Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-07-05T11:00:39-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-07-05
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Jake Mccarthy | Tyler Mahle | Splitter | +31.0 | +1.4 | 25% | 2 | 3 | #41 | |
| · | Gabriel Arias | Chris Murphy | Curveball | +11.6 | +0.3 | 21% | 2 | 0 | #171 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Joe Ryan | Fastball | +6.5 | -0.3 | 45% | 13 | 6 | #4 | |
| · | Shohei Ohtani | JP Sears | Changeup | +3.0 | +10.0 | 25% | 2 | 1 | #5 | |
| · | Teoscar Hernandez | JP Sears | Changeup | +1.7 | +10.0 | 25% | 2 | 1 | #34 | |
| · | Esmerlyn Valdez | Cade Cavalli | Fastball | +6.8 | +0.4 | 36% | 3 | 3 | #53 | |
| · | Mookie Betts | JP Sears | Changeup | +1.4 | +10.0 | 25% | 1 | 1 | #22 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | Ryan Johnson | Sinker | +5.7 | +2.9 | 29% | 8 | 3 | #19 | |
| · | Andy Pages | JP Sears | Changeup | +0.8 | +10.0 | 25% | 1 | 1 | #23 | |
| · | Max Muncy | JP Sears | Changeup | +0.6 | +10.0 | 25% | 1 | 1 | #8 | |
| · | Logan O'Hoppe | Ranger Suarez | Curveball | +10.8 | -0.9 | 16% | 0 | 1 | #210 | |
| · | Dillon Dingler | Kumar Rocker | Slider | +6.1 | -1.4 | 38% | 5 | 1 | #46 | |
| · | Carter Jensen | Aaron Nola | Knuckle Curve | +6.4 | -0.7 | 34% | 1 | 6 | #38 | |
| · | Esmerlyn Valdez | Cade Cavalli | Knuckle Curve | +7.4 | -0.4 | 28% | 1 | 2 | #53 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +2.4 | -0.1 | 49% | 3 | 5 | #85 | |
| · | Kyle Karros | Tyler Mahle | Fastball | +2.6 | -0.4 | 48% | 3 | 6 | #69 | |
| · | Casey Schmitt | Tanner Gordon | Changeup | +7.0 | +1.5 | 22% | 4 | 1 | #40 | |
| · | Ceddanne Rafaela | Ryan Johnson | Splitter | +7.1 | +0.3 | 25% | 0 | 0 | #130 | |
| · | Freddie Freeman | JP Sears | Changeup | -0.7 | +10.0 | 25% | 0 | 1 | #11 | |
| · | Max Schuemann | Joe Ryan | Fastball | +3.0 | -0.3 | 45% | 1 | 6 | #36 | |
| · | Chase Delauter | Chris Murphy | Slider | +4.9 | +1.2 | 30% | 2 | 0 | #206 | |
| · | James Wood | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +1.7 | -0.1 | 49% | 7 | 5 | #16 | |
| · | Kyle Tucker | JP Sears | Changeup | -0.9 | +10.0 | 25% | 1 | 1 | #80 | |
| · | Xavier Edwards | Gage Jump | Fastball | +2.9 | -1.6 | 48% | 3 | 1 | #177 | |
| · | Jacob Young | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +1.3 | -0.1 | 49% | 4 | 5 | #174 | |
| · | Nick Kurtz | Eury Perez | Fastball | +1.7 | -0.3 | 47% | 9 | 6 | #3 | |
| · | Shea Langeliers | Eury Perez | Fastball | +1.6 | -0.3 | 47% | 9 | 6 | #10 | |
| · | Tyler Freeman | Tyler Mahle | Fastball | +1.7 | -0.4 | 48% | 1 | 6 | #188 | |
| · | Jorbit Vivas | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +1.1 | -0.1 | 49% | 1 | 5 | #212 | |
| · | Alex Freeland | JP Sears | Changeup | -1.6 | +10.0 | 25% | 0 | 1 | #98 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+27.2 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.0 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+23.0 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.