TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ MIN

Neutral air · 1.03×

KC @ MIN

Target Field · 1:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.86× Wind 8 mph cross 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

-8 ↑

12:40p

-8 ↑

1:40p

-9 ↑

2:40p

-9 ↑

3:40p

-10 ↑

4:40p

best window is early — 12:40p at -8

Best of game Lane Thomas conv 20 · vs Ober ⟷ Kody Clemens conv 15 · vs Cameron → edge: Kody Clemens

ATTACK Bailey Ober RHP · MIN

leak 86

1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · leakiest side of this game

1 Lane Thomas +390 D ●●●○○

2 Jac Caglianone +265 D ●●○○○

3 Carter Jensen +350 D ●●○○○

FADE Noah Cameron LHP · KC

leak 85

1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kody Clemens — C ●●○○○

2 Trevor Larnach — D ●●○○○

3 Brooks Lee +525 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kody Clemens: 12.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 9.1%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIN Kody Clemens ✶ vs Cameron — 0.247 · 92.7 · 10.7% 9.1% 21.0% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· KC Lane Thomas vs Ober +390 0.168 · 89.5 · 7.7% 25.0% 15.4% F B O D 43

· MIN Trevor Larnach COOL vs Cameron — 0.161 · 87.1 · 8.4% 14.3% 10.6% F B O D 38

· KC Jac Caglianone vs Ober Edge +265 0.198 · 93.0 · 11.6% 11.1% 12.7% F B O D 49

· KC Carter Jensen vs Ober Edge +350 0.186 · 90.8 · 9.3% 9.1% 10.7% F B O D 44

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs Cameron Edge +525 0.175 · 87.6 · 6.0% 9.1% 9.3% F B O D 37

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Ober Edge +575 0.125 · 88.3 · 7.2% 9.1% 6.8% F B O D 34

· KC Salvador Perez vs Ober +350 0.154 · 89.1 · 9.6% 0.0% 14.1% F B O D 37

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Cameron Edge +330 0.172 · 89.3 · 10.7% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 42

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs Cameron Edge +425 0.168 · 90.0 · 9.5% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 40

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Ober Edge +425 0.163 · 89.9 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 37

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Cameron Edge +625 0.120 · 89.9 · 8.0% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 31

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Cameron Edge +750 0.083 · 84.7 · 5.2% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 25

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Cameron Edge +750 0.080 · 87.0 · 4.3% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

OFF 35.4% FB 35.0% BRK 29.6% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jac Caglianone L Edge

11.8% 15.2% 16.5% 14.9% D 49 +265

Carter Jensen L Edge

7.0% 11.2% 9.0% 9.6% D 44 +350

Lane Thomas R

5.6% 7.6% 2.7% 6.5% D 43 +390

104

Salvador Perez R

9.1% 13.6% 6.5% 10.1% D 37 +350

108

Michael Massey L Edge

2.4% 7.8% 6.1% 6.4% D 37 +425

118

Isaac Collins S Edge

0.0% 6.1% 11.1% 5.8% D 34 +575

Read the columns: no single family leads Ober's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.7% ← leak BRK 27.3% OFF 20.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kody Clemens L

8.9% 20.7% 11.9% 12.1% C 52 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Royce Lewis R Edge

13.5% 9.1% 8.7% 11.6% D 42 +330

Josh Bell S Edge

9.4% 14.1% 6.1% 9.7% D 40 +425

Trevor Larnach L

8.5% 8.3% 3.0% 7.6% D 38 —

106

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.4% 0.0% 1.3% 3.8% D 37 +525

123

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.7% 12.9% 6.5% 6.9% D 31 +625

139

Luke Keaschall R Edge

3.6% 2.5% 0.0% 2.9% D 25 +750

140

Austin Martin R Edge

2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% D 24 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.7% usage) carries Cameron's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Thomas Clemens

Legend

attack side — vs Ober fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 12:40p · roof open

Park 0.86× Wind 8 mph cross 85°F open

-8

↑

8 mph · cross

79°F

12:40p · peak

-8

↑

8 mph · cross

80°F

1:40p

-9

↑

9 mph · cross

82°F

2:40p

-9

↑

10 mph · cross

83°F

3:40p

-10

↑

11 mph · cross

83°F

4:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.03× 85°F, wind 8 mph S (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bailey Ober · RHP 1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 49 D +265 · 56 0.198 93.0 11.6% 26.8%vs RHP 416 12.8% 11.1% 12.7% 24

2 Carter Jensen 44 D +350 · 73 0.186 90.8 9.3% 17.1%vs RHP 394 14.5% 9.1% 10.7% 27

3 Lane Thomas 43 D +390 · 79 0.168 89.5 7.7% 20.7%vs RHP 409 15.7% 25.0% 15.4% 27

4 Salvador Perez 37 D +350 WARM 104 0.154 89.1 9.6% 20.3%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 29

5 Michael Massey 37 D +425 COOL 108 0.163 89.9 7.6% 9.0%vs RHP 398 5.7% 0.0% 8.3% 28

6 Isaac Collins 34 D +575 COOL 118 0.125 88.3 7.2% 9.3%vs RHP 394 6.6% 9.1% 6.8% 26

vs Noah Cameron · LHP 1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens ✶ 52 C — · 38 0.247 92.7 10.7% 26.3%vs LHP 389 17.2% 9.1% 21.0% 30

2 Royce Lewis 42 D +330 COOL 89 0.172 89.3 10.7% 15.4%vs LHP 396 15.4% 0.0% 9.1% 29

3 Josh Bell 40 D +425 COOL 92 0.168 90.0 9.5% 10.7%vs LHP 404 9.8% 0.0% 8.3% 26

4 Trevor Larnach 38 D — COOL 98 0.161 87.1 8.4% 28.6%vs LHP 400 8.2% 14.3% 10.6% 20

5 Brooks Lee 37 D +525 COOL 106 0.175 87.6 6.0% 15.4%vs LHP 370 14.3% 9.1% 9.3% 32

6 Victor Caratini 31 D +625 COOL 123 0.120 89.9 8.0% 14.3%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 23

7 Luke Keaschall 25 D +750 WARM 139 0.083 84.7 5.2% 4.5%vs LHP 370 4.4% 0.0% 5.8% 23

8 Austin Martin 24 D +750 COOL 140 0.080 87.0 4.3% 3.9%vs LHP 392 1.8% 0.0% 5.8% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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