TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ CIN

Great American Ball Park is live · 1.48×

CLE @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 7:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.23× Wind 5 mph slight_out 87°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

7:10p

+9 ↑

8:10p

+10 ↑

9:10p

+10 ↑

10:10p

+9 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +10

Best of game Elly De La Cruz conv 31 · vs Cecconi ⟷ Travis Bazzana conv 25 · vs Burns → edge: Elly De La Cruz

ATTACK Slade Cecconi RHP · CLE

leak 68

1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.35 · leakiest side of this game

1 Elly De La Cruz +290 C+ ●●●●●

2 Nathaniel Lowe +390 C+ ●●●●●

3 Sal Stewart +320 C+ ●●●●○

FADE Chase Burns RHP · CIN

leak 5

1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 Travis Bazzana +525 C ●●●●○

2 Rhys Hoskins — C ●●●○○

3 Kyle Manzardo +425 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Elly De La Cruz: 13.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Elly De La Cruz ✶ vs Cecconi Edge +290 0.222 · 94.2 · 11.1% 33.3% 29.6% F B O C+ 67

· CIN Nathaniel Lowe vs Cecconi Edge +390 0.223 · 89.0 · 9.4% 28.6% 33.9% F B O C+ 63

· CIN Sal Stewart COOL vs Cecconi +320 0.217 · 90.4 · 10.6% 25.0% 29.0% F B O C+ 64

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Burns Edge +525 0.162 · 88.0 · 6.3% 27.3% 21.9% F B O C 50

· CLE Rhys Hoskins vs Burns — 0.195 · 88.6 · 10.2% 14.3% 24.1% F B O C 56

· CIN Tyler Stephenson HOT vs Cecconi +425 0.148 · 90.9 · 9.8% 14.3% 21.6% F B O C 53

· CLE Kyle Manzardo vs Burns Edge +425 0.150 · 89.4 · 9.7% 14.3% 19.3% F B O C 51

· CIN Eugenio Suarez HOT vs Cecconi +305 0.198 · 88.4 · 9.3% 0.0% 31.8% F B O C 54

· CIN Jj Bleday vs Cecconi Edge +290 0.238 · 88.8 · 9.1% 0.0% 20.0% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Burns Edge +575 0.131 · 86.5 · 5.0% 9.1% 10.8% F B O D 41

· CLE Angel Martinez COOL vs Burns Edge +475 0.196 · 87.6 · 8.0% 0.0% 18.9% F B O D 47

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Burns Edge +390 0.166 · 91.1 · 7.5% 0.0% 15.4% F B O D 47

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Burns Edge +390 0.172 · 89.5 · 7.2% 0.0% 13.9% F B O D 44

· CIN Tj Friedl COOL vs Cecconi Edge — 0.085 · 87.4 · 4.6% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 39

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Burns Edge +950 0.058 · 83.5 · 1.6% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.1% ← leak BRK 37.4% OFF 5.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Rhys Hoskins R

10.5% 16.2% 13.3% 12.2% C 56 —

Kyle Manzardo L Edge

12.1% 11.1% 8.1% 11.1% C 51 +425

Travis Bazzana L Edge

4.5% 4.0% 3.7% 4.3% C 50 +525

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Angel Martinez S Edge

6.0% 15.2% 3.7% 7.6% D 47 +475

Chase Delauter L Edge

9.3% 5.6% 1.7% 6.8% D 47 +390

Jose Ramirez L Edge

— — — — D 44 +390

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.5% 3.7% 1.2% 3.0% D 41 +575

168

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 27 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.1% usage) carries Burns's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 72.3% ← leak BRK 25.4% OFF 2.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 6

Elly De La Cruz L Edge

18.8% 10.6% 3.8% 13.7% C+ 67 +290

Sal Stewart R

16.8% 9.7% 10.3% 13.8% C+ 64 +320

Nathaniel Lowe L Edge

10.2% 13.6% 11.8% 11.0% C+ 63 +390

Jj Bleday L Edge

11.6% 9.1% 6.0% 9.7% C 57 +290

Eugenio Suarez R

12.2% 5.9% 7.7% 10.5% C 54 +305

Tyler Stephenson R

14.3% 7.5% 6.2% 11.6% C 53 +425

Long shots · 1 — below the fade line

110

Tj Friedl L Edge

3.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2.6% D 39 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (72.3% usage) carries Cecconi's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Hoskins Manzardo Bazzana Cruz Stewart Lowe Suarez Stephenson

Legend

attack side — vs Cecconi fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Elly De La Cruz +290 · 67

Nathaniel Lowe +390 · 63

Sal Stewart +320 · 64

Travis Bazzana +525 · 50

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.23× Wind 5 mph slight_out 87°F open

+10

↑

5 mph · slight_out

87°F

7:10p · peak

↑

4 mph · slight_out

86°F

8:10p

+10

↑

5 mph · slight_out

83°F

9:10p

+10

↑

5 mph · slight_out

80°F

10:10p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

77°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.48× 87°F, wind 5 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Chase Burns · RHP 1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins 56 C — WARM 20 0.195 88.6 10.2% 25.9%vs RHP 386 13.3% 14.3% 24.1% 13

2 Kyle Manzardo 51 C +425 WARM 40 0.150 89.4 9.7% 20.0%vs RHP 385 10.9% 14.3% 19.3% 14

3 Travis Bazzana 50 C +525 WARM 46 0.162 88.0 6.3% 20.9%vs RHP 396 12.9% 27.3% 21.9% 27

4 Angel Martinez 47 D +475 COOL 57 0.196 87.6 8.0% 27.3%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 9

5 Chase Delauter 47 D +390 · 58 0.166 91.1 7.5% 23.4%vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 15.4% 27

6 Jose Ramirez 44 D +390 COOL 78 0.172 89.5 7.2% 12.5%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 15

7 Brayan Rocchio 41 D +575 · 97 0.131 86.5 5.0% 14.0%vs RHP 386 8.1% 9.1% 10.8% 33

8 Steven Kwan 27 D +950 COOL 168 0.058 83.5 1.6% 1.9%vs RHP 381 1.1% 0.0% 8.8% 31

vs Slade Cecconi · RHP 1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.35 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz ✶ 67 C+ +290 · 5 0.222 94.2 11.1% 18.8%vs RHP 398 18.1% 33.3% 29.6% 29

2 Sal Stewart 64 C+ +320 COOL 6 0.217 90.4 10.6% 21.7%vs RHP 392 13.6% 25.0% 29.0% 27

3 Nathaniel Lowe 63 C+ +390 · 8 0.223 89.0 9.4% 30.8%vs RHP 395 16.9% 28.6% 33.9% 21

4 Jj Bleday 57 C +290 · 17 0.238 88.8 9.1% 24.0%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 23

5 Eugenio Suarez 54 C +305 HOT 24 0.198 88.4 9.3% 27.8%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 31.8% 19

6 Tyler Stephenson 53 C +425 HOT 28 0.148 90.9 9.8% 19.1%vs RHP 395 7.5% 14.3% 21.6% 15

7 Tj Friedl 39 D — COOL 110 0.085 87.4 4.6% 8.3%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 9

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.