Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
initial - 2026-07-29T06:15:35-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-29
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Lane Thomas | Joe Ryan | Knuckle Curve | +16.4 | -1.8 | 11% | 1 | 1 | #98 | |
| · | Yordan Alvarez | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +2.4 | +2.7 | 54% | 11 | 6 | #8 | |
| · | Jeremy Peña | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +2.2 | +2.7 | 54% | 2 | 6 | #55 | |
| · | Jose Altuve | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +2.2 | +2.7 | 54% | 5 | 6 | #128 | |
| · | Yainer Diaz | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +1.1 | +2.7 | 54% | 3 | 6 | #122 | |
| · | Cam Smith | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.9 | +2.7 | 54% | 4 | 6 | #64 | |
| · | Christian Walker | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.2 | +2.7 | 54% | 6 | 6 | #39 | |
| · | Isaac Paredes | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.2 | +2.7 | 54% | 5 | 6 | #79 | |
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Joey Cantillo | Cutter | +9.8 | +3.0 | 6% | 3 | 2 | #17 | |
| · | Drake Baldwin | Christian Scott | Fastball | +2.0 | +0.4 | 49% | 7 | 5 | #34 | |
| · | Nico Hoerner | Dustin May | Sweeper | +8.0 | +1.1 | 19% | 2 | 1 | #239 | |
| · | Manny Machado | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +1.6 | -2.2 | 58% | 11 | 0 | #69 | |
| · | Sal Stewart | Joey Cantillo | Fastball | +3.9 | +1.1 | 35% | 9 | 7 | #13 | |
| · | Matt Olson | Christian Scott | Fastball | +1.1 | +0.4 | 49% | 11 | 5 | #24 | |
| · | Christian Vazquez | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | -1.5 | +2.7 | 54% | 2 | 6 | #186 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Trey Yesavage | Fastball | +2.5 | -0.9 | 47% | 4 | 5 | #11 | |
| · | Lawrence Butler | Patrick Sandoval | Slider | +3.3 | +2.9 | 30% | 2 | 1 | #147 | |
| · | Dominic Canzone | Eric Lauer | Fastball | +2.2 | +0.0 | 44% | 8 | 11 | #1 | |
| · | James Wood | Trey Yesavage | Fastball | +2.3 | -0.9 | 47% | 11 | 5 | #5 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Davis Martin | Fastball | +6.0 | +0.4 | 26% | 15 | 1 | #19 | |
| · | Daylen Lile | Trey Yesavage | Splitter | +5.7 | -0.3 | 29% | 1 | 2 | #114 | |
| · | Ozzie Albies | Christian Scott | Fastball | +0.6 | +0.4 | 49% | 8 | 5 | #97 | |
| · | Xander Bogaerts | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +0.5 | -2.2 | 58% | 4 | 0 | #219 | |
| · | Chase Delauter | Brady Singer | Sinker | +0.7 | +0.3 | 48% | 1 | 10 | #49 | |
| · | Chase Delauter | Brady Singer | Slider | +4.9 | +0.1 | 29% | 2 | 5 | #49 | |
| · | Dominic Smith | Christian Scott | Fastball | +0.3 | +0.4 | 49% | 3 | 5 | #159 | |
| · | Gavin Sheets | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +0.2 | -2.2 | 58% | 6 | 0 | #166 | |
| · | Munetaka Murakami | Cam Schlittler | Fastball | +2.8 | -1.6 | 44% | 10 | 4 | #27 | |
| · | Junior Caminero | MacKenzie Gore | Fastball | +2.1 | -1.0 | 45% | 7 | 5 | #28 | |
| · | Dillon Dingler | Trevor Rogers | Fastball | +1.6 | -0.4 | 45% | 6 | 6 | #51 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+32.9 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+23.6 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.5 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.