Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-06-22T17:00:20-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
2
Edges That Hit HR
7%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-06-22
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Francisco Alvarez | Shota Imanaga | Splitter | +10.3 | -0.8 | 33% | 1 | 6 | #118 | |
| · | Logan O'Hoppe | Kyle Bradish | Curveball | +12.1 | -0.2 | 22% | 0 | 2 | #104 | |
| · | Nicky Lopez | Tyler Phillips | Sinker | +9.1 | +2.2 | 27% | 0 | 2 | #210 | |
| · | Pavin Smith | Andre Pallante | Knuckle Curve | +10.4 | +1.2 | 18% | 0 | 2 | #208 | |
| · | Griffin Conine | Tyler Alexander | Fastball | +13.5 | -0.8 | 9% | 2 | 0 | #70 | |
| · | Carson Kelly | Kodai Senga | Cutter | +7.9 | +1.7 | 25% | 1 | 1 | #114 | |
| · | David Hamilton | Brady Singer | Sinker | +2.7 | +1.3 | 48% | 0 | 8 | #141 | |
| · | James Wood | Tim Mayza | Sinker | +1.6 | -2.0 | 63% | 2 | 1 | #23 | |
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Brandon Woodruff | Cutter | +13.2 | -2.5 | 12% | 2 | 0 | #38 | |
| · | Dalton Rushing | Zebby Matthews | Curveball | +11.6 | -0.8 | 14% | 2 | 1 | #57 | |
| · | Jackson Chourio | Brady Singer | Sinker | +2.2 | +1.3 | 48% | 2 | 8 | #3 | |
| · | Daylen Lile | Tim Mayza | Sinker | +1.5 | -2.0 | 63% | 2 | 1 | #167 | |
| · | Juan Soto | Shota Imanaga | Fastball | +3.9 | +0.2 | 43% | 7 | 6 | #10 | |
| · | Nathan Church | Merrill Kelly | Cutter | +6.2 | +5.3 | 15% | 2 | 5 | #128 | |
| 💥 | Amed Rosario | Framber Valdez | Sinker | +3.1 | +0.1 | 45% | 1 | 4 | #89 | |
| · | Sal Frelick | Brady Singer | Sinker | +1.8 | +1.3 | 48% | 1 | 8 | #166 | |
| · | Ryan Kreidler | Eric Lauer | Fastball | +3.2 | -0.1 | 45% | 2 | 9 | #45 | |
| · | Ryan Ward | Zebby Matthews | Sinker | +10.1 | +2.4 | 4% | 0 | 0 | #21 | |
| 💥 | Byron Buxton | Eric Lauer | Fastball | +2.6 | -0.1 | 45% | 9 | 9 | #1 | |
| · | Jasson Dominguez | Framber Valdez | Sinker | +2.5 | +0.1 | 45% | 0 | 4 | #110 | |
| · | Nico Hoerner | Kodai Senga | Sweeper | +7.9 | +3.4 | 9% | 1 | 1 | #191 | |
| · | Brice Turang | Brady Singer | Sinker | +0.9 | +1.3 | 48% | 1 | 8 | #25 | |
| · | Victor Caratini | Eric Lauer | Cutter | +6.7 | +2.1 | 18% | 3 | 4 | #115 | |
| · | Jordan Walker | Merrill Kelly | Changeup | +5.6 | +1.1 | 26% | 2 | 2 | #22 | |
| · | Matt Shaw | Kodai Senga | Fastball | +1.8 | +2.7 | 37% | 3 | 3 | #59 | |
| · | Griffin Conine | Tyler Alexander | Sinker | +6.5 | +0.4 | 24% | 1 | 0 | #70 | |
| · | Carter Jensen | Drew Rasmussen | Cutter | +6.2 | -1.7 | 33% | 3 | 3 | #86 | |
| · | Ryan Vilade | Michael Wacha | Curveball | +8.9 | +1.6 | 10% | 1 | 0 | #112 | |
| · | Alejandro Osuna | Tyler Phillips | Sinker | +4.7 | +2.2 | 27% | 0 | 2 | #213 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | Brady Singer | Sweeper | +6.0 | +4.9 | 10% | 3 | 4 | #4 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+26.4 RV allowed
Brady Singer
+23.0 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+22.9 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.