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Great American Ball Park is live · 1.27×

PIT @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 7:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.15× Wind 6 mph slight_out 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

7:10p

+6 ↑

8:10p

+5 ↑

9:10p

+4 ↑

10:10p

+4 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +7

Best of game Sal Stewart conv 29 · vs Ramírez ⟷ Nick Gonzales conv 18 · vs Lowder → edge: Sal Stewart

ATTACK Yohan Ramírez RHP

leak 79

0.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · leakiest side of this game

1 Sal Stewart +390 C+ ●●●●●

2 Elly De La Cruz +350 C+ ●●●●○

3 Jj Bleday +330 C ●●●●○

FADE Rhett Lowder RHP · CIN

leak 60

1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nick Gonzales +750 D ●●●○○

2 Brandon Lowe +265 C+ ●●○○○

3 Ryan O'Hearn +400 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Sal Stewart: 13.9% barrels overall vs the BRK leak · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Sal Stewart ✶ vs Ramírez +390 0.221 · 90.5 · 9.3% 33.3% 25.6% F B O C+ 63

· — Elly De La Cruz vs Ramírez Edge +350 0.221 · 94.3 · 9.6% 23.1% 28.9% F B O C+ 64

· — Jj Bleday vs Ramírez Edge +330 0.239 · 89.0 · 8.1% 25.0% 26.8% F B O C 59

· — Nathaniel Lowe vs Ramírez Edge — 0.216 · 88.8 · 8.0% 20.0% 28.7% F B O C 59

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Lowder Edge +265 0.234 · 91.0 · 10.5% 8.3% 18.1% F B O C+ 63

· — Tyler Stephenson HOT vs Ramírez +400 0.149 · 91.0 · 8.4% 9.1% 16.7% F B O C 50

· — Eugenio Suarez HOT vs Ramírez +330 0.192 · 88.4 · 7.9% 0.0% 23.5% F B O C 50

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn COOL vs Lowder Edge +400 0.190 · 89.4 · 8.2% 7.1% 14.5% F B O C 55

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Lowder Edge +350 0.190 · 90.9 · 10.2% 7.1% 13.7% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 4 long shots

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Lowder +750 0.096 · 86.1 · 5.4% 28.6% 8.3% F B O D 43

· — Tj Friedl COOL vs Ramírez Edge — 0.084 · 87.4 · 4.0% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 37

· PIT Marcell Ozuna COOL vs Lowder +475 0.123 · 89.4 · 8.5% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 47

· PIT Jake Mangum COOL vs Lowder Edge +850 0.069 · 84.8 · 3.4% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.2% BRK 27.2% OFF 20.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Brandon Lowe L Edge

16.4% 7.6% 9.3% 12.1% C+ 63 +265

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.5% 15.3% 7.8% 11.6% C 57 +350

Ryan O'Hearn L Edge

8.5% 6.9% 3.6% 7.6% C 55 +400

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Marcell Ozuna R

8.3% 10.3% 0.0% 8.0% D 47 +475

Nick Gonzales R

2.6% 5.4% 0.0% 3.2% D 43 +750

117

Jake Mangum S Edge

2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% D 34 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Lowder's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 50.2% ← leak FB 49.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 6

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

12.2% 19.6% 14.6% C+ 64 +350

Sal Stewart R

9.5% 17.1% 13.9% C+ 63 +390

Jj Bleday L Edge

8.7% 12.8% 10.2% C 59 +330

Nathaniel Lowe L Edge

13.0% 9.3% 10.4% C 59 —

Eugenio Suarez R

5.9% 12.0% 10.2% C 50 +330

Tyler Stephenson R

7.5% 14.3% 11.6% C 50 +400

Long shots · 1 — below the fade line

107

Tj Friedl L Edge

4.0% 2.9% 2.6% D 37 —

Read the columns: the breaking family (50.2% usage) carries Ramírez's damage — BRK is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lowe Gonzales Cruz Stewart Bleday Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Ramírez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Sal Stewart +390 · 63

Elly De La Cruz +350 · 64

Jj Bleday +330 · 59

Nathaniel Lowe — · 59

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.15× Wind 6 mph slight_out 82°F open

↑

5 mph · slight_out

81°F

7:10p · peak

↑

4 mph · slight_out

80°F

8:10p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

77°F

9:10p

↑

3 mph · cross

73°F

10:10p

↑

3 mph · cross

71°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.27× 82°F, wind 6 mph NNE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Rhett Lowder · RHP 1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 63 C+ +265 · 13 0.234 91.0 10.5% 23.6%vs RHP 393 15.6% 8.3% 18.1% 25

2 Bryan Reynolds 57 C +350 WARM 25 0.190 90.9 10.2% 17.4%vs RHP 409 13.3% 7.1% 13.7% 26

3 Ryan O'Hearn 55 C +400 COOL 34 0.190 89.4 8.2% 22.4%vs RHP 385 13.8% 7.1% 14.5% 31

4 Marcell Ozuna 47 D +475 COOL 64 0.123 89.4 8.5% 14.3%vs RHP 404 8.8% 0.0% 8.4% 17

5 Nick Gonzales 43 D +750 WARM 85 0.096 86.1 5.4% 12.5%vs RHP 397 7.8% 28.6% 8.3% 40

6 Jake Mangum 34 D +850 COOL 117 0.069 84.8 3.4% 9.5%vs RHP 408 3.1% 0.0% 8.4% 36

vs Yohan Ramírez · RHP 0.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz 64 C+ +350 · 10 0.221 94.3 9.6% 20.4%vs RHP 398 17.2% 23.1% 28.9% 33

2 Sal Stewart ✶ 63 C+ +390 · 11 0.221 90.5 9.3% 21.7%vs RHP 393 15.2% 33.3% 25.6% 30

3 Jj Bleday 59 C +330 WARM 20 0.239 89.0 8.1% 23.5%vs RHP 388 20.0% 25.0% 26.8% 29

4 Nathaniel Lowe 59 C — · 22 0.216 88.8 8.0% 29.3%vs RHP 395 16.1% 20.0% 28.7% 26

5 Eugenio Suarez 50 C +330 HOT 47 0.192 88.4 7.9% 27.0%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 23.5% 21

6 Tyler Stephenson 50 C +400 HOT 52 0.149 91.0 8.4% 19.1%vs RHP 395 7.1% 9.1% 16.7% 18

7 Tj Friedl 37 D — COOL 107 0.084 87.4 4.0% 8.3%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 13

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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