2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Rafael Devers 8 HRs · 2 Heriberto Hernández 5 HRs · 3 Cal Raleigh 5 HRs · 4 Tristan Peters 5 HRs · 5 Colson Montgomery 4 HRs · 6 Carter Jensen 4 HRs · 7 Daylen Lile 4 HRs · 8 Francisco Lindor 4 HRs · 9 Ezequiel Duran 4 HRs · 10 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 11 Jonathan Aranda 4 HRs · 12 Brooks Lee 4 HRs 1 Rafael Devers 8 HRs · 2 Heriberto Hernández 5 HRs · 3 Cal Raleigh 5 HRs · 4 Tristan Peters 5 HRs · 5 Colson Montgomery 4 HRs · 6 Carter Jensen 4 HRs · 7 Daylen Lile 4 HRs · 8 Francisco Lindor 4 HRs · 9 Ezequiel Duran 4 HRs · 10 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 11 Jonathan Aranda 4 HRs · 12 Brooks Lee 4 HRs
Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
15 days available
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_14 - 2026-09-05T14:00:39-04:00
Pitch Arsenal cache is missing
missing cache
latest available slate: 2026-09-06
Pitch-type matchup edges are unavailable until the missing Arsenal cache file is refreshed.
Batting missing cache
data/cache/arsenal_batting_2026.csv
Pitching missing cache
data/cache/arsenal_pitching_2026.csv
30
Arsenal Edges
3
Edges That Hit HR
10%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-09-05
30 signals · 3 connected (HR hit)
Hit? Signal ? Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. Batter Pitcher Pitch ? The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family:

Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter
Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper
Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter
Bat RV/100 ? Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type.

+15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher
Pit RV/100 ? Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type.

+10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled
Usage% ? How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. Bat HRs ? Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. Pit HRs ? Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. Rank ? The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score).
· 6.9 Angel Martinez Framber Valdez Curveball +8.6 +0.5 29% 4 4 #132
· 5.7 Dominic Canzone Jeffrey Springs Fastball +1.8 +1.6 44% 10 13 #11
· 5.7 Braden Montgomery Taj Bradley Fastball +2.6 -0.5 47% 2 10 #129
· 5.6 Jac Caglianone Max Scherzer Slider +5.3 +4.1 18% 7 7 #18
· 5.5 Juan Soto Anthony Molina Fastball +2.4 -0.6 47% 8 1 #16
· 5.5 Jackson Chourio Andrew Abbott Fastball +2.1 +0.3 45% 8 11 #17
· 5.5 Jake Bauers Andrew Abbott Fastball +2.1 +0.3 45% 6 11 #19
💥 5.4 Munetaka Murakami Taj Bradley Fastball +2.1 -0.5 47% 13 10 #3
· 5.3 Ben Rice Robbie Ray Fastball +4.3 +0.2 33% 17 13 #27
· 5.3 J.P. Crawford Jeffrey Springs Fastball +0.8 +1.6 44% 4 13 #133
· 5.2 Jac Caglianone Max Scherzer Fastball +1.6 -0.6 47% 7 3 #18
· 5.2 Josh Naylor Jeffrey Springs Fastball +0.7 +1.6 44% 5 13 #161
· 5.1 Randy Arozarena Jeffrey Springs Fastball +0.4 +1.6 44% 6 13 #23
· 5.1 Dalton Rushing Cade Cavalli Knuckle Curve +6.0 -1.0 27% 0 2 #62
· 5.1 Mookie Betts Cade Cavalli Knuckle Curve +6.1 -1.0 27% 1 2 #108
· 5.0 Tristan Peters Taj Bradley Fastball +1.0 -0.5 47% 5 10 #51
· 5.0 Julio Rodríguez Jeffrey Springs Fastball +0.1 +1.6 44% 6 13 #55
· 5.0 Nick Loftin Max Scherzer Fastball +1.0 -0.6 47% 4 3 #86
· 5.0 George Springer Seth Lugo Curveball +6.3 +1.8 15% 2 4 #87
· 5.0 Jonah Heim George Kirby Splitter +7.9 +3.6 2% 3 1 #106
· 5.0 Chase Delauter Framber Valdez Sinker +1.3 -0.3 45% 1 5 #156
· 5.0 Sam Antonacci Taj Bradley Fastball +1.2 -0.5 47% 6 10 #163
· 5.0 Carson Benge Anthony Molina Fastball +1.3 -0.6 47% 6 1 #165
· 4.9 Michael Massey Max Scherzer Slider +3.7 +4.1 18% 3 7 #89
· 4.9 Yandy Diaz Jacob deGrom Slider +4.5 -2.3 36% 4 2 #146
💥 4.8 Kyle Schwarber Martin Perez Sinker +3.4 -0.8 35% 8 2 #1
💥 4.8 Max Muncy Cade Cavalli Fastball +2.7 +0.7 33% 16 8 #26
· 4.8 Zack Gelof George Kirby Splitter +7.5 +3.6 2% 1 1 #38
· 4.8 Bobby Witt Max Scherzer Fastball +0.7 -0.6 47% 3 3 #61
· 4.8 Cole Young Jeffrey Springs Fastball -0.2 +1.6 44% 6 13 #111
Six home runs to freedom

See every pitch-type edge today

Sign up to see the full arsenal breakdown — which batters crush which pitches, and which pitchers are getting shelled.

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.
24 more waiting in the on-deck circle
What is Run Value (RV)? Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game. Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense). RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.

How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.

Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)

Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
THR 3.3.169 · build 673

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.

Yesterday's board graded name-by-name — hits and misses — plus tonight's ranked board (scores and matchups; batter names are Pro), free in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.