TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ CWS

Suppressed air · 0.97×

NYY @ CWS

Rate Field · 2:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.97× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Munetaka Murakami conv 23 · vs Weathers ⟷ Spencer Jones conv 22 · vs Burke → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Ryan Weathers LHP · NYY

leak 81

1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.85 · leakiest side of this game

1 Munetaka Murakami — C+ ●●●●○

2 Chase Meidroth — D ●●○○○

3 Miguel Vargas — C ●●○○○

FADE Sean Burke RHP · CWS

leak 65

1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Spencer Jones — D ●●●○○

2 Ben Rice — C+ ●●●○○

3 Trent Grisham — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: 20.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Weathers — 0.300 · 94.1 · 13.7% 16.7% 29.3% F B O C+ 65

· NYY Ben Rice vs Burke Edge — 0.305 · 92.0 · 10.6% 21.4% 22.5% F B O C+ 63

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Weathers Edge — 0.240 · 90.8 · 11.7% 8.3% 19.2% F B O C 57

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Weathers — 0.236 · 89.2 · 10.9% 9.1% 17.6% F B O C 56

· CWS Randal Grichuk COOL vs Weathers Edge — 0.262 · 90.5 · 10.6% 0.0% 19.3% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· NYY Spencer Jones HOT vs Burke Edge — 0.123 · 94.8 · 7.0% 33.3% 11.6% F B O D 41

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Weathers Edge — 0.120 · 88.1 · 6.5% 18.2% 10.2% F B O D 37

· NYY Trent Grisham COOL vs Burke Edge — 0.173 · 90.8 · 8.6% 15.4% 10.4% F B O D 44

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs Burke — 0.219 · 86.4 · 9.0% 9.1% 13.7% F B O D 48

· NYY Austin Wells vs Burke Edge — 0.109 · 88.8 · 7.0% 10.0% 9.7% F B O D 36

· CWS Everson Pereira vs Weathers — 0.181 · 87.9 · 10.0% 0.0% 15.2% F B O D 43

· NYY Jasson Dominguez vs Burke Edge — 0.157 · 88.2 · 6.0% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 34

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon vs Burke Edge — 0.162 · 91.1 · 8.7% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 38

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Weathers Edge — 0.160 · 89.3 · 5.7% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 37

· CWS Edgar Quero COOL vs Weathers Edge — 0.044 · 90.9 · 4.7% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 29

· CWS Luisangel Acuna COOL vs Weathers Edge — 0.036 · 89.0 · 6.0% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 28

· NYY Anthony Volpe vs Burke — 0.088 · 88.2 · 5.5% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.5% ← leak BRK 38.9% OFF 2.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Ben Rice L Edge

18.5% 12.9% 12.5% 15.8% C+ 63 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Paul Goldschmidt R

14.8% 4.8% 10.3% 11.2% D 48 —

Trent Grisham L Edge

11.5% 8.9% 5.6% 10.2% D 44 —

Spencer Jones L Edge

8.3% 0.0% 16.7% 6.8% D 41 —

107

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

13.3% 4.9% 9.1% 10.5% D 38 —

120

Austin Wells L Edge

8.4% 6.5% 0.0% 6.7% D 36 —

128

Jasson Dominguez S Edge

4.8% 4.5% 5.6% 4.9% D 34 —

143

Anthony Volpe R

5.0% 2.3% 7.1% 4.3% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.5% usage) carries Burke's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 43.4% ← leak BRK 32.1% OFF 24.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Munetaka Murakami L

21.8% 19.3% 16.7% 20.3% C+ 65 —

Miguel Vargas R Edge

15.7% 12.6% 12.9% 14.5% C 57 —

Colson Montgomery L

12.4% 12.3% 14.7% 12.7% C 56 —

Randal Grichuk R Edge

8.2% 14.8% 23.5% 12.0% C 54 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Everson Pereira

8.0% 21.4% 0.0% 10.6% D 43 —

111

Chase Meidroth R Edge

4.2% 6.6% 4.2% 4.8% D 37 —

114

Braden Montgomery S Edge

3.2% 5.3% 3.0% 3.5% D 37 —

144

Edgar Quero S Edge

2.4% 0.0% 3.6% 2.3% D 29 —

148

Luisangel Acuna R Edge

4.1% 5.0% 0.0% 3.8% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.4% usage) carries Weathers's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Jones Murakami Vargas Montgomery Meidroth

Legend

attack side — vs Weathers fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Ben Rice — · 63

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 2:10p · roof unknown

Park 0.97× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Suppress · Combined 0.97× Unknown stadium — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Sean Burke · RHP 1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice 63 C+ — · 12 0.305 92.0 10.6% 34.3%vs RHP 390 26.7% 21.4% 22.5% 32

2 Paul Goldschmidt 48 D — · 62 0.219 86.4 9.0% 20.0%vs RHP 390 16.9% 9.1% 13.7% 27

3 Trent Grisham 44 D — COOL 84 0.173 90.8 8.6% 16.4%vs RHP 390 11.0% 15.4% 10.4% 36

4 Spencer Jones 41 D — HOT 99 0.123 94.8 7.0% 31.2%vs RHP 405 14.3% 33.3% 11.6% 7

5 Ryan Mcmahon 38 D — WARM 107 0.162 91.1 8.7% 21.4%vs RHP 384 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 21

6 Austin Wells 36 D — · 120 0.109 88.8 7.0% 14.7%vs RHP 386 9.7% 10.0% 9.7% 16

7 Jasson Dominguez 34 D — · 128 0.157 88.2 6.0% 26.3%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 38

8 Anthony Volpe 30 D — WARM 143 0.088 88.2 5.5% 0.0%vs RHP 409 1.9% 0.0% 5.9% 17

vs Ryan Weathers · LHP 1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.85 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 65 C+ — · 8 0.300 94.1 13.7% 26.7%vs LHP 407 17.0% 16.7% 29.3% 28

2 Miguel Vargas 57 C — COOL 24 0.240 90.8 11.7% 27.3%vs LHP 389 20.0% 8.3% 19.2% 38

3 Colson Montgomery 56 C — COOL 26 0.236 89.2 10.9% 32.0%vs LHP 398 23.5% 9.1% 17.6% 25

4 Randal Grichuk 54 C — COOL 34 0.262 90.5 10.6% 25.9%vs LHP 390 12.5% 0.0% 19.3% 12

5 Everson Pereira 43 D — · 90 0.181 87.9 10.0% 18.8% 407 8.3% 0.0% 15.2% 0

6 Chase Meidroth 37 D — WARM 111 0.120 88.1 6.5% 11.1%vs LHP 380 7.8% 18.2% 10.2% 34

7 Braden Montgomery 37 D — · 114 0.160 89.3 5.7% 0.0%vs LHP 371 4.8% 0.0% 8.5% 34

8 Edgar Quero 29 D — COOL 144 0.044 90.9 4.7% 10.0%vs LHP 389 4.3% 0.0% 8.4% 13

9 Luisangel Acuna 28 D — COOL 148 0.036 89.0 6.0% 0.0%vs LHP 416 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 10

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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