Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-06-16T17:00:36-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
5
Edges That Hit HR
17%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-06-16
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Nathaniel Lowe | Kodai Senga | Cutter | +15.5 | +1.8 | 22% | 2 | 1 | #19 | |
| 💥 | Spencer Jones | Davis Martin | Changeup | +20.1 | -2.9 | 16% | 2 | 1 | #36 | |
| · | Gavin Sheets | Andre Pallante | Knuckle Curve | +13.7 | +1.4 | 18% | 1 | 2 | #80 | |
| · | Alex Jackson | Kumar Rocker | Slider | +10.7 | -1.2 | 38% | 0 | 1 | #221 | |
| · | Eugenio Suárez | Kodai Senga | Cutter | +9.6 | +1.8 | 22% | 3 | 1 | #67 | |
| · | Logan O'Hoppe | Merrill Kelly | Curveball | +14.1 | -0.8 | 11% | 0 | 2 | #94 | |
| · | Sam Antonacci | Gerrit Cole | Knuckle Curve | +9.8 | +2.9 | 13% | 0 | 1 | #125 | |
| · | Andrew Vaughn | Slade Cecconi | Fastball | +8.4 | -0.6 | 31% | 3 | 4 | #128 | |
| 💥 | Esteury Ruiz | Jesús Luzardo | Fastball | +7.0 | +1.6 | 27% | 3 | 3 | #39 | |
| · | Matt Olson | Adrian Houser | Sinker | +3.3 | +0.8 | 46% | 5 | 7 | #4 | |
| · | Rodolfo Durán | Andre Pallante | Fastball | +7.4 | -0.2 | 30% | 3 | 4 | #38 | |
| · | Bryce Eldridge | Grant Holmes | Slider | +4.5 | +0.5 | 40% | 1 | 4 | #21 | |
| · | Juan Soto | Brady Singer | Fastball | +4.0 | +11.1 | 3% | 7 | 1 | #6 | |
| · | Christian Walker | Framber Valdez | Sinker | +3.0 | +0.0 | 46% | 2 | 4 | #46 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Michael Wacha | Cutter | +9.7 | +0.2 | 15% | 4 | 2 | #108 | |
| 💥 | Sal Stewart | Kodai Senga | Fastball | +3.6 | +1.5 | 38% | 5 | 2 | #30 | |
| · | Drew Romo | Gerrit Cole | Sinker | +4.6 | +8.7 | 8% | 1 | 1 | #109 | |
| · | Kazuma Okamoto | Payton Tolle | Fastball | +3.4 | -1.4 | 49% | 7 | 1 | #116 | |
| · | Drake Baldwin | Adrian Houser | Sinker | +2.1 | +0.8 | 46% | 3 | 7 | #26 | |
| 💥 | Ben Rice | Davis Martin | Fastball | +7.0 | +0.1 | 26% | 9 | 0 | #34 | |
| · | Alejandro Kirk | Payton Tolle | Sinker | +6.7 | +1.2 | 24% | 1 | 1 | #104 | |
| · | Juan Soto | Brady Singer | Sweeper | +6.5 | +4.9 | 10% | 2 | 4 | #6 | |
| · | Dillon Dingler | Hunter Brown | Slider | +9.9 | +0.9 | 9% | 5 | 0 | #9 | |
| · | Jj Bleday | Kodai Senga | Fastball | +3.0 | +1.5 | 38% | 4 | 2 | #27 | |
| · | Marcus Semien | Brady Singer | Sinker | +0.8 | +1.4 | 47% | 4 | 8 | #52 | |
| · | Kyle Higashioka | Zebby Matthews | Cutter | +7.7 | +3.4 | 10% | 1 | 1 | #69 | |
| · | Mauricio Dubón | Adrian Houser | Curveball | +6.9 | +4.3 | 10% | 2 | 1 | #88 | |
| · | Juan Soto | Brady Singer | Sinker | +0.6 | +1.4 | 47% | 1 | 8 | #6 | |
| 💥 | Brandon Lowe | Jack Perkins | Fastball | +3.5 | -0.2 | 40% | 8 | 0 | #28 | |
| · | Daniel Susac | Grant Holmes | Slider | +3.1 | +0.5 | 40% | 0 | 4 | #211 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+26.4 RV allowed
Brady Singer
+23.0 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+22.9 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.