TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ MIA

Playable air · 1.08×

PHI @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 6:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 9 mph cross 86°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-3 ↑

6:40p

-1 ↑

7:40p

+1 ↑

8:40p

+3 ↑

9:40p

+4 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +4

Best of game Kyle Stowers conv 12 · vs Wheeler ⟷ Trea Turner conv 23 · vs Phillips → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Zack Wheeler RHP · PHI

leak 88

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Stowers +425 D ●●○○○

2 Liam Hicks +850 D ●●○○○

3 Heriberto Hernández +575 D ●○○○○

FADE Tyler Phillips RHP · MIA

leak 81

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · stingy — thin edge

1 Trea Turner +625 D ●●●●○

2 Alec Bohm +850 D ●●●○○

3 Kyle Schwarber +210 C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 18.4% · 14D pace 11.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Phillips Edge +210 0.297 · 93.2 · 11.9% 11.1% 18.4% F B O C+ 62

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Phillips Edge +400 0.233 · 90.1 · 9.3% 11.1% 17.6% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· PHI Trea Turner HOT vs Phillips +625 0.144 · 89.0 · 7.1% 33.3% 13.4% F B O D 42

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Phillips +850 0.145 · 90.6 · 6.5% 22.2% 10.7% F B O D 40

· PHI Brandon Marsh vs Phillips Edge +700 0.183 · 89.7 · 8.6% 14.3% 11.8% F B O D 45

· MIA Kyle Stowers vs Wheeler Edge +425 0.197 · 91.8 · 8.6% 11.1% 12.8% F B O D 42

· MIA Liam Hicks COOL vs Wheeler Edge +850 0.162 · 85.1 · 5.0% 11.1% 10.4% F B O D 34

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Phillips Edge +750 0.144 · 89.1 · 7.6% 11.1% 7.4% F B O D 38

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Wheeler +575 0.237 · 92.2 · 9.1% 0.0% 14.2% F B O D 41

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Wheeler +950 0.164 · 89.5 · 6.5% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 34

· PHI J.T. Realmuto COOL vs Phillips +750 0.131 · — · 6.0% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 30

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Wheeler Edge +950 0.093 · 86.7 · 4.4% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 25

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Phillips Edge — 0.087 · 86.4 · 2.6% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 25

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Wheeler Edge +1000 0.115 · 86.9 · 5.1% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 27

· MIA Javier Sanoja COOL vs Wheeler — 0.128 · 86.9 · 2.7% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 41.3% FB 34.5% OFF 23.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

15.5% 18.0% 26.9% 18.2% C+ 62 +210

Bryce Harper L Edge

15.2% 9.4% 7.0% 11.0% C 52 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Brandon Marsh L Edge

15.1% 8.4% 2.8% 9.5% D 45 +700

Trea Turner R

5.0% 8.6% 0.0% 6.6% D 42 +625

101

Alec Bohm R

4.8% 5.1% 9.1% 5.4% D 40 +850

118

Bryson Stott L Edge

4.9% 8.8% 5.8% 7.1% D 38 +750

158

J.T. Realmuto R

4.0% 4.5% 6.7% 4.6% D 30 +750

176

Justin Crawford L Edge

0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.9% D 25 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Phillips's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 62.2% ← leak BRK 22.3% OFF 15.5% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Kyle Stowers L Edge

12.0% 14.6% 2.9% 11.0% D 42 +425

Heriberto Hernández R

13.3% 13.5% 14.3% 13.5% D 41 +575

137

Liam Hicks L Edge

3.4% 5.9% 3.8% 4.1% D 34 +850

138

Otto Lopez R

10.3% 3.9% 2.1% 6.9% D 34 +950

171

Xavier Edwards S Edge

5.2% 2.7% 3.2% 4.3% D 27 +1000

175

Jakob Marsee L Edge

2.8% 0.0% 8.6% 3.1% D 25 +950

177

Javier Sanoja R

0.7% 2.6% 0.0% 1.3% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (62.2% usage) carries Wheeler's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Marsh Turner Bohm

Legend

attack side — vs Wheeler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.90× Wind 9 mph cross 86°F retractable

-3

↑

9 mph · cross

86°F

6:40p

-1

↑

11 mph · slight_out

84°F

7:40p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

82°F

8:40p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

81°F

9:40p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

79°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.08× 86°F, wind 9 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tyler Phillips · RHP 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 62 C+ +210 COOL 10 0.297 93.2 11.9% 42.0%vs RHP 403 24.5% 11.1% 18.4% 21

2 Bryce Harper 52 C +400 · 36 0.233 90.1 9.3% 35.3%vs RHP 400 18.8% 11.1% 17.6% 19

3 Brandon Marsh 45 D +700 · 74 0.183 89.7 8.6% 24.1%vs RHP 393 13.7% 14.3% 11.8% 20

4 Trea Turner 42 D +625 HOT 87 0.144 89.0 7.1% 19.6%vs RHP 391 13.1% 33.3% 13.4% 25

5 Alec Bohm 40 D +850 WARM 101 0.145 90.6 6.5% 18.9%vs RHP 396 12.2% 22.2% 10.7% 30

6 Bryson Stott 38 D +750 WARM 118 0.144 89.1 7.6% 8.5%vs RHP 389 8.3% 11.1% 7.4% 21

7 J.T. Realmuto 30 D +750 COOL 158 0.131 — 6.0% 18.8%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 22

8 Justin Crawford 25 D — COOL 176 0.087 86.4 2.6% 5.7%vs RHP 382 2.8% 0.0% 6.5% 14

vs Zack Wheeler · RHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 42 D +425 · 89 0.197 91.8 8.6% 22.0%vs RHP 397 11.8% 11.1% 12.8% 20

2 Heriberto Hernández 41 D +575 WARM 93 0.237 92.2 9.1% 16.2%vs RHP 412 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 23

3 Liam Hicks 34 D +850 COOL 137 0.162 85.1 5.0% 22.0%vs RHP 378 14.9% 11.1% 10.4% 24

4 Otto Lopez 34 D +950 COOL 138 0.164 89.5 6.5% 12.5%vs RHP 402 7.9% 0.0% 9.3% 24

5 Xavier Edwards 27 D +1000 COOL 171 0.115 86.9 5.1% 3.4%vs RHP 396 4.9% 0.0% 6.4% 22

6 Jakob Marsee 25 D +950 COOL 175 0.093 86.7 4.4% 7.8%vs RHP 379 6.0% 0.0% 7.0% 12

7 Javier Sanoja 25 D — COOL 177 0.128 86.9 2.7% 3.5%vs RHP 385 4.5% 0.0% 6.4% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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