TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ PIT

Suppressed air · 0.89×

AZ @ PIT

PNC Park · 6:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.81× Wind 4 mph slight_out 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

6:40p

-4 ↑

7:40p

-4 ↑

8:40p

-4 ↑

9:40p

-4 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at -3

Best of game Nick Gonzales conv 23 · vs Kelly ⟷ Corbin Carroll conv 20 · vs Keller → edge: Corbin Carroll

ATTACK Merrill Kelly RHP · AZ

leak 93

1.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.16 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nick Gonzales +950 D ●●●●○

2 Ryan O'Hearn +475 D ●●○○○

3 Brandon Lowe +305 C ●○○○○

FADE Mitch Keller RHP · PIT

leak 85

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · stingy — thin edge

1 Corbin Carroll +330 C ●●●○○

2 Ketel Marte +350 D ●●●○○

3 Nolan Arenado +575 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Corbin Carroll: Match 19.4% · 14D pace 20.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· AZ Corbin Carroll ✶ HOT vs Keller Edge +330 0.237 · 91.6 · 9.4% 20.0% 19.4% F B O C 51

· PIT Brandon Lowe COOL vs Kelly Edge +305 0.227 · 90.9 · 12.4% 0.0% 14.0% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Kelly +950 0.099 · 86.0 · 6.2% 36.4% 9.3% F B O D 36

· AZ Ketel Marte vs Keller Edge +350 0.198 · 90.9 · 8.6% 22.2% 13.3% F B O D 46

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Keller +575 0.180 · 85.2 · 7.2% 22.2% 12.3% F B O D 41

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Keller Edge +850 0.115 · 87.1 · 4.8% 20.0% 8.8% F B O D 31

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn vs Kelly Edge +475 0.181 · 89.7 · 10.0% 9.1% 10.9% F B O D 47

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Keller +750 0.136 · 89.5 · 7.4% 10.0% 5.8% F B O D 35

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Kelly Edge +425 0.183 · 90.9 · 12.1% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 49

· PIT Marcell Ozuna COOL vs Kelly — 0.125 · 89.3 · 10.2% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 40

· AZ Adrian Del Castillo COOL vs Keller Edge +500 0.129 · 89.0 · 7.1% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 34

· PIT Jake Mangum COOL vs Kelly Edge — 0.069 · 84.7 · 4.2% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 27

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Keller Edge — 0.135 · 87.4 · 4.8% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.3% BRK 33.8% OFF 8.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Corbin Carroll L Edge

10.4% 14.9% 12.3% 12.2% C 51 +330

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Ketel Marte S Edge

13.8% 8.1% 3.9% 10.2% D 46 +350

Nolan Arenado R

10.7% 2.4% 3.7% 7.3% D 41 +575

132

Gabriel Moreno R

7.6% 6.0% 9.7% 7.4% D 35 +750

139

Adrian Del Castillo L Edge

11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% D 34 +500

151

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

3.8% 0.0% 2.6% 2.9% D 31 +850

160

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.5% 1.7% 1.7% 3.3% D 30 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Keller's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.6% ← leak OFF 26.1% BRK 22.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Brandon Lowe L Edge

17.2% 10.0% 6.7% 12.3% C 54 +305

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.3% 6.5% 14.1% 10.9% D 49 +425

Ryan O'Hearn L Edge

8.2% 4.3% 7.0% 7.5% D 47 +475

104

Marcell Ozuna R

8.5% 0.0% 10.7% 8.2% D 40 —

123

Nick Gonzales R

2.1% 0.0% 5.8% 3.0% D 36 +950

170

Jake Mangum S Edge

2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.6% usage) carries Kelly's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Carroll Marte Arenado Perdomo Gonzales

Legend

attack side — vs Kelly fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Corbin Carroll +330 · 51

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.81× Wind 4 mph slight_out 84°F open

-3

↑

4 mph · slight_out

84°F

6:40p · peak

-4

↑

4 mph · slight_out

84°F

7:40p

-4

↑

5 mph · slight_out

82°F

8:40p

-4

↑

5 mph · slight_out

80°F

9:40p

-4

↑

5 mph · slight_out

77°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.89× 84°F, wind 4 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Mitch Keller · RHP 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll ✶ 51 C +330 HOT 39 0.237 91.6 9.4% 18.3%vs RHP 401 14.0% 20.0% 19.4% 27

2 Ketel Marte 46 D +350 · 67 0.198 90.9 8.6% 13.9%vs RHP 412 16.1% 22.2% 13.3% 31

3 Nolan Arenado 41 D +575 · 95 0.180 85.2 7.2% 19.6%vs RHP 391 13.4% 22.2% 12.3% 27

4 Gabriel Moreno 35 D +750 · 132 0.136 89.5 7.4% 14.3%vs RHP 399 8.2% 10.0% 5.8% 36

5 Adrian Del Castillo 34 D +500 COOL 139 0.129 89.0 7.1% 17.9%vs RHP 400 7.7% 0.0% 7.1% 11

6 Geraldo Perdomo 31 D +850 COOL 151 0.115 87.1 4.8% 9.5%vs RHP 382 7.7% 20.0% 8.8% 29

7 Ildemaro Vargas 30 D — COOL 160 0.135 87.4 4.8% 9.4%vs RHP 399 5.3% 0.0% 6.5% 25

vs Merrill Kelly · RHP 1.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.16 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 54 C +305 COOL 25 0.227 90.9 12.4% 23.9%vs RHP 392 15.1% 0.0% 14.0% 17

2 Bryan Reynolds 49 D +425 WARM 52 0.183 90.9 12.1% 18.2%vs RHP 409 12.7% 0.0% 10.6% 20

3 Ryan O'Hearn 47 D +475 · 62 0.181 89.7 10.0% 21.4%vs RHP 385 14.3% 9.1% 10.9% 21

4 Marcell Ozuna 40 D — COOL 104 0.125 89.3 10.2% 14.3%vs RHP 404 9.0% 0.0% 7.5% 13

5 Nick Gonzales 36 D +950 WARM 123 0.099 86.0 6.2% 13.2%vs RHP 397 8.1% 36.4% 9.3% 32

6 Jake Mangum 27 D — COOL 170 0.069 84.7 4.2% 9.5%vs RHP 408 3.2% 0.0% 6.7% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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