TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ CWS

Suppressed air · 0.94×

NYY @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Ben Rice conv 28 · vs Schultz ⟷ Munetaka Murakami conv 16 · vs Fried → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Noah Schultz LHP · CWS

leak 13

1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ben Rice +265 B ●●●●○

2 Paul Goldschmidt +390 C ●●●○○

3 Trent Grisham +390 D ●●○○○

FADE Max Fried LHP · NYY

leak 3

0.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.12 · stingy — thin edge

1 Munetaka Murakami +350 C ●●○○○

2 Colson Montgomery +390 D ●●○○○

3 Miguel Vargas +400 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 15.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 27.3% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Schultz +265 0.304 · 92.3 · 12.6% 27.3% 28.3% F B O B 70

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Schultz Edge +390 0.228 · 86.5 · 10.6% 12.5% 21.3% F B O C 55

· CWS Munetaka Murakami vs Fried +350 0.286 · 94.1 · 7.8% 11.1% 20.7% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Fried +390 0.242 · 89.0 · 6.3% 12.5% 15.2% F B O D 47

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Schultz +390 0.177 · 90.8 · 10.2% 18.2% 8.8% F B O D 49

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Fried Edge +400 0.237 · 90.5 · 6.6% 11.1% 12.9% F B O D 46

· NYY Austin Wells COOL vs Schultz — 0.112 · 88.9 · 8.3% 12.5% 11.2% F B O D 41

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Fried Edge — 0.105 · 88.0 · 3.6% 12.5% 5.9% F B O D 27

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Fried +950 0.130 · 87.6 · 4.4% 11.1% 4.4% F B O D 30

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs Schultz Edge +700 0.140 · 83.8 · 5.9% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 35

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Fried +750 0.177 · 88.8 · 5.2% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 36

· CWS Edgar Quero vs Fried Edge — 0.045 · 91.0 · 2.8% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 24

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Schultz — 0.163 · 91.1 · 10.3% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 46

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Fried +950 0.164 · 87.5 · 4.0% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 31

· CWS Luisangel Acuna COOL vs Fried Edge — 0.038 · 89.2 · 3.4% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 68.3% ← leak BRK 21.4% OFF 10.4% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Ben Rice L

19.1% 11.2% 13.0% 15.7% B 70 +265

Neutral · 1

Paul Goldschmidt R Edge

15.0% 5.1% 10.7% 11.3% C 55 +390

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Trent Grisham L

12.0% 9.5% 5.6% 10.6% D 49 +390

Ryan Mcmahon L

13.8% 5.0% 9.5% 10.8% D 46 —

Austin Wells L

8.8% 6.9% 0.0% 7.0% D 41 —

130

Jose Caballero R Edge

— — — — D 35 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (68.3% usage) carries Schultz's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 62.2% ← leak BRK 23.5% OFF 13.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Munetaka Murakami L

22.5% 16.7% 17.6% 19.7% C 51 +350

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Colson Montgomery L

13.1% 12.3% 14.7% 13.1% D 47 +390

Miguel Vargas R Edge

16.1% 11.8% 12.9% 14.5% D 46 +400

125

Andrew Benintendi L

12.4% 5.5% 6.1% 9.1% D 36 +750

153

Tristan Peters L

6.5% 5.7% 0.0% 5.3% D 31 +950

159

Sam Antonacci L

8.4% 5.9% 0.0% 6.6% D 30 +950

172

Chase Meidroth R Edge

3.8% 6.8% 2.2% 4.3% D 27 —

179

Edgar Quero S Edge

2.5% 0.0% 4.0% 2.5% D 24 —

180

Luisangel Acuna R Edge

4.2% 5.7% 0.0% 4.0% D 21 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (62.2% usage) carries Fried's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Goldschmidt Grisham Murakami Montgomery

Legend

attack side — vs Schultz fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Ben Rice +265 · 70

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:40p · roof unknown

Park 0.94× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Suppress · Combined 0.94× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Noah Schultz · LHP 1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 70 B +265 WARM 3 0.304 92.3 12.6% 42.1%vs LHP 390 27.6% 27.3% 28.3% 24

2 Paul Goldschmidt 55 C +390 COOL 22 0.228 86.5 10.6% 34.6%vs LHP 390 17.7% 12.5% 21.3% 17

3 Trent Grisham 49 D +390 · 53 0.177 90.8 10.2% 11.8%vs LHP 390 11.2% 18.2% 8.8% 29

4 Ryan Mcmahon 46 D — COOL 69 0.163 91.1 10.3% 0.0%vs LHP 384 20.0% 0.0% 6.5% 16

5 Austin Wells 41 D — COOL 96 0.112 88.9 8.3% 13.3%vs LHP 386 10.0% 12.5% 11.2% 10

6 Jose Caballero 35 D +700 COOL 130 0.140 83.8 5.9% 28.6%vs LHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 18

vs Max Fried · LHP 0.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.12 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami 51 C +350 · 38 0.286 94.1 7.8% 26.7%vs LHP 407 16.0% 11.1% 20.7% 22

2 Colson Montgomery 47 D +390 COOL 59 0.242 89.0 6.3% 32.0%vs LHP 398 24.4% 12.5% 15.2% 17

3 Miguel Vargas 46 D +400 COOL 68 0.237 90.5 6.6% 27.3%vs LHP 389 20.7% 11.1% 12.9% 28

4 Andrew Benintendi 36 D +750 COOL 125 0.177 88.8 5.2% 12.8% 389 13.0% 0.0% 7.5% 19

5 Tristan Peters 31 D +950 WARM 153 0.164 87.5 4.0% 7.7% 377 8.0% 0.0% 6.4% 25

6 Sam Antonacci 30 D +950 COOL 159 0.130 87.6 4.4% 0.0%vs LHP 397 10.0% 11.1% 4.4% 27

7 Chase Meidroth 27 D — · 172 0.105 88.0 3.6% 11.8%vs LHP 377 6.9% 12.5% 5.9% 21

8 Edgar Quero 24 D — WARM 179 0.045 91.0 2.8% 10.5%vs LHP 389 4.4% 0.0% 7.2% 6

9 Luisangel Acuna 21 D — COOL 180 0.038 89.2 3.4% 0.0%vs LHP 416 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 6

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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