TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ LAA

Angel Stadium is live · 1.34×

HOU @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 9:38p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 9 mph out 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

6:38p

+8 ↑

7:38p

+8 ↑

8:38p

+6 ↑

9:38p

+5 ↑

10:38p

best window is early — 6:38p at +9

Best of game Jo Adell conv 24 · vs Imai ⟷ Jeremy Peña conv 34 · vs Ureña → edge: Yordan Alvarez

ATTACK Tatsuya Imai RHP · HOU

leak 88

1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.76 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jo Adell +400 D ●●●●○

2 Jorge Soler +475 D ●●○○○

3 Vaughn Grissom +750 D ●●○○○

FADE Walbert Ureña RHP · LAA

leak 8

0.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jeremy Peña +700 D ●●●●●

2 Isaac Paredes +475 D ●●●○○

3 Cam Smith +625 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Yordan Alvarez: 18.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Yordan Alvarez ✶ vs Ureña Edge +220 0.321 · 94.6 · 10.1% 0.0% 24.9% F B O C 57

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Imai +320 0.220 · 90.4 · 13.7% 0.0% 15.8% F B O C 57

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs Imai +390 0.209 · 89.3 · 11.3% 0.0% 14.0% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· HOU Jeremy Peña HOT vs Ureña +700 0.161 · 88.2 · 5.4% 50.0% 17.0% F B O D 44

· LAA Jo Adell vs Imai +400 0.155 · 89.6 · 9.4% 33.3% 15.5% F B O D 49

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Ureña +475 0.172 · 86.5 · 5.7% 22.2% 12.9% F B O D 41

· LAA Jorge Soler vs Imai +475 0.164 · 88.8 · 10.7% 12.5% 16.9% F B O D 49

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Ureña +625 0.159 · 89.5 · 8.0% 16.7% 12.1% F B O D 43

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Imai +750 0.143 · 89.0 · 8.4% 11.1% 9.4% F B O D 42

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Ureña +425 0.215 · 89.4 · 7.2% 0.0% 14.0% F B O D 47

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Imai Edge +500 0.152 · 89.2 · 9.6% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 44

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Ureña +700 0.165 · 85.9 · 5.6% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 34

· HOU Yainer Diaz COOL vs Ureña +700 0.146 · 87.7 · 5.2% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 36

· LAA Nolan Schanuel COOL vs Imai Edge +700 0.110 · 87.1 · 4.4% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 33

· LAA Logan O'Hoppe COOL vs Imai +525 0.088 · 86.9 · 10.1% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 38

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs Imai — 0.132 · 87.4 · 8.7% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 40

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Ureña — 0.118 · 86.0 · 2.7% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.5% ← leak OFF 31.9% BRK 15.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

19.5% 9.7% 24.1% 18.8% C 57 +220

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Christian Walker R

8.8% 13.8% 10.0% 9.7% D 47 +425

Jeremy Peña R

3.5% 14.3% 5.4% 4.9% D 44 +700

Cam Smith R

9.3% 19.2% 16.4% 11.9% D 43 +625

Isaac Paredes R

7.8% 2.4% 3.8% 6.0% D 41 +475

124

Yainer Diaz R

7.5% 4.0% 2.0% 5.1% D 36 +700

136

Jose Altuve R

6.4% 0.0% 6.0% 5.8% D 34 +700

163

Christian Vazquez R

1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.5% usage) carries Ureña's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 48.0% BRK 45.4% OFF 6.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Mike Trout R

17.5% 27.8% 13.6% 18.9% C 57 +320

Zach Neto R

16.0% 8.9% 8.8% 12.8% C 53 +390

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jorge Soler R

13.4% 10.3% 0.0% 11.1% D 49 +475

Jo Adell R

8.4% 8.9% 5.4% 8.2% D 49 +400

Josh Lowe L Edge

12.5% 2.8% 8.3% 9.1% D 44 +500

Vaughn Grissom R

8.8% 7.5% 0.0% 7.1% D 42 +750

103

Oswald Peraza R

6.5% 7.5% 12.0% 7.6% D 40 —

117

Logan O'Hoppe R

10.5% 8.6% 12.5% 10.1% D 38 +525

146

Nolan Schanuel L Edge

2.6% 1.5% 0.0% 1.9% D 33 +700

Read the columns: no single family leads Imai's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 2 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alvarez Peña Smith Paredes Soler Adell

Legend

attack side — vs Imai fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 6:38p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 9 mph out 85°F open

↑

9 mph · out

85°F

6:38p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

82°F

7:38p

↑

8 mph · out

80°F

8:38p

↑

7 mph · out

78°F

9:38p

↑

6 mph · out

76°F

10:38p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.34× 85°F, wind 9 mph SW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Walbert Ureña · RHP 0.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez ✶ 57 C +220 · 16 0.321 94.6 10.1% 28.6%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 24.9% 25

2 Christian Walker 47 D +425 COOL 61 0.215 89.4 7.2% 27.0%vs RHP 388 18.2% 0.0% 14.0% 10

3 Jeremy Peña 44 D +700 HOT 79 0.161 88.2 5.4% 22.9%vs RHP 386 14.6% 50.0% 17.0% 26

4 Cam Smith 43 D +625 COOL 82 0.159 89.5 8.0% 19.6%vs RHP 411 12.8% 16.7% 12.1% 16

5 Isaac Paredes 41 D +475 COOL 94 0.172 86.5 5.7% 18.4%vs RHP 376 11.9% 22.2% 12.9% 32

6 Yainer Diaz 36 D +700 COOL 124 0.146 87.7 5.2% 22.2%vs RHP 391 9.1% 0.0% 9.0% 19

7 Jose Altuve 34 D +700 COOL 136 0.165 85.9 5.6% 23.3%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 28

8 Christian Vazquez 28 D — COOL 163 0.118 86.0 2.7% 13.8%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 9

vs Tatsuya Imai · RHP 1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.76 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 57 C +320 COOL 19 0.220 90.4 13.7% 26.4%vs RHP 409 16.7% 0.0% 15.8% 21

2 Zach Neto 53 C +390 COOL 30 0.209 89.3 11.3% 20.0%vs RHP 402 17.2% 0.0% 14.0% 22

3 Jorge Soler 49 D +475 WARM 49 0.164 88.8 10.7% 32.4%vs RHP 400 13.6% 12.5% 16.9% 15

4 Jo Adell 49 D +400 WARM 50 0.155 89.6 9.4% 11.1%vs RHP 410 13.1% 33.3% 15.5% 22

5 Josh Lowe 44 D +500 COOL 80 0.152 89.2 9.6% 17.0%vs RHP 396 10.9% 0.0% 10.4% 8

6 Vaughn Grissom 42 D +750 COOL 92 0.143 89.0 8.4% 18.2%vs RHP 389 10.0% 11.1% 9.4% 27

7 Oswald Peraza 40 D — WARM 103 0.132 87.4 8.7% 9.1%vs RHP 386 6.7% 0.0% 7.6% 8

8 Logan O'Hoppe 38 D +525 COOL 117 0.088 86.9 10.1% 12.1%vs RHP 408 3.5% 0.0% 7.9% 13

9 Nolan Schanuel 33 D +700 COOL 146 0.110 87.1 4.4% 10.0%vs RHP 372 6.9% 0.0% 8.1% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

14 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.