TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ TEX

Globe Life Field is live · 1.28×

SEA @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 2:35p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind 9 mph out 98°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+9 ↑

1:35p

+9 ↑

2:35p

+9 ↑

3:35p

+9 ↑

4:35p

+9 ↑

5:35p

conditions hold steady across the window · +9 FIT

Best of game Cole Young conv 17 · vs Rocker ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 29 · vs Kirby → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Kumar Rocker RHP · TEX

leak 91

1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cole Young +575 D ●●●○○

2 Dominic Canzone +370 C ●●○○○

3 Luke Raley +425 C ●●○○○

FADE George Kirby RHP · SEA

leak 31

0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson +400 C ●●●●○

2 Wyatt Langford +425 C ●●●●○

3 Jake Burger +475 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: 11.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Kirby Edge +400 0.239 · 92.0 · 8.8% 33.3% 24.9% F B O C 52

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Kirby +425 0.243 · 89.3 · 8.0% 33.3% 24.7% F B O C 50

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Rocker Edge +370 0.241 · 92.1 · 10.2% 12.5% 17.4% F B O C 53

· SEA Luke Raley vs Rocker Edge +425 0.220 · 90.8 · 10.9% 0.0% 25.5% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· TEX Jake Burger vs Kirby +475 0.188 · 89.9 · 8.6% 25.0% 19.7% F B O D 46

· SEA Cole Young vs Rocker Edge +575 0.143 · 88.5 · 6.3% 22.2% 11.3% F B O D 39

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Kirby Edge +625 0.150 · 87.7 · 6.5% 16.7% 10.0% F B O D 36

· SEA Julio Rodríguez COOL vs Rocker +475 0.165 · 89.9 · 8.1% 12.5% 9.4% F B O D 43

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Kirby +750 0.168 · 88.6 · 6.7% 11.1% 9.9% F B O D 38

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Rocker +525 0.158 · 91.2 · 7.7% 11.1% 9.6% F B O D 41

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Kirby Edge +525 0.162 · 92.3 · 9.2% 11.1% 8.2% F B O D 40

· SEA Colt Emerson COOL vs Rocker Edge +700 0.169 · 86.2 · 6.2% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 38

· SEA Mitch Garver HOT vs Rocker +525 0.127 · 90.6 · 7.8% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 38

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Rocker Edge +525 0.097 · 87.6 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 31

· TEX Elias Díaz COOL vs Kirby +850 0.176 · 85.9 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 36

· TEX Josh Smith vs Kirby Edge +950 0.063 · 87.0 · 6.4% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 27

· TEX Nicky Lopez COOL vs Kirby Edge +1000 0.043 · 85.1 · — 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 15

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 56.5% ← leak BRK 37.7% OFF 5.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Dominic Canzone L Edge

16.7% 16.1% 7.3% 13.9% C 53 +370

Luke Raley L Edge

19.0% 13.2% 10.0% 16.1% C 51 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Julio Rodríguez R

9.9% 7.9% 8.3% 9.1% D 43 +475

Randy Arozarena R

7.6% 8.9% 6.4% 7.8% D 41 +525

109

Cole Young L Edge

4.6% 8.8% 2.1% 5.2% D 39 +575

112

Colt Emerson L Edge

5.3% 5.9% 5.3% 5.5% D 38 +700

116

Mitch Garver R

11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% D 38 +525

152

Josh Naylor L Edge

4.3% 8.5% 1.9% 4.8% D 31 +525

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.5% usage) carries Rocker's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.2% ← leak BRK 39.3% OFF 7.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Joc Pederson L Edge

14.6% 10.7% 4.4% 11.3% C 52 +400

Wyatt Langford R

6.0% 13.0% 18.8% 9.3% C 50 +425

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jake Burger R

9.9% 11.8% 10.3% 10.6% D 46 +475

102

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

9.9% 18.2% 10.0% 12.1% D 40 +525

115

Ezequiel Duran R

7.8% 6.0% 0.0% 6.1% D 38 +750

122

Evan Carter L Edge

8.2% 5.3% 0.0% 6.1% D 36 +625

126

Elias Díaz R

4.7% 7.7% 5.0% 5.6% D 36 +850

169

Josh Smith L Edge

8.8% 5.6% 0.0% 6.0% D 27 +950

182

Nicky Lopez L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 15 +1000

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.2% usage) carries Kirby's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Canzone Young Pederson Langford Burger Carter

Legend

attack side — vs Rocker fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Joc Pederson +400 · 52

Wyatt Langford +425 · 50

Jake Burger +475 · 46

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 1:35p · roof retractable

Park 0.91× Wind 9 mph out 98°F retractable

↑

9 mph · out

98°F

1:35p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

98°F

2:35p

↑

9 mph · out

98°F

3:35p

↑

9 mph · out

98°F

4:35p

↑

9 mph · out

98°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.28× 98°F, wind 9 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kumar Rocker · RHP 1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 53 C +370 COOL 29 0.241 92.1 10.2% 28.6%vs RHP 400 17.3% 12.5% 17.4% 24

2 Luke Raley 51 C +425 WARM 37 0.220 90.8 10.9% 31.9%vs RHP 385 13.2% 0.0% 25.5% 13

3 Julio Rodríguez 43 D +475 COOL 83 0.165 89.9 8.1% 18.6%vs RHP 410 15.8% 12.5% 9.4% 25

4 Randy Arozarena 41 D +525 · 98 0.158 91.2 7.7% 23.8%vs RHP 394 11.7% 11.1% 9.6% 28

5 Cole Young 39 D +575 WARM 109 0.143 88.5 6.3% 18.6%vs RHP 388 11.9% 22.2% 11.3% 33

6 Colt Emerson 38 D +700 COOL 112 0.169 86.2 6.2% 29.4%vs RHP 369 10.5% 0.0% 12.3% 24

7 Mitch Garver 38 D +525 HOT 116 0.127 90.6 7.8% 21.1%vs RHP 390 10.7% 0.0% 9.6% 5

8 Josh Naylor 31 D +525 · 152 0.097 87.6 5.9% 12.5%vs RHP 390 7.1% 0.0% 7.8% 31

vs George Kirby · RHP 0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 52 C +400 · 35 0.239 92.0 8.8% 29.3%vs RHP 395 20.8% 33.3% 24.9% 20

2 Wyatt Langford 50 C +425 · 45 0.243 89.3 8.0% 22.2%vs RHP 401 18.5% 33.3% 24.7% 29

3 Jake Burger 46 D +475 WARM 66 0.188 89.9 8.6% 25.0%vs RHP 398 16.0% 25.0% 19.7% 22

4 Brandon Nimmo 40 D +525 COOL 102 0.162 92.3 9.2% 12.7%vs RHP 404 9.6% 11.1% 8.2% 25

5 Ezequiel Duran 38 D +750 WARM 115 0.168 88.6 6.7% 20.5%vs RHP 388 12.9% 11.1% 9.9% 23

6 Evan Carter 36 D +625 COOL 122 0.150 87.7 6.5% 15.1%vs RHP 374 9.8% 16.7% 10.0% 16

7 Elias Díaz 36 D +850 COOL 126 0.176 85.9 6.3% 0.0%vs RHP 399 14.3% 0.0% 7.5% 16

8 Josh Smith 27 D +950 WARM 169 0.063 87.0 6.4% 2.9%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 5

9 Nicky Lopez 15 D +1000 COOL 182 0.043 85.1 — 6.7%vs RHP 397 2.4% 0.0% 6.0% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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