Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-08-04T17:00:40-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-04
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | John Rave | Joe Ryan | Fastball | +13.7 | -0.1 | 45% | 1 | 10 | #54 | |
| · | Kyle Isbel | Joe Ryan | Knuckle Curve | +14.2 | -1.5 | 11% | 0 | 1 | #198 | |
| · | Pete Alonso | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +1.7 | +2.3 | 54% | 10 | 6 | #15 | |
| · | Kyle Karros | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +2.9 | +0.1 | 53% | 5 | 7 | #122 | |
| · | Ildemaro Vargas | Randy Vasquez | Cutter | +7.0 | +2.5 | 24% | 1 | 6 | #197 | |
| · | Mickey Moniak | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +2.0 | +0.1 | 53% | 6 | 7 | #16 | |
| · | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.3 | +2.3 | 54% | 1 | 6 | #39 | |
| · | Jackson Holliday | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.0 | +2.3 | 54% | 2 | 6 | #137 | |
| · | Colton Cowser | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | -0.5 | +2.3 | 54% | 2 | 6 | #107 | |
| · | Tj Rumfield | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +1.5 | +0.1 | 53% | 4 | 7 | #169 | |
| · | John Rave | Joe Ryan | Sweeper | +10.1 | -0.2 | 14% | 1 | 3 | #54 | |
| · | Dylan Beavers | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | -0.7 | +2.3 | 54% | 2 | 6 | #166 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Hunter Dobbins | Fastball | +5.6 | +0.5 | 32% | 15 | 0 | #4 | |
| · | Jeremy Peña | Trey Yesavage | Splitter | +6.7 | -0.3 | 29% | 1 | 2 | #25 | |
| · | Coby Mayo | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | -0.8 | +2.3 | 54% | 3 | 6 | #26 | |
| · | Ezequiel Duran | Blade Tidwell | Sweeper | +3.4 | +0.6 | 41% | 4 | 0 | #78 | |
| · | Willi Castro | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +1.0 | +0.1 | 53% | 6 | 7 | #100 | |
| · | Jonah Heim | Brady Singer | Sinker | +1.5 | +0.6 | 48% | 2 | 10 | #53 | |
| · | Cole Carrigg | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +0.7 | +0.1 | 53% | 2 | 7 | #102 | |
| · | Jake Mccarthy | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +0.7 | +0.1 | 53% | 5 | 7 | #139 | |
| · | Shohei Ohtani | Javier Assad | Sinker | +4.1 | -1.1 | 41% | 7 | 2 | #10 | |
| · | Junior Caminero | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +1.8 | -2.7 | 57% | 7 | 0 | #29 | |
| · | Yordan Alvarez | Trey Yesavage | Fastball | +2.8 | -1.0 | 46% | 12 | 5 | #1 | |
| · | Joc Pederson | Blade Tidwell | Sweeper | +2.7 | +0.6 | 41% | 3 | 0 | #19 | |
| · | Ryan Jeffers | Randy Dobnak | Sinker | +4.7 | -1.8 | 40% | 3 | 1 | #45 | |
| · | Gunnar Henderson | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | -1.6 | +2.3 | 54% | 3 | 6 | #63 | |
| · | Michael Conforto | Tarik Skubal | Sinker | +7.6 | -0.2 | 20% | 2 | 0 | #65 | |
| · | Justin Crawford | Carson Palmquist | Sweeper | +2.8 | -0.1 | 42% | 1 | 0 | #209 | |
| · | Hunter Goodman | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | -0.1 | +0.1 | 53% | 9 | 7 | #3 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Carson Palmquist | Fastball | +3.5 | +6.4 | 15% | 11 | 1 | #14 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+35.2 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+24.8 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.6 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.