Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-08-26T11:00:35-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-26
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | William Contreras | Robert Stock | Cutter | +5.9 | +1.1 | 31% | 6 | 1 | #127 | |
| · | Chase Delauter | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +1.0 | +0.7 | 54% | 8 | 6 | #144 | |
| · | Dillon Dingler | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +1.1 | +0.7 | 53% | 7 | 12 | #34 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Bryan Woo | Fastball | +3.6 | -1.3 | 47% | 12 | 5 | #26 | |
| · | Jake Burger | Sean Burke | Knuckle Curve | +8.2 | +0.5 | 20% | 1 | 2 | #27 | |
| · | Hao-Yu Lee | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +0.9 | +0.7 | 53% | 3 | 12 | #87 | |
| · | Braden Montgomery | MacKenzie Gore | Fastball | +3.7 | -1.1 | 46% | 2 | 6 | #118 | |
| · | Kevin Mcgonigle | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +0.8 | +0.7 | 53% | 5 | 12 | #143 | |
| · | Travis Bazzana | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.5 | +0.7 | 54% | 5 | 6 | #168 | |
| · | Jose Ramirez | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.6 | +0.7 | 54% | 6 | 6 | #177 | |
| · | Spencer Torkelson | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +0.4 | +0.7 | 53% | 8 | 12 | #60 | |
| · | Manny Machado | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +1.7 | +0.2 | 48% | 12 | 6 | #92 | |
| · | Brayan Rocchio | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.1 | +0.7 | 54% | 6 | 6 | #188 | |
| · | Steven Kwan | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.2 | +0.7 | 54% | 1 | 6 | #213 | |
| · | Munetaka Murakami | MacKenzie Gore | Fastball | +2.8 | -1.1 | 46% | 13 | 6 | #2 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Tanner Gordon | Fastball | +1.9 | +1.0 | 43% | 4 | 6 | #11 | |
| · | Drake Baldwin | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +1.4 | +1.7 | 42% | 7 | 12 | #23 | |
| · | Jacob Young | Tanner Gordon | Fastball | +1.7 | +1.0 | 43% | 6 | 6 | #61 | |
| · | Michael Harris | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +1.0 | +1.7 | 42% | 4 | 12 | #41 | |
| · | Gleyber Torres | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | -0.4 | +0.7 | 53% | 2 | 12 | #139 | |
| · | Patrick Bailey | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | -0.8 | +0.7 | 54% | 3 | 6 | #162 | |
| · | Zach Mckinstry | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | -0.4 | +0.7 | 53% | 2 | 12 | #197 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Bryan Woo | Fastball | +2.0 | -1.3 | 47% | 11 | 5 | #4 | |
| · | Brice Turang | Robert Stock | Cutter | +3.9 | +1.1 | 31% | 3 | 1 | #97 | |
| · | Matt Olson | Roki Sasaki | Fastball | +0.7 | +1.7 | 42% | 13 | 12 | #3 | |
| · | Angel Martinez | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | -1.1 | +0.7 | 54% | 3 | 6 | #141 | |
| · | Max Clark | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | -0.9 | +0.7 | 53% | 0 | 12 | #158 | |
| · | Jake Cronenworth | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +0.4 | +0.2 | 48% | 2 | 6 | #207 | |
| · | Max Muncy | AJ Smith-Shawver | Fastball | +2.9 | -1.9 | 44% | 15 | 0 | #5 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Peter Lambert | Fastball | +4.1 | -0.1 | 32% | 16 | 8 | #10 |
🔥 Batter Arsenal Preview
Yordan Alvarez
+47.3 RV
Kyle Schwarber
+37.2 RV
Pete Crow-Armstrong
+35.7 RV
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+42.8 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+27.6 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+25.2 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.