TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ SD

Playable air · 1.06×

SF @ SD

Petco Park · 9:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.88× Wind 7 mph slight_out 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

6:40p

-4 ↑

7:40p

-4 ↑

8:40p

-4 ↑

9:40p

-4 ↑

10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · -4 FIT

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 25 · vs Sears ⟷ Ty France conv 29 · vs Proxy → edge: Ty France

ATTACK JP Sears LHP · SD

leak 99

1.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.59 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +400 C ●●●●○

2 Bryce Eldridge +475 C ●●●●○

3 Willy Adames +400 D ●●●○○

FADE SF Bullpen Proxy · SF

leak 42

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ty France +400 C ●●●●○

2 Jackson Merrill +525 D ●●●●○

3 Manny Machado +280 C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ty France: Match 24.7% · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Ty France ✶ vs Proxy +400 0.255 · 92.4 · 11.5% 33.3% 24.7% F B O C 58

· SF Rafael Devers COOL vs Sears +400 0.233 · 92.3 · 9.6% 25.0% 25.7% F B O C 55

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Sears +475 0.207 · 92.5 · 10.4% 25.0% 22.8% F B O C 53

· SD Manny Machado vs Proxy +280 0.225 · 90.5 · 11.1% 25.0% 21.4% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· SD Jackson Merrill HOT vs Proxy +525 0.158 · 89.9 · 10.3% 36.4% 13.6% F B O D 47

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Sears Edge +400 0.201 · 87.9 · 8.6% 25.0% 17.1% F B O D 48

· SF Heliot Ramos COOL vs Sears Edge +370 0.172 · 92.1 · 10.9% 8.3% 10.5% F B O D 45

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Sears — 0.132 · 87.0 · 4.4% 9.1% 8.4% F B O D 31

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs Proxy — 0.182 · 87.7 · 6.8% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 39

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs Sears — 0.119 · 85.9 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 30

· SF Luis Arraez COOL vs Sears — 0.122 · 87.0 · 2.0% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 24

· SD Xander Bogaerts COOL vs Proxy +625 0.102 · 88.2 · 6.0% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 30

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Proxy +850 0.077 · 88.1 · 5.1% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 48.3% BRK 27.6% OFF 22.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Rafael Devers L

13.2% 8.2% 8.9% 11.1% C 55 +400

Bryce Eldridge L

13.7% 6.2% 18.5% 13.0% C 53 +475

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Willy Adames R Edge

8.3% 9.7% 12.0% 9.0% D 48 +400

Heliot Ramos R Edge

11.8% 17.7% 16.0% 14.2% D 45 +370

137

Jung Hoo Lee L

2.6% 2.8% 0.0% 2.4% D 31 —

141

Drew Gilbert L

2.8% 4.9% 0.0% 2.8% D 30 —

154

Luis Arraez L

0.4% 0.0% 2.0% 0.5% D 24 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Sears's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for SF Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Eldridge Adames France Machado Merrill

Legend

attack side — vs Sears fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Ty France +400 · 58

Rafael Devers +400 · 55

Bryce Eldridge +475 · 53

Manny Machado +280 · 55

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.88× Wind 7 mph slight_out 79°F open

-4

↑

7 mph · cross

75°F

6:40p · peak

-4

↑

7 mph · cross

75°F

7:40p

-4

↑

7 mph · cross

75°F

8:40p

-4

↑

7 mph · cross

75°F

9:40p

-4

↑

7 mph · cross

75°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 79°F, wind 7 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs JP Sears · LHP 1.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.59 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 55 C +400 COOL 28 0.233 92.3 9.6% 13.3%vs LHP 399 18.1% 25.0% 25.7% 31

2 Bryce Eldridge 53 C +475 · 35 0.207 92.5 10.4% 13.3%vs LHP 396 21.4% 25.0% 22.8% 26

3 Willy Adames 48 D +400 COOL 60 0.201 87.9 8.6% 12.5%vs LHP 388 15.4% 25.0% 17.1% 27

4 Heliot Ramos 45 D +370 COOL 75 0.172 92.1 10.9% 28.6%vs LHP 407 11.3% 8.3% 10.5% 36

5 Jung Hoo Lee 31 D — · 137 0.132 87.0 4.4% 11.8%vs LHP 375 5.2% 9.1% 8.4% 34

6 Drew Gilbert 30 D — HOT 141 0.119 85.9 4.8% 7.4% 398 3.3% 0.0% 7.8% 25

7 Luis Arraez 24 D — COOL 154 0.122 87.0 2.0% 4.0%vs LHP 367 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 44

vs SF Bullpen Proxy 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France ✶ 58 C +400 WARM 30 0.255 92.4 11.5% 27.6% 394 19.2% 33.3% 24.7% 39

2 Manny Machado 55 C +280 WARM 45 0.225 90.5 11.1% 22.1% 397 20.6% 25.0% 21.4% 41

3 Jackson Merrill 47 D +525 HOT 87 0.158 89.9 10.3% 14.4% 409 14.0% 36.4% 13.6% 39

4 Gavin Sheets 39 D — COOL 125 0.182 87.7 6.8% 18.2% 397 10.8% 0.0% 9.8% 29

5 Xander Bogaerts 30 D +625 COOL 152 0.102 88.2 6.0% 11.7% 396 8.1% 0.0% 6.5% 33

6 Jake Cronenworth 27 D +850 COOL 156 0.077 88.1 5.1% 9.7% 389 1.7% 0.0% 6.2% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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