95°F open

↑

8 mph · out

95°F

6:45p · peak

↑

6 mph · out

93°F

7:45p

↑

4 mph · out

92°F

8:45p

↑

2 mph · out

91°F

9:45p

↑

3 mph · out

89°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.30× 95°F, wind 8 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs STL Bullpen Proxy 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 56 C +370 COOL 34 0.253 89.9 11.3% 19.2% 392 20.0% 22.2% 22.5% 22

2 Seiya Suzuki 50 C +370 WARM 65 0.202 89.0 10.1% 19.1% 407 16.7% 33.3% 18.5% 20

3 Michael Conforto 49 D — COOL 70 0.240 91.9 12.4% 20.9% 399 8.8% 0.0% 22.5% 11

4 Ian Happ 49 D +425 COOL 71 0.205 89.4 11.8% 18.4% 404 18.3% 11.1% 11.2% 20

5 Michael Busch 43 D +525 WARM 107 0.156 88.5 9.9% 12.3% 403 13.2% 22.2% 12.0% 26

6 Dansby Swanson 41 D +500 · 119 0.195 89.7 7.6% 15.7% 403 12.6% 0.0% 10.2% 28

7 Carson Kelly 31 D +525 COOL 166 0.118 87.8 6.2% 10.3% 416 6.8% 0.0% 6.3% 16

8 Alex Bregman 29 D +525 · 174 0.117 87.9 4.2% 8.1% 391 8.8% 12.5% 6.1% 22

9 Nico Hoerner 20 D +850 COOL 181 0.090 86.1 0.8% 3.7% 383 3.8% 0.0% 5.6% 34

vs David Peterson · LHP 0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 49 D +350 COOL 51 0.227 93.5 9.6% 37.5%vs LHP 406 18.3% 0.0% 14.1% 31

2 Alec Burleson 42 D +575 · 90 0.182 91.6 8.7% 6.9%vs LHP 407 15.0% 0.0% 9.9% 33

3 Jj Wetherholt 37 D +575 · 120 0.142 90.0 6.9% 10.5%vs LHP 390 16.7% 33.3% 10.3% 32

4 Nathan Church 33 D — COOL 145 0.133 86.0 6.9% 22.2%vs LHP 388 8.7% 0.0% 8.9% 22

5 Ivan Herrera 30 D +575 · 157 0.132 89.2 6.1% 25.0%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 28

6 José Fermín 28 D +950 WARM 164 0.119 85.7 3.6% 10.5%vs LHP 384 5.0% 0.0% 6.0% 19

7 Masyn Winn 25 D +850 · 178 0.081 88.1 4.6% 0.0%vs LHP 390 4.0% 0.0% 5.0% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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