Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-06-20T11:00:22-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
6
Edges That Hit HR
20%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-06-20
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Jake Mccarthy | Paul Skenes | Splitter | +25.4 | -0.4 | 12% | 1 | 0 | #143 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +6.3 | -0.8 | 48% | 9 | 5 | #3 | |
| 💥 | Paul Goldschmidt | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +6.0 | -0.8 | 48% | 6 | 5 | #16 | |
| · | Drake Baldwin | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +3.4 | -1.2 | 59% | 6 | 5 | #50 | |
| · | Otto Lopez | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +3.7 | -0.7 | 56% | 2 | 2 | #194 | |
| · | Matt Olson | Kyle Harrison | Slurve | +10.3 | -1.8 | 29% | 1 | 1 | #30 | |
| 💥 | Spencer Horwitz | Tomoyuki Sugano | Splitter | +10.5 | -0.2 | 20% | 1 | 2 | #25 | |
| · | Noelvi Marte | Will Warren | Sweeper | +9.4 | +0.8 | 21% | 1 | 1 | #20 | |
| · | Kody Clemens | Zac Gallen | Knuckle Curve | +8.6 | +2.1 | 20% | 0 | 2 | #21 | |
| · | Carson Kelly | Patrick Corbin | Cutter | +7.9 | +3.5 | 16% | 1 | 2 | #153 | |
| · | Dominic Smith | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +1.7 | -1.2 | 59% | 3 | 5 | #176 | |
| 💥 | Kyle Schwarber | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +2.8 | -1.1 | 53% | 8 | 3 | #12 | |
| · | George Springer | Colin Rea | Cutter | +10.5 | +2.4 | 6% | 3 | 0 | #43 | |
| · | Riley Greene | Sean Newcomb | Slurve | +6.0 | +0.5 | 33% | 0 | 2 | #89 | |
| · | Matt Olson | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +1.4 | -1.2 | 59% | 8 | 5 | #30 | |
| · | Heriberto Hernández | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +1.6 | -0.7 | 56% | 2 | 2 | #172 | |
| · | Max Muncy | Trevor Rogers | Fastball | +3.4 | +0.6 | 42% | 8 | 6 | #9 | |
| · | Yordan Alvarez | Joey Cantillo | Fastball | +3.3 | +1.4 | 40% | 7 | 7 | #29 | |
| 💥 | Kazuma Okamoto | Colin Rea | Fastball | +3.2 | +1.2 | 42% | 7 | 4 | #39 | |
| 💥 | Bryce Harper | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +2.3 | -1.1 | 53% | 7 | 3 | #53 | |
| · | Brice Matthews | Joey Cantillo | Cutter | +4.9 | +9.5 | 3% | 2 | 2 | #72 | |
| · | Anthony Volpe | Andrew Abbott | Fastball | +2.6 | -0.8 | 48% | 1 | 5 | #81 | |
| · | Connor Norby | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +0.6 | -0.7 | 56% | 1 | 2 | #159 | |
| · | Isaac Paredes | Joey Cantillo | Cutter | +4.4 | +9.5 | 3% | 2 | 2 | #111 | |
| · | J.P. Crawford | Connelly Early | Curveball | +8.1 | +2.1 | 12% | 2 | 2 | #133 | |
| · | Ildemaro Vargas | Taj Bradley | Cutter | +7.4 | -0.1 | 23% | 1 | 2 | #163 | |
| 💥 | Ozzie Albies | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +0.2 | -1.2 | 59% | 4 | 5 | #171 | |
| · | Freddie Freeman | Trevor Rogers | Fastball | +2.4 | +0.6 | 42% | 8 | 6 | #49 | |
| · | Brandon Marsh | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +1.2 | -1.1 | 53% | 3 | 3 | #61 | |
| · | Kyle Stowers | Trevor McDonald | Sinker | +0.3 | -0.7 | 56% | 0 | 2 | #71 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+26.4 RV allowed
Brady Singer
+23.0 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+22.9 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.