TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ STL

Neutral air · 1.00×

CHC @ STL

Busch Stadium · 2:15p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.83× Wind 7 mph cross 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

-8 ↑

1:15p

-9 ↑

2:15p

-10 ↑

3:15p

-10 ↑

4:15p

-10 ↑

5:15p

best window is early — 1:15p at -8

Best of game Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 24 · vs Pallante ⟷ Jj Wetherholt conv 21 · vs Assad → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Andre Pallante RHP · STL

leak 82

0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.03 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +400 C ●●●●○

2 Seiya Suzuki +500 D ●●●○○

3 Alex Bregman +750 D ●●○○○

FADE Javier Assad RHP · CHC

leak 58

1.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.65 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jj Wetherholt +525 D ●●●○○

2 José Fermín — D ●○○○○

3 Jordan Walker +400 C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: 11.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ COOL vs Pallante Edge +400 0.250 · 90.0 · 8.3% 25.0% 23.6% F B O C 52

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Assad +400 0.221 · 93.5 · 10.4% 0.0% 13.4% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Pallante +500 0.208 · 88.9 · 7.6% 25.0% 19.4% F B O D 45

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Assad Edge +525 0.138 · 90.0 · 7.5% 33.3% 8.9% F B O D 38

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Pallante +750 0.128 · 87.9 · 4.9% 18.2% 8.7% F B O D 31

· CHC Michael Busch vs Pallante Edge +525 0.153 · 88.4 · 7.7% 16.7% 9.4% F B O D 38

· CHC Ian Happ vs Pallante Edge +575 0.204 · 89.4 · 8.6% 8.3% 12.1% F B O D 44

· CHC Michael Conforto COOL vs Pallante Edge — 0.236 · 92.0 · 8.5% 0.0% 18.5% F B O D 43

· STL José Fermín vs Assad — 0.129 · 85.8 · 4.4% 9.1% 6.2% F B O D 32

· CHC Nico Hoerner COOL vs Pallante — 0.095 · 86.0 · 2.2% 9.1% 5.6% F B O D 22

· STL Alec Burleson vs Assad Edge +475 0.179 · 91.7 · 9.5% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 44

· CHC Dansby Swanson vs Pallante +750 0.190 · 89.7 · 6.7% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 38

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Assad Edge +750 0.131 · 86.2 · 7.5% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 35

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Assad +700 0.135 · 89.1 · 6.5% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 32

· STL Masyn Winn vs Assad +850 0.081 · 88.2 · 5.0% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 27

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Pallante +850 0.112 · 87.9 · 5.9% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 49.2% ← leak BRK 47.9% OFF 2.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

10.1% 12.5% 12.5% 11.2% C 52 +400

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Seiya Suzuki R

10.5% 9.2% 10.5% 10.0% D 45 +500

Ian Happ S Edge

14.3% 17.9% 1.6% 11.8% D 44 +575

Michael Conforto L Edge

10.6% 18.8% 13.6% 12.5% D 43 —

Dansby Swanson R

6.8% 7.2% 13.3% 7.7% D 38 +750

100

Michael Busch L Edge

12.3% 4.8% 3.0% 9.6% D 38 +525

124

Alex Bregman R

2.8% 6.7% 6.7% 4.2% D 31 +750

128

Carson Kelly R

7.4% 3.1% 5.9% 5.9% D 29 +850

142

Nico Hoerner R

1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.2% usage) carries Pallante's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 74.6% ← leak BRK 18.4% OFF 7.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jordan Walker R

14.5% 12.4% 15.6% 13.9% C 50 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.2% 11.9% 11.4% 11.4% D 44 +475

101

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

10.2% 2.5% 2.2% 7.1% D 38 +525

115

Nathan Church L Edge

8.7% 6.0% 5.8% 7.1% D 35 +750

120

Ivan Herrera R

4.9% 5.6% 7.1% 5.4% D 32 +700

122

José Fermín R

3.1% 2.6% 0.0% 2.5% D 32 —

135

Masyn Winn R

3.6% 2.2% 3.4% 3.2% D 27 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (74.6% usage) carries Assad's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Busch Bregman Wetherholt

Legend

attack side — vs Pallante fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Pete Crow-Armstrong +400 · 52

Seiya Suzuki +500 · 45

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 1:15p · roof open

Park 0.83× Wind 7 mph cross 86°F open

-8

↑

7 mph · cross

80°F

1:15p · peak

-9

↑

8 mph · cross

82°F

2:15p

-10

↑

9 mph · cross

84°F

3:15p

-10

↑

9 mph · cross

85°F

4:15p

-10

↑

9 mph · cross

84°F

5:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.00× 86°F, wind 7 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Andre Pallante · RHP 0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.03 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 52 C +400 COOL 41 0.250 90.0 8.3% 24.7%vs RHP 392 20.4% 25.0% 23.6% 25

2 Seiya Suzuki 45 D +500 WARM 70 0.208 88.9 7.6% 23.5%vs RHP 407 16.1% 25.0% 19.4% 27

3 Ian Happ 44 D +575 · 75 0.204 89.4 8.6% 24.2%vs RHP 404 17.8% 8.3% 12.1% 25

4 Michael Conforto 43 D — COOL 80 0.236 92.0 8.5% 16.7%vs RHP 399 8.3% 0.0% 18.5% 14

5 Dansby Swanson 38 D +750 · 99 0.190 89.7 6.7% 17.5%vs RHP 403 12.3% 0.0% 9.8% 30

6 Michael Busch 38 D +525 · 100 0.153 88.4 7.7% 15.3%vs RHP 403 12.8% 16.7% 9.4% 35

7 Alex Bregman 31 D +750 · 124 0.128 87.9 4.9% 16.7%vs RHP 389 9.5% 18.2% 8.7% 31

8 Carson Kelly 29 D +850 COOL 128 0.112 87.9 5.9% 8.0%vs RHP 416 6.7% 0.0% 5.9% 24

9 Nico Hoerner 22 D — COOL 142 0.095 86.0 2.2% 5.3%vs RHP 383 4.7% 9.1% 5.6% 42

vs Javier Assad · RHP 1.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.65 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 50 C +400 COOL 48 0.221 93.5 10.4% 32.1%vs RHP 406 17.7% 0.0% 13.4% 35

2 Alec Burleson 44 D +475 · 77 0.179 91.7 9.5% 20.6%vs RHP 407 14.6% 0.0% 11.0% 39

3 Jj Wetherholt 38 D +525 · 101 0.138 90.0 7.5% 17.7%vs RHP 390 16.7% 33.3% 8.9% 37

4 Nathan Church 35 D +750 COOL 115 0.131 86.2 7.5% 20.0%vs RHP 388 8.5% 0.0% 8.0% 26

5 Ivan Herrera 32 D +700 COOL 120 0.135 89.1 6.5% 17.5%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 34

6 José Fermín 32 D — WARM 122 0.129 85.8 4.4% 10.5%vs RHP 388 7.0% 9.1% 6.2% 27

7 Masyn Winn 27 D +850 · 135 0.081 88.2 5.0% 10.3%vs RHP 390 3.9% 0.0% 6.1% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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