Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-06-21T11:00:22-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
5
Edges That Hit HR
17%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-06-21
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Spencer Jones | Chase Burns | Changeup | +12.0 | +9.7 | 6% | 2 | 2 | #7 | |
| 💥 | Ben Rice | Chase Burns | Fastball | +6.7 | -1.3 | 57% | 10 | 5 | #4 | |
| · | Vaughn Grissom | Jack Perkins | Sweeper | +9.5 | -1.0 | 31% | 2 | 1 | #144 | |
| · | Bryce Eldridge | Ryan Gusto | Slider | +3.7 | +11.2 | 13% | 1 | 1 | #16 | |
| · | Anthony Volpe | Chase Burns | Fastball | +3.2 | -1.3 | 57% | 1 | 5 | #101 | |
| · | Jasson Dominguez | Chase Burns | Slider | +7.8 | -2.1 | 36% | 2 | 3 | #39 | |
| 💥 | Ryan Vilade | Andrew Alvarez | Curveball | +8.9 | -1.6 | 29% | 1 | 0 | #173 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Nick Martinez | Cutter | +9.1 | +0.7 | 20% | 5 | 4 | #80 | |
| · | James Wood | Nick Martinez | Slider | +2.7 | +13.3 | 3% | 5 | 0 | #18 | |
| · | Daniel Susac | Ryan Gusto | Slider | +2.3 | +11.2 | 13% | 0 | 1 | #207 | |
| · | Sam Antonacci | Keider Montero | Knuckle Curve | +8.9 | +1.8 | 14% | 0 | 2 | #78 | |
| 💥 | Tyler Stephenson | Elmer Rodriguez | Sinker | +3.3 | +1.1 | 42% | 4 | 0 | #89 | |
| · | Dylan Crews | Nick Martinez | Slider | +2.2 | +13.3 | 3% | 2 | 0 | #75 | |
| · | Kazuma Okamoto | Shota Imanaga | Fastball | +3.1 | +0.2 | 43% | 7 | 6 | #20 | |
| · | Hunter Goodman | Jared Jones | Slider | +4.4 | +1.0 | 33% | 7 | 1 | #2 | |
| · | Kazuma Okamoto | Shota Imanaga | Splitter | +5.9 | -0.8 | 33% | 1 | 6 | #20 | |
| · | Casey Schmitt | Ryan Gusto | Changeup | +9.0 | -0.4 | 18% | 4 | 0 | #51 | |
| · | Cody Bellinger | Chase Burns | Slider | +6.2 | -2.1 | 36% | 5 | 3 | #52 | |
| · | Kyle Karros | Jared Jones | Fastball | +2.4 | +1.8 | 40% | 2 | 2 | #85 | |
| · | Jung Hoo Lee | Ryan Gusto | Slider | +1.1 | +11.2 | 13% | 0 | 1 | #174 | |
| 💥 | Pete Alonso | Emmet Sheehan | Fastball | +2.3 | +0.7 | 43% | 9 | 9 | #14 | |
| · | Nathan Lukes | Shota Imanaga | Splitter | +5.7 | -0.8 | 33% | 0 | 6 | #196 | |
| 💥 | Ben Rice | Chase Burns | Changeup | +3.2 | +9.7 | 6% | 3 | 2 | #4 | |
| · | Freddie Freeman | Brandon Young | Splitter | +7.5 | +0.1 | 21% | 1 | 0 | #37 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Nick Martinez | Slider | +1.2 | +13.3 | 3% | 2 | 0 | #80 | |
| · | Luke Raley | Payton Tolle | Fastball | +2.4 | -1.5 | 49% | 6 | 1 | #87 | |
| · | Austin Wells | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.5 | -1.3 | 57% | 3 | 5 | #154 | |
| · | Spencer Jones | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.3 | -1.3 | 57% | 0 | 5 | #7 | |
| · | Jj Bleday | Elmer Rodriguez | Sinker | +2.0 | +1.1 | 42% | 0 | 0 | #34 | |
| · | Matt Chapman | Ryan Gusto | Slider | +0.4 | +11.2 | 13% | 1 | 1 | #66 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+26.4 RV allowed
Brady Singer
+23.0 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+22.9 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.