Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-07-18T11:00:32-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-18
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Bryan Reynolds | Logan Allen | Fastball | +2.9 | +12.6 | 21% | 6 | 2 | #62 | |
| · | Brandon Lowe | Logan Allen | Fastball | +2.7 | +12.6 | 21% | 9 | 2 | #40 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Emmet Sheehan | Fastball | +6.6 | +0.7 | 43% | 15 | 11 | #2 | |
| · | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Taj Bradley | Splitter | +12.1 | +0.2 | 20% | 4 | 1 | #32 | |
| · | Ryan O'Hearn | Logan Allen | Fastball | +1.3 | +12.6 | 21% | 7 | 2 | #78 | |
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Tomoyuki Sugano | Cutter | +10.9 | +3.0 | 10% | 3 | 5 | #22 | |
| · | Jake Mangum | Logan Allen | Fastball | +1.0 | +12.6 | 21% | 1 | 2 | #228 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | Emmet Sheehan | Fastball | +5.0 | +0.7 | 43% | 9 | 11 | #26 | |
| · | Colson Montgomery | Shane Bieber | Slider | +2.1 | +13.3 | 9% | 4 | 2 | #8 | |
| · | Dillon Dingler | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +1.2 | +1.6 | 54% | 5 | 3 | #42 | |
| · | Marcell Ozuna | Logan Allen | Fastball | -0.1 | +12.6 | 21% | 4 | 2 | #147 | |
| · | Nick Gonzales | Logan Allen | Fastball | -0.1 | +12.6 | 21% | 0 | 2 | #222 | |
| · | Kerry Carpenter | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.7 | +1.6 | 54% | 5 | 3 | #80 | |
| · | Spencer Torkelson | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.6 | +1.6 | 54% | 6 | 3 | #56 | |
| · | Juan Soto | Jesus Luzardo | Sweeper | +6.4 | -1.5 | 37% | 2 | 3 | #19 | |
| · | Sam Antonacci | Shane Bieber | Knuckle Curve | +8.4 | +1.2 | 19% | 0 | 0 | #63 | |
| · | Bryce Eldridge | Bryan Woo | Fastball | +3.8 | -1.2 | 48% | 5 | 4 | #120 | |
| · | Kevin Mcgonigle | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.3 | +1.6 | 54% | 2 | 3 | #181 | |
| · | Riley Greene | Grayson Rodriguez | Fastball | +0.0 | +1.6 | 54% | 6 | 3 | #72 | |
| · | Chase Meidroth | Shane Bieber | Slider | +0.8 | +13.3 | 9% | 3 | 2 | #125 | |
| · | Miguel Vargas | Shane Bieber | Slider | +0.6 | +13.3 | 9% | 2 | 2 | #9 | |
| · | Tristan Peters | Shane Bieber | Slider | +0.6 | +13.3 | 9% | 0 | 2 | #48 | |
| · | A.J. Ewing | Jesus Luzardo | Sweeper | +5.7 | -1.5 | 37% | 2 | 3 | #156 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Sean Manaea | Sweeper | +3.3 | +2.7 | 32% | 4 | 3 | #29 | |
| · | Colt Keith | Grayson Rodriguez | Curveball | +5.6 | +4.9 | 14% | 0 | 0 | #129 | |
| · | Spencer Steer | Tomoyuki Sugano | Splitter | +8.0 | -0.3 | 20% | 0 | 3 | #24 | |
| · | Munetaka Murakami | Shane Bieber | Fastball | +2.6 | +1.7 | 36% | 9 | 3 | #5 | |
| · | Yainer Diaz | Trevor Rogers | Fastball | +2.3 | -0.3 | 44% | 3 | 6 | #83 | |
| · | Gabriel Arias | Jared Jones | Curveball | +7.2 | +3.2 | 10% | 2 | 0 | #107 | |
| · | Jose Altuve | Trevor Rogers | Fastball | +2.4 | -0.3 | 44% | 4 | 6 | #138 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+27.9 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.5 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+22.4 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.