TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ TB

Suppressed air · 0.95×

TEX @ TB

Tropicana Field · 12:10p · 11 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 18 · vs Winn ⟷ Wyatt Langford conv 24 · vs McClanahan → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Cole Winn RHP

leak 92

1.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.70 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero +280 C+ ●●●○○

2 Cedric Mullins +575 D ●●○○○

3 Yandy Diaz +525 D ●○○○○

FADE Shane McClanahan LHP · TB

leak 13

0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · stingy — thin edge

1 Wyatt Langford +370 C ●●●●○

2 Jake Burger +330 C ●●●●○

3 Ezequiel Duran +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 20.5% · 14D pace 15.4% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs McClanahan Edge +370 0.233 · 89.4 · 8.7% 25.0% 23.3% F B O C 51

· TEX Jake Burger vs McClanahan Edge +330 0.191 · 89.9 · 9.7% 27.3% 20.0% F B O C 50

· — Junior Caminero ✶ COOL vs Winn +280 0.262 · 93.0 · 9.8% 15.4% 20.5% F B O C+ 60

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs McClanahan Edge +750 0.181 · 88.7 · 7.6% 16.7% 13.1% F B O D 43

· — Cedric Mullins COOL vs Winn Edge +575 0.146 · 88.0 · 5.5% 11.1% 8.9% F B O D 39

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs McClanahan +525 0.162 · 92.2 · 10.1% 8.3% 9.1% F B O D 43

· — Yandy Diaz COOL vs Winn +525 0.156 · 90.7 · 7.2% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 38

· — Jonathan Aranda vs Winn Edge +500 0.154 · 91.0 · 8.7% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 43

· — Ben Williamson COOL vs Winn — 0.078 · 87.3 · 3.5% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 28

· — Taylor Walls COOL vs Winn Edge — 0.072 · 85.3 · 4.5% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 27

· TEX Alejandro Osuna COOL vs McClanahan — 0.044 · 86.9 · 2.5% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 38.0% BRK 32.9% OFF 29.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Wyatt Langford R Edge

5.7% 12.8% 17.6% 8.9% C 51 +370

Jake Burger R Edge

9.9% 12.8% 10.3% 10.9% C 50 +330

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Ezequiel Duran R Edge

8.1% 6.9% 0.0% 6.6% D 43 +750

Brandon Nimmo L

9.8% 17.5% 10.0% 11.9% D 43 +525

141

Alejandro Osuna L

0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0.7% D 23 —

Read the columns: no single family leads McClanahan's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 61.3% BRK 22.3% OFF 14.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

16.5% 10.7% 6.2% 12.9% C+ 60 +280

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

10.8% 13.1% 5.6% 10.3% D 43 +500

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.2% 3.8% 8.6% 4.1% D 39 +575

Yandy Diaz R

5.0% 10.9% 5.0% 7.0% D 38 +525

131

Ben Williamson R

2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% D 28 —

136

Taylor Walls S Edge

3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% D 27 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Winn's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Langford Burger Duran Caminero

Legend

attack side — vs Winn fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Wyatt Langford +370 · 51

Jake Burger +330 · 50

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 12:10p · roof unknown

Park 0.95× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Suppress · Combined 0.95× Dome — weather irrelevant — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Shane McClanahan · LHP 0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Wyatt Langford 51 C +370 · 42 0.233 89.4 8.7% 25.0%vs LHP 401 17.6% 25.0% 23.3% 34

2 Jake Burger 50 C +330 WARM 49 0.191 89.9 9.7% 29.4%vs LHP 398 16.5% 27.3% 20.0% 27

3 Ezequiel Duran 43 D +750 WARM 81 0.181 88.7 7.6% 16.7%vs LHP 392 13.8% 16.7% 13.1% 30

4 Brandon Nimmo 43 D +525 COOL 84 0.162 92.2 10.1% 15.8%vs LHP 404 9.3% 8.3% 9.1% 29

5 Alejandro Osuna 23 D — COOL 141 0.044 86.9 2.5% 0.0%vs LHP 364 2.6% 0.0% 5.6% 12

vs Cole Winn · RHP 1.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.70 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 60 C+ +280 COOL 19 0.262 93.0 9.8% 40.0%vs RHP 408 26.0% 15.4% 20.5% 43

2 Jonathan Aranda 43 D +500 · 83 0.154 91.0 8.7% 18.4%vs RHP 387 12.0% 0.0% 9.2% 26

3 Cedric Mullins 39 D +575 COOL 95 0.146 88.0 5.5% 20.3%vs RHP 393 13.3% 11.1% 8.9% 24

4 Yandy Diaz 38 D +525 COOL 97 0.156 90.7 7.2% 22.5%vs RHP 386 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 40

5 Ben Williamson 28 D — COOL 131 0.078 87.3 3.5% 10.0%vs RHP 398 2.7% 0.0% 7.9% 27

6 Taylor Walls 27 D — COOL 136 0.072 85.3 4.5% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 16

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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