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Nationals Park is live · 1.32×

TOR @ WSH

Nationals Park · 6:45p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.10× Wind 4 mph slight_out 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

6:45p

+6 ↑

7:45p

+7 ↑

8:45p

+8 ↑

9:45p

+8 ↑

10:45p

conditions build late — the 9:45p window peaks +8

Best of game Cj Abrams conv 46 · vs Scherzer ⟷ Brandon Valenzuela conv 21 · vs Proxy → edge: Cj Abrams

ATTACK Max Scherzer RHP · TOR

leak 99

3.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.80 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cj Abrams +305 B ●●●●●

2 Dylan Crews +500 C ●●●●●

3 James Wood +220 B ●●●●○

FADE WSH Bullpen Proxy · WSH

leak 70

1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Valenzuela — C ●●●○○

2 George Springer +500 C ●●●○○

3 Kazuma Okamoto +390 C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cj Abrams: Match 41.5% · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH Cj Abrams ✶ vs Scherzer Edge +305 0.263 · 89.9 · 11.3% 50.0% 41.5% F B O B 73

· WSH Dylan Crews HOT vs Scherzer +500 0.153 · 90.7 · 10.4% 40.0% 22.2% F B O C 59

· WSH James Wood vs Scherzer Edge +220 0.273 · 95.2 · 15.7% 11.1% 43.4% F B O B 79

· TOR Brandon Valenzuela HOT vs Proxy — 0.169 · 88.5 · 8.7% 20.0% 21.5% F B O C 53

· TOR George Springer COOL vs Proxy +500 0.167 · 88.5 · 7.8% 22.2% 15.2% F B O C 52

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Proxy +390 0.221 · 90.9 · 13.9% 10.0% 17.6% F B O C+ 66

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Scherzer Edge +500 0.163 · 88.1 · 9.4% 14.3% 12.9% F B O C 54

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Scherzer +850 0.148 · 88.6 · 8.6% 12.5% 13.3% F B O C 51

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Scherzer Edge +500 0.188 · 88.9 · 7.6% 0.0% 14.2% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· TOR Daulton Varsho vs Proxy +575 0.136 · 86.2 · 6.5% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 43

· TOR Nathan Lukes COOL vs Proxy +950 0.116 · 86.3 · 1.0% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 35

· TOR Andres Gimenez vs Proxy — 0.123 · 86.1 · 4.0% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 37

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Scherzer Edge — 0.045 · 84.6 · 2.1% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 31

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Proxy +700 0.127 · 85.1 · 2.5% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for WSH Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 48.2% BRK 35.0% OFF 15.9% Overall Score

Prime targets · 2

James Wood L Edge

21.8% 26.0% 11.8% 21.7% B 79 +220

Cj Abrams L Edge

12.6% 8.1% 11.9% 11.0% B 73 +305

Neutral · 4

Dylan Crews R

6.7% 23.1% 5.9% 9.5% C 59 +500

Daylen Lile L Edge

8.4% 10.6% 4.1% 8.1% C 54 +500

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

7.8% 1.9% 2.8% 5.2% C 53 +500

Jacob Young R

8.8% 4.3% 3.6% 6.8% C 51 +850

Long shots · 1 — below the fade line

154

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 31 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Scherzer's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Valenzuela Springer Wood Abrams Crews Lile

Legend

attack side — vs Scherzer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Cj Abrams +305 · 73

Dylan Crews +500 · 59

Brandon Valenzuela — · 53

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 1.10× Wind 4 mph slight_out 85°F open

↑

4 mph · slight_out

86°F

6:45p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

84°F

7:45p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

83°F

8:45p

↑

4 mph · out

81°F

9:45p · peak

↑

4 mph · out

80°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.32× 85°F, wind 4 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs WSH Bullpen Proxy 1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 66 C+ +390 COOL 9 0.221 90.9 13.9% 22.5% 397 19.8% 10.0% 17.6% 22

2 Brandon Valenzuela 53 C — HOT 48 0.169 88.5 8.7% 17.8% 394 10.8% 20.0% 21.5% 9

3 George Springer 52 C +500 COOL 55 0.167 88.5 7.8% 14.1% 389 11.4% 22.2% 15.2% 32

4 Daulton Varsho 43 D +575 WARM 108 0.136 86.2 6.5% 8.3% 386 6.7% 0.0% 8.9% 28

5 Andres Gimenez 37 D — WARM 142 0.123 86.1 4.0% 9.2% 391 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 19

6 Ernie Clement 37 D +700 COOL 143 0.127 85.1 2.5% 6.1% 375 8.1% 0.0% 8.3% 34

7 Nathan Lukes 35 D +950 COOL 150 0.116 86.3 1.0% 10.0% 378 6.1% 0.0% 8.9% 24

vs Max Scherzer · RHP 3.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.80 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood 79 B +220 WARM 1 0.273 95.2 15.7% 36.4%vs RHP 413 28.7% 11.1% 43.4% 24

2 Cj Abrams ✶ 73 B +305 WARM 2 0.263 89.9 11.3% 31.3%vs RHP 396 42.9% 50.0% 41.5% 31

3 Dylan Crews 59 C +500 HOT 14 0.153 90.7 10.4% 14.3%vs RHP 405 19.0% 40.0% 22.2% 19

4 Daylen Lile 54 C +500 WARM 27 0.163 88.1 9.4% 11.3%vs RHP 403 8.6% 14.3% 12.9% 23

5 Keibert Ruiz 53 C +500 COOL 33 0.188 88.9 7.6% 8.2%vs RHP 377 11.4% 0.0% 14.2% 17

6 Jacob Young 51 C +850 COOL 44 0.148 88.6 8.6% 17.5%vs RHP 396 8.5% 12.5% 13.3% 23

7 Nasim Nunez 31 D — COOL 154 0.045 84.6 2.1% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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