Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-07-25T11:00:33-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
3
Edges That Hit HR
10%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-25
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Andre Pallante | Knuckle Curve | +15.3 | +1.8 | 18% | 2 | 3 | #44 | |
| · | Chase Delauter | Nick Martinez | Slider | +4.5 | +11.3 | 3% | 2 | 0 | #123 | |
| · | Elly De La Cruz | Andre Pallante | Knuckle Curve | +7.5 | +1.8 | 18% | 1 | 3 | #49 | |
| · | Alec Burleson | Hunter Greene | Fastball | +1.4 | -0.2 | 52% | 5 | 2 | #115 | |
| · | Byron Buxton | Mason Barnett | Fastball | +2.2 | +1.4 | 42% | 10 | 2 | #11 | |
| · | Sam Antonacci | Hunter Brown | Knuckle Curve | +8.4 | -0.3 | 20% | 0 | 0 | #137 | |
| · | Ildemaro Vargas | Foster Griffin | Cutter | +7.2 | -2.0 | 32% | 1 | 7 | #138 | |
| · | Jj Wetherholt | Hunter Greene | Fastball | +1.1 | -0.2 | 52% | 12 | 2 | #164 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Mitch Bratt | Fastball | +2.4 | +1.4 | 40% | 4 | 2 | #5 | |
| 💥 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Paul Skenes | Splitter | +10.7 | -0.9 | 11% | 4 | 0 | #82 | |
| · | Angel Martinez | Nick Martinez | Slider | +3.1 | +11.3 | 3% | 4 | 0 | #94 | |
| · | James Wood | Mitch Bratt | Fastball | +2.3 | +1.4 | 40% | 11 | 2 | #1 | |
| · | Jordan Walker | Hunter Greene | Fastball | +0.8 | -0.2 | 52% | 7 | 2 | #55 | |
| · | Ivan Herrera | Hunter Greene | Fastball | +0.5 | -0.2 | 52% | 5 | 2 | #211 | |
| · | Munetaka Murakami | Hunter Brown | Knuckle Curve | +7.4 | -0.3 | 20% | 1 | 0 | #24 | |
| · | Brandon Lowe | Shota Imanaga | Fastball | +2.4 | +0.5 | 40% | 9 | 11 | #58 | |
| · | Trevor Larnach | Mason Barnett | Fastball | +1.2 | +1.4 | 42% | 3 | 2 | #79 | |
| · | Bryan Reynolds | Shota Imanaga | Fastball | +2.5 | +0.5 | 40% | 6 | 11 | #90 | |
| · | Heliot Ramos | Ryan Johnson | Splitter | +6.7 | -1.4 | 26% | 1 | 0 | #52 | |
| · | Jacob Young | Mitch Bratt | Fastball | +1.5 | +1.4 | 40% | 5 | 2 | #60 | |
| · | Dalton Rushing | Nolan McLean | Curveball | +9.2 | -0.7 | 13% | 2 | 0 | #67 | |
| 💥 | George Springer | Sonny Gray | Cutter | +7.4 | -0.4 | 20% | 3 | 4 | #130 | |
| 💥 | Rafael Devers | Ryan Johnson | Splitter | +6.6 | -1.4 | 26% | 1 | 0 | #21 | |
| · | Casey Schmitt | Ryan Johnson | Sweeper | +7.0 | +1.2 | 16% | 5 | 1 | #26 | |
| · | Joc Pederson | Bryan Woo | Fastball | +1.5 | -1.0 | 48% | 8 | 5 | #35 | |
| · | Josh Bell | Mason Barnett | Fastball | +0.6 | +1.4 | 42% | 5 | 2 | #84 | |
| · | Jakob Marsee | JP Sears | Changeup | +2.4 | +4.5 | 23% | 1 | 1 | #203 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Ryan Weathers | Fastball | +3.6 | +1.9 | 26% | 11 | 9 | #15 | |
| · | Josh Jung | Bryan Woo | Fastball | +1.1 | -1.0 | 48% | 4 | 5 | #170 | |
| · | Luke Keaschall | Mason Barnett | Fastball | +0.4 | +1.4 | 42% | 4 | 2 | #204 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+32.9 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.4 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+22.7 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.