Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-06-11T11:00:24-04:00
30
Arsenal Edges
6
Edges That Hit HR
20%
Connection Rate
Arsenal Edges · 2026-06-11
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Dillon Dingler | Zebby Matthews | Slider | +10.4 | -0.7 | 20% | 5 | 2 | #5 | |
| · | Esteury Ruiz | Merrill Kelly | Fastball | +6.6 | +1.8 | 27% | 3 | 5 | #8 | |
| · | Kody Clemens | Keider Montero | Knuckle Curve | +9.3 | +1.9 | 14% | 0 | 2 | #22 | |
| 💥 | Brandon Lowe | Justin Wrobleski | Fastball | +4.0 | -2.2 | 50% | 8 | 2 | #51 | |
| · | Kyle Higashioka | Michael Wacha | Cutter | +9.3 | +0.9 | 15% | 1 | 2 | #70 | |
| · | Kerry Carpenter | Zebby Matthews | Changeup | +8.6 | +1.8 | 14% | 3 | 0 | #15 | |
| · | Isaac Collins | Kumar Rocker | Slider | +5.3 | -1.1 | 38% | 1 | 1 | #121 | |
| · | Trevor Larnach | Keider Montero | Knuckle Curve | +8.0 | +1.9 | 14% | 0 | 2 | #94 | |
| · | Nolan Gorman | Christian Scott | Fastball | +1.5 | -0.4 | 51% | 5 | 0 | #95 | |
| · | Jordan Walker | Christian Scott | Fastball | +0.8 | -0.4 | 51% | 6 | 0 | #30 | |
| · | Bryan Reynolds | Justin Wrobleski | Fastball | +2.3 | -2.2 | 50% | 4 | 2 | #67 | |
| · | Adrian Del Castillo | Tyler Phillips | Splitter | +7.2 | -0.9 | 24% | 1 | 1 | #96 | |
| · | Jj Wetherholt | Christian Scott | Fastball | +0.8 | -0.4 | 51% | 7 | 0 | #113 | |
| · | Colson Montgomery | Martín Pérez | Cutter | +7.1 | -0.4 | 22% | 5 | 2 | #14 | |
| 💥 | Pete Alonso | Bryan Woo | Fastball | +2.2 | -1.8 | 49% | 7 | 2 | #23 | |
| 💥 | Alec Burleson | Christian Scott | Fastball | +0.5 | -0.4 | 51% | 3 | 0 | #54 | |
| · | Iván Herrera | Christian Scott | Fastball | +0.6 | -0.4 | 51% | 2 | 0 | #88 | |
| · | Andy Pages | Mitch Keller | Curveball | +8.2 | +1.8 | 7% | 1 | 1 | #58 | |
| · | Ryan O'Hearn | Justin Wrobleski | Fastball | +1.8 | -2.2 | 50% | 6 | 2 | #72 | |
| · | Miguel Vargas | Martín Pérez | Changeup | +5.0 | -1.5 | 33% | 2 | 2 | #13 | |
| 💥 | Juan Soto | Hunter Dobbins | Fastball | +3.7 | +0.3 | 32% | 6 | 0 | #16 | |
| · | Jake Mccarthy | Edward Cabrera | Sinker | +5.2 | +1.6 | 20% | 1 | 3 | #12 | |
| · | Ketel Marte | Tyler Phillips | Sinker | +4.6 | +0.3 | 27% | 3 | 0 | #56 | |
| · | Carter Jensen | Kumar Rocker | Sinker | +2.1 | +1.3 | 34% | 1 | 4 | #38 | |
| · | Nico Hoerner | Ryan Feltner | Sweeper | +9.2 | -1.4 | 12% | 1 | 0 | #83 | |
| · | Kyle Tucker | Mitch Keller | Sweeper | +6.1 | +0.9 | 17% | 1 | 2 | #110 | |
| 💥 | Dominic Canzone | Kyle Bradish | Curveball | +6.5 | -1.1 | 22% | 1 | 0 | #4 | |
| · | Adley Rutschman | Bryan Woo | Fastball | +1.1 | -1.8 | 49% | 3 | 2 | #24 | |
| 💥 | Shohei Ohtani | Mitch Keller | Sinker | +6.2 | +0.4 | 17% | 4 | 0 | #36 | |
| · | Xavier Edwards | Merrill Kelly | Fastball | +3.1 | +1.8 | 27% | 3 | 5 | #80 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+26.4 RV allowed
Brady Singer
+23.0 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+22.9 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.