TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ NYM

Suppressed air · 0.94×

MIA @ NYM

Citi Field · 7:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 5 mph in 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

7:10p

-2 ↑

8:10p

+0 ↑

9:10p

+0 ↑

10:10p

+1 ↑

11:10p

conditions build late — the 11:10p window peaks +1

Best of game Kyle Stowers conv 19 · vs McLean ⟷ Marcus Semien conv 20 · vs Pérez → edge: Kyle Stowers

ATTACK Nolan McLean RHP · NYM

leak 68

0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Stowers +425 D ●●●○○

2 Heriberto Hernández +425 D ●●○○○

3 Liam Hicks +950 D ●○○○○

FADE Eury Pérez RHP · MIA

leak 25

1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · stingy — thin edge

1 Marcus Semien — D ●●●○○

2 Francisco Lindor +390 D ●●●○○

3 Brett Baty +700 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Stowers: 12.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· NYM Marcus Semien vs Pérez — 0.144 · 86.6 · 8.9% 22.2% 16.9% F B O D 44

· MIA Kyle Stowers ✶ vs McLean Edge +425 0.215 · 91.8 · 9.1% 16.7% 22.3% F B O D 49

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Pérez Edge +390 0.192 · 91.6 · 10.0% 15.4% 17.3% F B O D 48

· NYM Brett Baty vs Pérez Edge +700 0.106 · 89.5 · 9.5% 18.2% 11.4% F B O D 39

· NYM Francisco Alvarez HOT vs Pérez +400 0.188 · 90.3 · 12.9% 0.0% 24.8% F B O D 47

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs McLean +425 0.237 · 92.2 · 9.4% 0.0% 23.9% F B O D 46

· MIA Liam Hicks COOL vs McLean Edge +950 0.157 · 85.2 · 5.2% 8.3% 9.9% F B O D 36

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs McLean +850 0.163 · 89.2 · 6.7% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 37

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Pérez +575 0.112 · 89.4 · 8.2% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 36

· NYM A.J. Ewing COOL vs Pérez Edge +700 0.146 · — · 8.2% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 35

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Pérez Edge +625 0.131 · 89.1 · 8.9% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 39

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs McLean Edge +950 0.094 · 86.8 · 4.8% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 28

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs McLean — 0.125 · 86.8 · 3.3% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 28

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs McLean Edge — 0.112 · 87.1 · 5.3% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 63.4% ← leak BRK 30.1% OFF 6.4% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Kyle Stowers L Edge

11.6% 18.0% 5.4% 12.1% D 49 +425

Heriberto Hernández R

12.7% 13.2% 14.3% 13.0% D 46 +425

105

Otto Lopez R

10.1% 3.9% 2.0% 6.7% D 37 +850

111

Liam Hicks L Edge

3.3% 5.8% 3.6% 3.9% D 36 +950

127

Xavier Edwards S Edge

5.0% 2.7% 3.2% 4.1% D 29 —

132

Jakob Marsee L Edge

2.7% 2.3% 8.3% 3.4% D 28 +950

133

Javier Sanoja R

1.5% 2.5% 0.0% 1.7% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.4% usage) carries McLean's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 55.4% ← leak BRK 34.8% OFF 9.8% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.1% 4.5% 8.6% 9.6% D 48 +390

Francisco Alvarez R

15.7% 16.4% 16.7% 16.0% D 47 +400

Marcus Semien R

10.6% 2.5% 8.3% 7.7% D 44 —

Brett Baty L Edge

7.7% 13.3% 4.7% 8.3% D 39 +700

Carson Benge L Edge

7.0% 9.9% 6.2% 7.6% D 39 +625

112

Bo Bichette R

4.5% 11.9% 0.0% 6.4% D 36 +575

113

A.J. Ewing L Edge

8.1% 7.3% 0.0% 6.4% D 35 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.4% usage) carries Pérez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stowers Lindor Semien Baty

Legend

attack side — vs McLean fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 5 mph in 77°F open

-3

↑

5 mph · cross

76°F

7:10p

-2

↑

3 mph · cross

76°F

8:10p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

75°F

9:10p

↑

2 mph · out

74°F

10:10p

↑

2 mph · out

74°F

11:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.94× 77°F, wind 5 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nolan McLean · RHP 0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers ✶ 49 D +425 · 55 0.215 91.8 9.1% 23.1%vs RHP 397 12.7% 16.7% 22.3% 25

2 Heriberto Hernández 46 D +425 WARM 65 0.237 92.2 9.4% 18.4%vs RHP 410 0.0% 0.0% 23.9% 26

3 Otto Lopez 37 D +850 COOL 105 0.163 89.2 6.7% 12.5%vs RHP 402 7.7% 0.0% 9.8% 33

4 Liam Hicks 36 D +950 COOL 111 0.157 85.2 5.2% 22.0%vs RHP 378 14.4% 8.3% 9.9% 32

5 Xavier Edwards 29 D — COOL 127 0.112 87.1 5.3% 3.3%vs RHP 396 4.8% 0.0% 6.3% 28

6 Jakob Marsee 28 D +950 WARM 132 0.094 86.8 4.8% 7.5%vs RHP 379 5.8% 0.0% 6.8% 17

7 Javier Sanoja 28 D — WARM 133 0.125 86.8 3.3% 3.3%vs RHP 385 4.3% 0.0% 6.7% 35

vs Eury Pérez · RHP 1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor 48 D +390 WARM 57 0.192 91.6 10.0% 14.7%vs RHP 395 10.4% 15.4% 17.3% 30

2 Francisco Alvarez 47 D +400 HOT 58 0.188 90.3 12.9% 28.6%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 24.8% 12

3 Marcus Semien 44 D — WARM 74 0.144 86.6 8.9% 18.2%vs RHP 391 11.5% 22.2% 16.9% 20

4 Brett Baty 39 D +700 · 94 0.106 89.5 9.5% 12.0%vs RHP 395 5.9% 18.2% 11.4% 14

5 Carson Benge 39 D +625 COOL 96 0.131 89.1 8.9% 13.1%vs RHP 399 8.5% 0.0% 6.9% 21

6 Bo Bichette 36 D +575 COOL 112 0.112 89.4 8.2% 9.8%vs RHP 385 8.6% 0.0% 8.1% 32

7 A.J. Ewing 35 D +700 COOL 113 0.146 — 8.2% 15.2%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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