TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.77×

WSH @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.18× Wind 10 mph out 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

+16 ↑

7:15p

+15 ↑

8:15p

+13 ↑

9:15p

+10 ↑

10:15p

+8 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +16

Best of game Cj Abrams conv 44 · vs Holmes ⟷ Matt Olson conv 30 · vs Irvin → edge: Cj Abrams

ATTACK Grant Holmes RHP · ATL

leak 81

1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.44 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cj Abrams +330 B ●●●●●

2 Dylan Crews +425 C+ ●●●●●

3 James Wood +245 B ●●●○○

FADE Jake Irvin RHP · WSH

leak 65

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson +225 B ●●●●●

2 Drake Baldwin +305 C+ ●●●●○

3 Ozzie Albies +390 C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cj Abrams: 11.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH Cj Abrams ✶ vs Holmes Edge +330 0.271 · 89.8 · 9.9% 50.0% 37.5% F B O B 72

· WSH Dylan Crews HOT vs Holmes +425 0.166 · 90.9 · 9.4% 42.9% 21.3% F B O C+ 60

· ATL Matt Olson vs Irvin Edge +225 0.259 · 92.7 · 12.5% 28.6% 31.9% F B O B 73

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Irvin Edge +305 0.205 · 91.7 · 12.7% 28.6% 29.7% F B O C+ 67

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs Irvin Edge +390 0.180 · 86.8 · 7.0% 28.6% 21.4% F B O C 55

· WSH James Wood vs Holmes Edge +245 0.280 · 95.2 · 13.8% 8.3% 32.4% F B O B 76

· ATL Austin Riley HOT vs Irvin +370 0.135 · 90.7 · 10.9% 14.3% 18.2% F B O C 53

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Holmes +850 0.149 · 88.7 · 7.7% 10.0% 11.9% F B O C 50

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Holmes Edge +500 0.159 · 88.1 · 8.3% 10.0% 11.2% F B O C 51

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Holmes Edge +500 0.182 · 88.3 · 6.6% 0.0% 12.3% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 4 long shots

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Irvin Edge — 0.127 · 87.9 · 7.8% 16.7% 11.1% F B O D 47

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Irvin Edge +500 0.128 · 90.2 · 8.2% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 47

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Irvin +750 0.143 · 86.6 · 7.1% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 43

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Holmes Edge — 0.042 · 84.5 · 1.9% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 50.9% ← leak BRK 43.9% OFF 5.2% Overall Score

Prime targets · 2

James Wood L Edge

21.7% 27.3% 11.8% 22.0% B 76 +245

Cj Abrams L Edge

12.5% 8.9% 14.0% 11.5% B 72 +330

Neutral · 4

Dylan Crews R

6.4% 24.1% 5.9% 9.7% C+ 60 +425

Daylen Lile L Edge

8.3% 10.4% 4.0% 8.0% C 51 +500

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

7.6% 1.8% 2.6% 5.0% C 50 +500

Jacob Young R

8.6% 4.3% 3.4% 6.7% C 50 +850

Long shots · 1 — below the fade line

125

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.9% usage) carries Holmes's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 62.1% ← leak BRK 33.4% OFF 4.4% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

16.0% 11.1% 11.1% 14.0% B 73 +225

Neutral · 3

Drake Baldwin L Edge

15.2% 19.7% 5.4% 14.8% C+ 67 +305

Ozzie Albies S Edge

7.4% 1.0% 3.1% 4.5% C 55 +390

Austin Riley R

12.8% 10.8% 2.9% 10.9% C 53 +370

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

6.9% 4.4% 7.1% 6.3% D 47 +500

Dominic Smith L Edge

6.1% 6.2% 2.6% 5.5% D 47 —

Mauricio Dubon R

3.3% 6.5% 5.4% 4.6% D 43 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (62.1% usage) carries Irvin's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Wood Abrams Crews Olson Baldwin Albies Riley Smith

Legend

attack side — vs Holmes fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Cj Abrams +330 · 72

Dylan Crews +425 · 60

Matt Olson +225 · 73

Drake Baldwin +305 · 67

Ozzie Albies +390 · 55

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.18× Wind 10 mph out 83°F open

+16

↑

10 mph · out

79°F

7:15p · peak

+15

↑

9 mph · out

78°F

8:15p

+13

↑

7 mph · out

76°F

9:15p

+10

↑

5 mph · out

74°F

10:15p

↑

3 mph · out

73°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.77× 83°F, wind 10 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Grant Holmes · RHP 1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.44 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood 76 B +245 · 1 0.280 95.2 13.8% 37.5%vs RHP 413 27.8% 8.3% 32.4% 29

2 Cj Abrams ✶ 72 B +330 WARM 4 0.271 89.8 9.9% 32.4%vs RHP 396 42.9% 50.0% 37.5% 35

3 Dylan Crews 60 C+ +425 HOT 18 0.166 90.9 9.4% 13.8%vs RHP 406 20.5% 42.9% 21.3% 23

4 Daylen Lile 51 C +500 WARM 45 0.159 88.1 8.3% 11.2%vs RHP 403 8.3% 10.0% 11.2% 27

5 Keibert Ruiz 50 C +500 COOL 53 0.182 88.3 6.6% 8.2%vs RHP 377 10.9% 0.0% 12.3% 24

6 Jacob Young 50 C +850 COOL 54 0.149 88.7 7.7% 17.5%vs RHP 396 8.2% 10.0% 11.9% 24

7 Nasim Nunez 30 D — COOL 125 0.042 84.5 1.9% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 38

vs Jake Irvin · RHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 73 B +225 · 2 0.259 92.7 12.5% 32.3%vs RHP 409 22.0% 28.6% 31.9% 27

2 Drake Baldwin 67 C+ +305 WARM 6 0.205 91.7 12.7% 30.9%vs RHP 403 19.3% 28.6% 29.7% 35

3 Ozzie Albies 55 C +390 COOL 32 0.180 86.8 7.0% 13.7%vs RHP 386 14.7% 28.6% 21.4% 37

4 Austin Riley 53 C +370 HOT 37 0.135 90.7 10.9% 17.5%vs RHP 405 8.3% 14.3% 18.2% 26

5 Mike Yastrzemski 47 D +500 COOL 61 0.128 90.2 8.2% 15.7%vs RHP 387 7.4% 0.0% 11.9% 7

6 Dominic Smith 47 D — COOL 63 0.127 87.9 7.8% 14.3%vs RHP 390 7.6% 16.7% 11.1% 17

7 Mauricio Dubon 43 D +750 COOL 78 0.143 86.6 7.1% 12.8%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.