TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ NYM

Citi Field is live · 1.31×

ATL @ NYM

Citi Field · 7:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.93× Wind 10 mph out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

7:10p

+8 ↑

8:10p

+6 ↑

9:10p

+4 ↑

10:10p

+2 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +8

Best of game Brett Baty conv 20 · vs Pérez ⟷ Drake Baldwin conv 32 · vs Thornton → edge: Drake Baldwin

ATTACK Martín Pérez LHP · ATL

leak 79

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brett Baty — D ●●●○○

2 Marcus Semien +575 D ●●○○○

3 Francisco Alvarez +330 D ●●○○○

FADE Zac Thornton LHP · NYM

leak 25

0.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.20 · stingy — thin edge

1 Drake Baldwin +390 C ●●●●●

2 Ozzie Albies +475 D ●●●○○

3 Matt Olson +320 C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Drake Baldwin: 15.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 40.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Drake Baldwin ✶ vs Thornton +390 0.210 · 91.6 · 12.5% 40.0% 24.6% F B O C 57

· ATL Matt Olson vs Thornton +320 0.261 · 92.7 · 12.3% 20.0% 21.4% F B O C+ 60

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs Thornton Edge +475 0.177 · 86.8 · 6.6% 30.0% 12.9% F B O D 42

· NYM Brett Baty vs Pérez — 0.107 · 89.5 · 7.6% 28.6% 10.7% F B O D 38

· ATL Austin Riley HOT vs Thornton Edge +350 0.135 · 90.7 · 10.7% 20.0% 9.5% F B O D 42

· NYM Marcus Semien vs Pérez Edge +575 0.127 · 86.4 · 7.0% 16.7% 11.1% F B O D 38

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Thornton — 0.129 · 87.9 · 7.6% 20.0% 6.4% F B O D 36

· NYM Francisco Alvarez HOT vs Pérez Edge +330 0.189 · 90.3 · 10.5% 0.0% 21.1% F B O D 45

· NYM Francisco Lindor COOL vs Pérez Edge +400 0.159 · 91.4 · 7.6% 11.1% 8.5% F B O D 41

· NYM A.J. Ewing COOL vs Pérez — 0.146 · — · 6.7% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 34

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Pérez +750 0.131 · 89.1 · 7.1% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 37

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Pérez Edge +525 0.114 · 89.5 · 6.6% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 35

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Thornton — 0.129 · 90.2 · 8.1% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 36

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Thornton Edge +750 0.145 · 86.6 · 7.0% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 80.9% ← leak BRK 14.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Matt Olson L

15.7% 10.1% 13.5% C+ 60 +320

Drake Baldwin L

15.6% 20.0% 15.1% C 57 +390

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.9% 1.1% 4.3% D 42 +475

Austin Riley R Edge

13.0% 11.0% 11.0% D 42 +350

127

Mike Yastrzemski L

6.9% 4.5% 6.3% D 36 —

128

Dominic Smith L

6.4% 6.4% 5.6% D 36 —

148

Mauricio Dubon R Edge

3.4% 6.5% 4.7% D 32 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (80.9% usage) carries Thornton's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 61.6% ← leak OFF 30.3% BRK 8.1% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Francisco Alvarez R Edge

16.0% 16.7% 16.4% 16.2% D 45 +330

Francisco Lindor S Edge

9.6% 9.1% 5.0% 8.8% D 41 +400

113

Marcus Semien R Edge

10.1% 8.7% 2.5% 7.5% D 38 +575

114

Brett Baty L

7.7% 4.7% 13.6% 8.3% D 38 —

121

Carson Benge L

7.0% 6.2% 10.0% 7.6% D 37 +750

131

Bo Bichette R Edge

4.6% 0.0% 12.1% 6.5% D 35 +525

135

A.J. Ewing L

8.4% 0.0% 7.7% 6.7% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.6% usage) carries Pérez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Baldwin Albies Riley Smith Semien Baty

Legend

attack side — vs Pérez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Drake Baldwin +390 · 57

Matt Olson +320 · 60

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.93× Wind 10 mph out 77°F open

↑

10 mph · out

77°F

7:10p · peak

↑

10 mph · out

75°F

8:10p

↑

8 mph · out

74°F

9:10p

↑

6 mph · out

74°F

10:10p

↑

4 mph · out

73°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.31× 77°F, wind 10 mph S (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Zac Thornton · LHP 0.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.20 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 60 C+ +320 · 12 0.261 92.7 12.3% 19.6%vs LHP 409 21.0% 20.0% 21.4% 26

2 Drake Baldwin ✶ 57 C +390 · 18 0.210 91.6 12.5% 41.2%vs LHP 403 20.2% 40.0% 24.6% 32

3 Ozzie Albies 42 D +475 COOL 88 0.177 86.8 6.6% 14.6%vs LHP 385 14.3% 30.0% 12.9% 33

4 Austin Riley 42 D +350 HOT 91 0.135 90.7 10.7% 12.5%vs LHP 405 8.7% 20.0% 9.5% 25

5 Mike Yastrzemski 36 D — COOL 127 0.129 90.2 8.1% 0.0%vs LHP 387 7.6% 0.0% 6.7% 7

6 Dominic Smith 36 D — COOL 128 0.129 87.9 7.6% 0.0%vs LHP 390 7.7% 20.0% 6.4% 17

7 Mauricio Dubon 32 D +750 WARM 148 0.145 86.6 7.0% 12.9%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 35

vs Martín Pérez · LHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Alvarez 45 D +330 HOT 72 0.189 90.3 10.5% 25.0%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 21.1% 10

2 Francisco Lindor 41 D +400 COOL 99 0.159 91.4 7.6% 9.1%vs LHP 399 9.5% 11.1% 8.5% 25

3 Marcus Semien 38 D +575 WARM 113 0.127 86.4 7.0% 5.0%vs LHP 387 10.7% 16.7% 11.1% 16

4 Brett Baty 38 D — · 114 0.107 89.5 7.6% 0.0%vs LHP 395 6.2% 28.6% 10.7% 14

5 Carson Benge 37 D +750 COOL 121 0.131 89.1 7.1% 21.4%vs LHP 399 8.9% 0.0% 8.9% 21

6 Bo Bichette 35 D +525 COOL 131 0.114 89.5 6.6% 20.0%vs LHP 385 8.9% 0.0% 8.2% 26

7 A.J. Ewing 34 D — COOL 135 0.146 — 6.7% 18.2%vs LHP — 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.